RogueWaves Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Wonder if Michigan may be able to do slightly better with ratios. Progged to be just a touch cooler in most of that state with the exception of the southeast corner. So Josh may struggle a bit more with ratios than the areas nw of there. Would love to stay at 32 or below, but even a couple hrs of 33F wouldn't be a total slop-fest. 2-24-16 comes to mind wrt the <10:1 storms (think RC mentioned it). That was a mushy mess but still plow-worthy and piles were made. I'll be satisfied with that outcome. Anything breaks better for us, all the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Total wild card at this point. One thing to keep in mind If we get a good burst and good dendrites it may not matter. Yesterdays snowfall, with temps of 30F-33F the entire time but very good dendrites/rates early on, produced 3.7" snow here on 0.23" liquid. On December 23, we had 2.4" of snow on 0.30" liquid with shredded flakes and temps near 0F. As of now, my guess would be that the banding sets up west, say coldwater/Jackson/Howell, per usual wit this kinda track near toledo or just east of there. Either way it's fun to have something to atleast track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 would 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Reluctant to really go above 3" here due to the temp concerns. I think the lake enhancement could be reaponsible for up to 1" or so, so the areas near the lake around Chicagoland and into northwest IN may come in with somewhat better amounts than areas farther west in LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 12Z Euro trending slightly east and more progressive 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Honestly at this range I tend to start looking less at globals and more at short term model guidance. But can't completely disregard what globals are showing. Gem/euro have been consistently more east and at times south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 48 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: would But.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 23, 2023 Author Share Posted January 23, 2023 19 minutes ago, madwx said: 12Z Euro trending slightly east and more progressive known bias over the past 4 years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 11 minutes ago, Spartman said: But.... ready 2 bust low 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miamarsden8 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Spartman said: But.... Ah, I see. The Cincinnati folks are going to be sad. Understood. Actually, it all depends on the temperature at this point, but I'm losing hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 While not as nerve racking as usual...Yet.... for the Kitchen Sink zone in N Central IN, some of the 12Z model soundings are enough to keep the foot shaking. If rates can stay heavy early Wed. should be ok but the yellow brick road doesn't lead to these parts lol. Regardless this things gonna be a cement truck laying sidewalk as it comes through. KIND is saying 5-9" for here and KIWX is calling 7-12" 2 miles away. I'll call 6 and my back ain't shoveling any of it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard22 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 23 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: While not as nerve racking as usual...Yet.... for the Kitchen Sink zone in N Central IN, some of the 12Z model soundings are enough to keep the foot shaking. If rates can stay heavy early Wed. should be ok but the yellow brick road doesn't lead to these parts lol. Regardless this things gonna be a cement truck laying sidewalk as it comes through. KIND is saying 5-9" for here and KIWX is calling 7-12" 2 miles away. I'll call 6 and my back ain't shoveling any of it I predict you will get a foot. When's the last time you had a foot of snow from a single storm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 If I were LOT, I don't know if I'd even bother issuing an advisory in most of the cwa. Total amounts may make it into advisory criteria in some areas, but magnitude of road impacts are questionable overall. And for Chicago metro, precip onset doesn't look to be until around the start of rush hour Wednesday morning, so not like there will be ample opportunity for conditions to go to shit prior to the commute. The best argument for an advisory may be the ridiculous lack of snow so far this winter, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: If I were LOT, I don't know if I'd even bother issuing an advisory in most of the cwa. Total amounts may make it into advisory criteria in some areas, but magnitude of road impacts are questionable overall. And for Chicago metro, precip onset doesn't look to be until around the start of rush hour Wednesday morning, so not like there will be ample opportunity for conditions to go to shit prior to the commute. The best argument for an advisory may be the ridiculous lack of snow so far this winter, lol Unless the NAM keeps trending north and is correct and the Metro gets 6+ inches of lake enhanced snow that sticks due to higher rates (if only) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Dtx never fails to find the dry slot, and nam been saying it's maybe coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 12 minutes ago, Chicago916 said: Unless the NAM keeps trending north and is correct and the Metro gets 6+ inches of lake enhanced snow that sticks due to higher rates (if only) We will know when it turns the corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, Stevo6899 said: Dtx never fails to find the dry slot, and nam been saying it's maybe coming. Euro been counter-balancing the GFS/NAM's more NW trends. Meet ya in the middle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 23, 2023 Author Share Posted January 23, 2023 17 minutes ago, Hoosier said: If I were LOT, I don't know if I'd even bother issuing an advisory in most of the cwa. Total amounts may make it into advisory criteria in some areas, but magnitude of road impacts are questionable overall. And for Chicago metro, precip onset doesn't look to be until around the start of rush hour Wednesday morning, so not like there will be ample opportunity for conditions to go to shit prior to the commute. The best argument for an advisory may be the ridiculous lack of snow so far this winter, lol got time to see the NW and stronger trends to take hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 46 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: While not as nerve racking as usual...Yet.... for the Kitchen Sink zone in N Central IN, some of the 12Z model soundings are enough to keep the foot shaking. If rates can stay heavy early Wed. should be ok but the yellow brick road doesn't lead to these parts lol. Regardless this things gonna be a cement truck laying sidewalk as it comes through. KIND is saying 5-9" for here and KIWX is calling 7-12" 2 miles away. I'll call 6 and my back ain't shoveling any of it I'll meet you in the banter thread on Thursday when we can talk about the ways we got screwed on this one too. Warm air, dry slot, miss south, miss north... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, KokomoWX said: I'll meet you in the banter thread on Thursday when we can talk about the ways we got screwed on this one too. Warm air, dry slot, miss south, miss north... Pingers 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 would 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, RogueWaves said: Euro been counter-balancing the GFS/NAM's more NW trends. Meet ya in the middle Yeah it's definitely going to be a nowcast for parts of Ohio, comparing the Euro to the NAM at 00z Thu there's about a 100 mile difference. NAM has the low around Bowling Green, OH while the Euro places it east of Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 23, 2023 Author Share Posted January 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: would no blink. Of course the NAM doesn't blink it usually just _ _ _ ts he bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Kurchera vs. 10:1. Pick your fighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 40 minutes ago, Hoosier said: If I were LOT, I don't know if I'd even bother issuing an advisory in most of the cwa. Total amounts may make it into advisory criteria in some areas, but magnitude of road impacts are questionable overall. And for Chicago metro, precip onset doesn't look to be until around the start of rush hour Wednesday morning, so not like there will be ample opportunity for conditions to go to shit prior to the commute. The best argument for an advisory may be the ridiculous lack of snow so far this winter, lol Maybe they’ll just forecast white rain. No accumulations for anyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Still like my 4" call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Maybe they’ll just forecast white rain. No accumulations for anyone! this event in december is def white rain imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 21 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Yeah it's definitely going to be a nowcast for parts of Ohio, comparing the Euro to the NAM at 00z Thu there's about a 100 mile difference. NAM has the low around Bowling Green, OH while the Euro places it east of Cleveland. Typically this battle would be a no brainer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 32 minutes ago, Baum said: got time to see the NW and stronger trends to take hold. 980mb over Lafayette 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 IWX snow map. Solid event. Throw in some lake effect on the backside and, baby, we got snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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