Stevo6899 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Curious if dtw will issue watches. The low looks to close off but not much precip in the deformation band once the low gets east of Detroit. Curious to see how this one evolves. Like many have stated, models struggle with phasing interactions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 18 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Curious if dtw will issue watches. The low looks to close off but not much precip in the deformation band once the low gets east of Detroit. Curious to see how this one evolves. Like many have stated, models struggle with phasing interactions. They are going with 2-6" as of now via forecast discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 40 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Curious if dtw will issue watches. The low looks to close off but not much precip in the deformation band once the low gets east of Detroit. Curious to see how this one evolves. Like many have stated, models struggle with phasing interactions. Can thank the lack of cold air for that 21 minutes ago, AWMT30 said: They are going with 2-6" as of now via forecast discussion. Saw that, lol'd. Downriver got 3" from today's "non-event" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, RogueWaves said: Can thank the lack of cold air for that Saw that, lol'd. Downriver got 3" from today's "non-event" Personally I am leaning a solid 4-8" event. Although I don't think it will be enough to get a Watch Or a Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 18z euro to Chicagoland: do not pass go, do not collect $200 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, mimillman said: 18z euro to Chicagoland: do not pass go, do not collect $200 Map us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 13 minutes ago, AWMT30 said: Personally I am leaning a solid 4-8" event. Although I don't think it will be enough to get a Watch Or a Warning. You mean a classic SEMI Land of the 5-9" special? Prolly. If it hits hard enough tho, impacts could be more on the order of a larger event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Map us 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, mimillman said: Oof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Dbl Oof. Like IZZI said, could go either way from here. Dumpster fire torch winter = OH magnet. Anyone find that a bit strange?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Long live futility. Long shall she reign 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Brooms and leaf blowers sure getting a workout this winter. Shovels and snowblowers naso much. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 34 minutes ago, mimillman said: Long live futility. Long shall she reign Heard the SREFs look better 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 24 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Brooms and leaf blowers sure getting a workout this winter. Shovels and snowblowers naso much. Snowblowers maybe, but I never saw so many Municiple plows scraping what amounted to slush scraps here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 48 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Oof 18z GFS was the best more amped run yet. Figures Euro would say "nah" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Heard the SREFs look better If only it wasn’t the SREF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, Baum said: once again underscores the uselessness of models. Euro has been consistent for nearly the last 4 days on this and as we get closer to event it comes in with a different solution. And this run affects far more than Chicago. Punting this to Ohio?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 23, 2023 Author Share Posted January 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Punting this to Ohio?? that run didn't even look good for Ohio. All you can hope is a blip. But we have seen this happen time and again over the past few years so I get the skeptics. On the plus, this has not been modeled as a huge hit for Chicago since last Thursday so an inch or less from 3" isn't a nightmare. I'll always be an optimist. And the pendulum will eventually swing back. Always, does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 The 18z EPS only showed a slight downtick from 12z in its 10:1 mean snowfall output and that op run is not significantly different from the previous few runs aside from the lower QPF. Surface low track is almost identical to the 06z run. Concern shouldn't be based off that one run. Even though late January isn't sun angle season, our bigger issue is the lack of cold air going into the event plus temps near to even above freezing during the snow. This will limit accumulations unless the higher rates can get farther north. So we need to see support for better banding and higher QPF resulting from that farther north. Otherwise, the 1-3"/2-4" range from Gino's AFD is probably the ceiling in the metro (on colder surfaces). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 23, 2023 Author Share Posted January 23, 2023 ^ what he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 I got nuthin' to complain about with these runs so far........ Yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
METALSTORM Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Got a WSW from LSX for the I-44 corridor and south. SGF and PAH in on the action too. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 32 minutes ago, METALSTORM said: Got a WSW from LSX for the I-44 corridor and south. SGF and PAH in on the action too. This should be a pretty good storm for those areas... relative to their climo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 0z NAM bumping north. Warning snows to southern Cook over to Hoosier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Definitely N @ h72 (snow lingers here until 12z Thur morning) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 0z RGEM with a tick west and north with the QPF shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 That 0z nam run was a nice improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 0Z GFS is just a tick NW of 18Z but otherwise almost identical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, madwx said: 0Z GFS is just a tick NW of 18Z but otherwise almost identical Didn't look side-by-side but I think it was deeper as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Didn't look side-by-side but I think it was deeper as well? it's negligibly weaker. About a millibar throughout day on Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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