Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Not to be a killjoy for those in the main axis across portions of IL/IN/OH/MI, but I wouldn't put too much stock in this snow maps showing a wide axis of 6-12" amounts. Most foreign guidance is a drier/less snowy than American guidance. We've seen that battle many times in the past, and know how it often plays out. Would lean towards a solid corridor of 2-5" to 4-7" in the main axis, locally higher. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 DTX goes warning for Detroit south, 6-8" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Chicago IL 213 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023 ILZ006-013-103-104-250415- /O.EXB.KLOT.WW.Y.0001.230125T0900Z-230126T0300Z/ Lake IL-DuPage-Northern Cook-Central Cook- Including the cities of Waukegan, Buffalo Grove, Mundelein, Gurnee, Naperville, Wheaton, Downers Grove, Lombard, Carol Stream, Evanston, Des Plaines, Schaumburg, Palatine, Northbrook, Chicago, Cicero, Oak Lawn, Oak Park, and La Grange 213 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Slippery travel due to falling snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches expected. * WHERE...Lake IL, DuPage, Northern Cook and Central Cook Counties. * WHEN...From 3 AM to 9 PM CST Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: Not to be a killjoy for those in the main axis across portions of IL/IN/OH/MI, but I wouldn't put too much stock in this snow maps showing a wide axis of 6-12" amounts. Most foreign guidance is a drier/less snowy than American guidance. We've seen that battle many times in the past, and know how it often plays out. Would lean towards a solid corridor of 2-5" to 4-7" in the main axis, locally higher. On 1/23/2023 at 11:59 AM, IWXwx said: Me kicked back watching model run after model run having FWA in the sweet spot for max snowfall potential, while the ORD crowd laments a possible miss south and the Ohio group fretting about mixing issues Me when the track takes a last minute 75 mile shift northwest or southeast I'm realistically calling for 5.5" here. Thanks for giving me confidence in my call. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 In Toledo. Let the late NW twist begin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, Baum said: In Toledo. Let the late NW twist begin. Before things get bad here, I would suggest stopping in at Ventura's Mexican restaurant. Welcome to T-Town! https://venturasmexicanrestaurant.com/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 22 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Before things get bad here, I would suggest stopping in at Ventura's Mexican restaurant. Welcome to T-Town! https://venturasmexicanrestaurant.com/ I'd prefer Tony packos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snohio Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Before things get bad here, I would suggest stopping in at Ventura's Mexican restaurant. Welcome to T-Town!https://venturasmexicanrestaurant.com/ To each their own, but if we're talking food there are better options. If you want a margarita it could be a good option. Snow wise, the models are still looking good for Toledo. Hopefully we can get the first real snow blower worthy snow of the season. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Hhr/rap both in the stronger/nw camp and looks good for detroit. Grain of salt I suppose looking at those past 12 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 “A localized "minima" in snow amounts and impacts may materialize between both bands near I-80 or the Kankakee River Valley.” Will there be enough to cover the grass out this way? Hasn’t happened yet this winter. Heading into Feb and still haven’t been able to cover the leaves and grass. Just one big prolonged November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 31 minutes ago, King James said: “A localized "minima" in snow amounts and impacts may materialize between both bands near I-80 or the Kankakee River Valley.” Will there be enough to cover the grass out this way? Hasn’t happened yet this winter. Heading into Feb and still haven’t been able to cover the leaves and grass. Just one big prolonged November Very possible we get little to nothing while places just to put north and south have snow on the ground. GFS has led the way on that scenario, remarkably. HRRR onboard with that too. Think a final call of T-1” looks golden. And the weekend event looks to miss north. Good times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 44 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Hhr/rap both in the stronger/nw camp and looks good for detroit. Grain of salt I suppose looking at those past 12 hrs. Seems like they may have initialized the low even 1-2mb weaker than it is now. So maybe possibly it could end up further nw if it ends up stronger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 hours ago, IWXwx said: Thanks for giving me confidence in my call. And in my call for 6 too. Still ain't shovelin' it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 23 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Seems like they may have initialized the low even 1-2mb weaker than it is now. So maybe possibly it could end up further nw if it ends up stronger. Yea I wouldn't be surprised to see the dry slot sneak into se mi. My early guess is what I've thought all along. Novi out to Jackson gonna jackpot, while NE/nw Ohio gets screwed over. Also areas to the east forecasted to get more, will end up with less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 6 hours ago, iBrian said: "name checks out" The Beavis of snow cover 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: DTX goes warning for Detroit south, 6-8" Then issues an updated snowfall map with 6 inch line further north than before, lol. A rare nice-to-have for a sig S. Stream system is zero "other p-types" in my hourly at DTW. 3rd bonus, lower DP's preserved a fair amount of patchy snow despite 40F and sun all damned day! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 While I'm sure it's the long range HRRR just HRRR-ing, I'm intrigued that it wants to really wrap this up to 992mb over Western OH / Southern IN and keep a closed 500mb low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Then issues an updated snowfall map with 6 inch line further north than before, lol. A rare nice-to-have for a sig S. Stream system is zero "other p-types" in my hourly at DTW. 3rd bonus, lower DP's preserved a fair amount of patchy snow despite 40F and sun all damned day! Per usual they'll issue warnings for macomb/oakland after 6 inches of snow is on the ground. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 26 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Yea I wouldn't be surprised to see the dry slot sneak into se mi. My early guess is what I've thought all along. Novi out to Jackson gonna jackpot, while NE/nw Ohio gets screwed over. Also areas to the east forecasted to get more, will end up with less. Normally a $$ call but Downriver has had the hot hand the past 2 seasons so there's that arguing against Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Normally a $$ call but Downriver has had the hot hand the past 2 seasons so there's that arguing against True but this is the first respectable low pressure we've had in years take this track and not get sheared out by the time it gets to us. I could be wrong but I think we finally see the further nw bands than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: True but this is the first respectable low pressure we've had in years take this track and not get sheared out by the time it gets to us. I could be wrong but I think we finally see the further nw bands than modeled. But we've got the x-fer east also tugging against all traditional odds. 991 mb actually 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 On 1/22/2023 at 10:17 PM, Dalfy said: For greater STL metro I think fair prediction is 4-6'' --minimum range: 2''; maximum 8''. Ugh, we just can't beat climo can we. Given how sheared and southeast this wave is, I'll be happy if we reach 3'' in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Ugh, we just can't beat climo can we. Given how sheared and southeast this wave is, I'll be happy if we reach 3'' in the city. Look at your radar dumbass not the modelSent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Already seeing some color on the county travel hazards map for Indiana. Allen county ( Ft. Wayne) and Hamilton county (northside of Indianapolis), are already under a travel watch. I guess some EMS managers are being proactive seeing how the snow has not even started yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Very nice comma head on the radar/satellite. Definitely has that "look," although it will be more bark than bite. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 11 minutes ago, Powerball said: Very nice comma head on the radar/satellite. Definitely has that "look," although it will be more bark than bite. DTX trying to keep this one on the rails National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 947 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023 .UPDATE... Evening observations are being monitored upstream for checks of onset timing on the SE MI snow event set to begin toward sunrise and then ramp up during the morning. The leading edge of precipitation associated with the textbook Gulf coast system is entering far southern IL/western KY at mid evening. This is about on schedule based on model comparisons which then project at least light snow ongoing by the 5AM to 7 AM Warning/Advisory start times from the Ohio border up to the northern Detroit suburbs. This initial phase of the event puts down just enough accumulation for hazardous travel during the morning travel peak in the Detroit metro area. Some wavering of coverage and intensity is then expected around mid morning as the leading isentropic ascent and moisture transport plays out against resident dry air over the south half of Lower Mi as indicated in the latest 00Z DTX sounding. A transition to a more dynamically forced phase of the event begins by late morning with a notable afternoon peak of coverage and intensity. The afternoon phase is driven by an excellent combination of coupled jet, short wave DCVA, and occlusion forcing that occurs along and north of a classic NW Ohio surface low track. A band of heavy snow is then expected around mid afternoon roughly centered on a line from Adrian to metro Detroit to Port Huron matching up with maximum elevated instability along the south flank of the TROWAL axis. Snow rate of 1 inch per hour is likely during this time with significant impacts to the evening peak travel period. Event total accumulation of 3 to 6 inches Advisory and 6 to 8 inches Warning are on target by the time snow diminishes Wednesday evening. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 12 minutes ago, Powerball said: Very nice comma head on the radar/satellite. Definitely has that "look," although it will be more bark than bite. This be the foundation snow. There are other dogs hunting in our future. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Impressive by DTW standards. Flash-backs of the Bliz of '99 airport nightmare by NW Airlines. Hopefully no repeat. Encouraged my sister NOT to fly out tomorrow and she re-booked for Thur. Issued at 657 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023 AVIATION... Early evening satellite imagery indicates a wedge of mostly clear sky over much of SE MI surrounded by MVFR clouds which are expected to fill in from the south and west during the night. MVFR then holds until snow spreads in from IN/OH toward sunrise when a quick progression down into IFR takes place. Some variation of intensity is expected during the morning while the leading edge moves south to north across the region. The peak snow intensity remains on track for the afternoon with LIFR/VLIFR in 1/2SM snow on average, and dips to 1/4SM in heavy snow also possible, for several hours as the low pressure system strengthens while moving through the Ohio valley. The low center moves over NW OH, Lake Erie, and southern Ontario by Wednesday evening resulting in a uniform east wind increasing and backing NW along the terminal corridor. Gusts near 25 knots add some blowing snow to the pattern as system snow diminishes mid Wednesday evening. For DTW... An area of MVFR clouds near the OH border move toward DTW mid to late evening and then hold with broken coverage until snow arrives toward sunrise. A 5 AM start time remains on track followed by a quick transition into IFR early in the morning. Some variation of intensity is possible during the mid to late morning before the peak snow rate occurs in the afternoon. Rate near 1 inch per hour in LIFR/VLIFR of 1/2SM to 1/4SM is likely for several hours before snow diminishes toward Wednesday evening. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight through Wednesday. * High for snow late tonight through Wednesday. * Moderate to high for visibility of 1/2SM or less Wednesday afternoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Guessing @Stebo not active here anymore?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 28 minutes ago, Powerball said: Very nice comma head on the radar/satellite. Definitely has that "look," although it will be more bark than bite. Idk man, Winter Storm Warnings up for a large swath of the country and tornadoes along the Gulf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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