Midwest/Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Snow January 24-26

[Dalfy]

2 hours ago, METALSTORM said:

Got a WSW from LSX for the I-44 corridor and south. SGF and PAH in on the action too.

For greater STL metro I think fair prediction is 4-6'' --minimum range: 2''; maximum 8''.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Chicago WX said:

0z NAM bumping north. Warning snows to southern Cook over to Hoosier.

Would be nice, but have concerns about garbage snow/inefficient accumulation during Wednesday afternoon.  Of course the way around that would be 1) earlier timing for the bulk of the snow or 2) heavier rates during Wednesday afternoon

[Chicago Storm]

1 hour ago, Chicago WX said:

0z NAM bumping north. Warning snows to southern Cook over to Hoosier.

Kuchera will be the way to go over 10:1 in this case.

[chuckster2012]

15 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Would be nice, but have concerns about garbage snow/inefficient accumulation during Wednesday afternoon.  Of course the way around that would be 1) earlier timing for the bulk of the snow or 2) heavier rates during Wednesday afternoon

Over the years, I've noticed that wherever I'm living, it never seems to snow much in the afternoon for some reason.

[A-L-E-K]

On 1/21/2023 at 9:03 AM, A-L-E-K said:

2.5 final call 

Looking solid enough

[Chambana]

WSW hoisted for my area, 4-6” with higher amounts possible, should be a solid event here. This track is always generous to my region. 

[KokomoWX]

NWS has 9.8" in the hour by hour for Kokomo.  I'll take the under.

[cyclone77]

I'll go 1-1.5" for the QCA.  Top 5 event.

[King James]

Going to WFH Wednesday and final call is 4.3inches here in the IKK

[A-L-E-K]

10 minutes ago, King James said:

Going to WFH Wednesday and final call is 4.3inches here in the IKK

over

[nwohweather]

Looks like we've got a little standoff between Northern IN and Cleveland with CLE saying IWX is overhyping it. I'll be honest I'm a little more conservative than most when it comes to snowfall totals but sheesh when models verbatim are showing 6-8" at Hour 66-72 going against a watch is banking heavily on a NW trend towards the GFS. 

Quote

Will acknowledge that some neighboring forecast offices have hoisted
a Winter Storm Watch for portions of Northwest Ohio, given the
current mean forecast blend for Tuesday night through Wednesday
night. The concern that exists for our area is that it would not
take too much of a shift west in the low track (even just 20-50
miles) for higher snow amounts in our NW Ohio counties to be axed in
half or more and the event to just stay an advisory worthy event.
One thing evident in the setup of the event is that while a broader
neutrally-tilted trough will support the system through the duration
of the event, a shortwave aloft will move through the flow with the
surface low and try to make this trough more negatively-tilted in
our region. This may allow for the low track to drift west just
enough for the whole forecast area to see other p-types than snow.

 

[Stevo6899]

29 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Looks like we've got a little standoff between Northern IN and Cleveland with CLE saying IWX is overhyping it. I'll be honest I'm a little more conservative than most when it comes to snowfall totals but sheesh when models verbatim are showing 6-8" at Hour 66-72 going against a watch is banking heavily on a NW trend towards the GFS. 

 

Meanwhile dtx doesn't even involve itself in the standoff. They just stand in the corner laughing cause they know they not issuing warnings regardless.

 

Interesting track and evolution on the 12z nam. Gets it down to 998, and closes off, which would setup banding somewhere in MI. I wonder why it doesn't keep tracking north and instead moves east? Confluence to the north?

[Powerball]

2 hours ago, nwohweather said:

Looks like we've got a little standoff between Northern IN and Cleveland with CLE saying IWX is overhyping it.

 

 

That's not what they said.

They merely said a NW/stronger solution (still plausible) could lead to lower amounts and mixing issues for the NW Ohio counties in their CWA.

That's not the same as saying the storm is being overhyped.

[Baum]

is it me or does the 12Z NAM have the golden track for Chicago?

[Stevo6899]

6 minutes ago, Baum said:

is it me or does the 12Z NAM have the golden track for Chicago?

The differences at Hour 57 between the nam and rgem are lol worthy.

[madwx]

18 minutes ago, Baum said:

is it me or does the 12Z NAM have the golden track for Chicago?

if by golden you mean 2-4" then yes

[A-L-E-K]

22 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

p confident we see a northern max band that overperforms somewhere over the cwa with a subsidence screw zone between it and the main systems snows further south out of our area

[Baum]

13 minutes ago, madwx said:

if by golden you mean 2-4" then yes

That's my point. Normally, this is the spot to be in. And,btw I'll take a 2-4" event.

[tuanis]

These marginal temps are a buzzkill. This system for the most part looks like a drippy slopfest. This thing would deliver if we had some cold air involved (the weekend potential has the goods to tap into... here's to hoping it materializes).

[A-L-E-K]

not wrong

[nwohweather]

1 hour ago, Powerball said:

 

That's not what they said.

They merely said a NW/stronger solution (still plausible) could lead to lower amounts and mixing issues for the NW Ohio counties in their CWA.

That's not the same as saying the storm is bring overhyped.

"With that, have passed on any headline issuance for now to avoid any snow hype that may end up falling short of expectations". So I would say they're afraid to overhype it

[RyanDe680]

11 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Kuchera will be the way to go over 10:1 in this case.

Yeah but that depends on what it becomes after hitting the ground.  

[Radtechwxman]

Liking the look of nam/namnest for here. I can't believe I just mouthed those words. Gfs a bit more se of nam but not too far off. Hrrr/rap look fairly se at their long range but also it's their long range and would take it with a grain of salt. Currently going with 2-4in optimistically but 1-2in wouldn't shock me. 

[Hoosier]

58 minutes ago, tuanis said:

These marginal temps are a buzzkill. This system for the most part looks like a drippy slopfest. This thing would deliver if we had some cold air involved (the weekend potential has the goods to tap into... here's to hoping it materializes).

LOT actually mentioned ratios of 10-13:1.  I could see that during times of heavier rates/banding, but not sure as an event average (especially that higher end).  I'll consider it a win if we end up at 10:1

[IWXwx]

Me kicked back watching model run after model run having FWA in the sweet spot for max snowfall potential, while the ORD crowd laments a possible miss south and the Ohio group fretting about mixing issues

Me when the track takes a last minute 75 mile shift northwest or southeast

I'm realistically calling for 5.5" here.

[michsnowfreak]

Looking out my window at a Winter wonderland and seeing heavy snow in the forecast grids for Wednesday. Winter is back!

[Chambana]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Looking out my window at a Winter wonderland and seeing heavy snow in the forecast grids for Wednesday. Winter is back!

No doubt. I’m thankful for a storm. I may or may not have put in for a personal day Wednesday  can’t take the kid out of me when it comes to snow lol.

 

little worried about ground and air temps, but let’s shoot for 6”. CMI always fairs well with this track. 

[RobertSul]

3 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Meanwhile dtx doesn't even involve itself in the standoff. They just stand in the corner laughing cause they know they not issuing warnings regardless.

 

Interesting track and evolution on the 12z nam. Gets it down to 998, and closes off, which would setup banding somewhere in MI. I wonder why it doesn't keep tracking north and instead moves east? Confluence to the north?

DTX is the dude hitting the pipe while the other two offices go at it.

[Hoosier]

Wonder if Michigan may be able to do slightly better with ratios.  Progged to be just a touch cooler in most of that state with the exception of the southeast corner.  So Josh may struggle a bit more with ratios than the areas nw of there.

[michsnowfreak]

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Wonder if Michigan may be able to do slightly better with ratios.  Progged to be just a touch cooler in most of that state with the exception of the southeast corner.  So Josh may struggle a bit more with ratios than the areas nw of there.

Total wild card at this point. One thing to keep in mind If we get a good burst and good dendrites it may not matter. Yesterdays snowfall, with temps of 30F-33F the entire time but very good dendrites/rates early on, produced 3.7" snow here on 0.23" liquid. On December 23, we had 2.4" of snow on 0.30" liquid with shredded flakes and temps near 0F.