Genug Shoyn Mit warm and brown! Is Jan 19-20 a storm to shift the vibe?

[jbenedet]

For all the talk of poor antecedent airmass. …

Not really. 
 

Low level CAD begins begins tonight, on northwest winds, so we get a fresh injection of low 20 dews. 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

For all the talk of poor antecedent airmass. …

Not really. 
 

Low level CAD begins begins tonight, on northwest winds, so we get a fresh injection of low 20 dews. 

 

 

Even at SNH 850-925 has to wetbulb to get below 0C. It's a rather poor airmass all things considered, but works for those areas into ME and VT.

[ORH_wxman]

GFS is trying to rip an isothermal paste bomb for ORH now...that shortwave is getting compressed a bit on the 12z runs. That shortwave north of CAR is stronger. Again, not totally buying it down to the pike, but that is a good sign for the Rt 2 crowd....gives them a little more wiggle room for any north ticks that may try to happen in the final 24h.

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Even at SNH 850-925 has to wetbulb to get below 0C. It's a rather poor airmass all things considered, but works for those areas into ME and VT.

Yeah, it's looking like we'll get max wetbulbs down around -2C through NH during the day Thursday. I'm less worried about too much rain in southern NH, more worried about the airmass being too marginal to really stack up the snow if things are partially or close to melting.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is trying to rip an isothermal paste bomb for ORH now...that shortwave is getting compressed a bit on the 12z runs. That shortwave north of CAR is stronger. Again, not totally buying it down to the pike, but that is a good sign for the Rt 2 crowd....gives them a little more wiggle room for any north ticks that may try to happen in the final 24h.

Sounding is a blue bomb there lol. 

[jbenedet]

I think this is a nowcast on those dewpoints out ORH to NW CT. 

Wake up to find TD obs 5 degrees colder than progged. Will see. If the 850 low wants to hang on like the NAM, it won't matter in terms of snow accums, just more frozen. 

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sounding is a blue bomb there lol. 

You have to smell the taint with this one, to get the best totals. The best lift in the IVT is following that marginal line. Those who marginally cash in on the first push will capitalize best on IVT. 

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is trying to rip an isothermal paste bomb for ORH now...that shortwave is getting compressed a bit on the 12z runs. That shortwave north of CAR is stronger. Again, not totally buying it down to the pike, but that is a good sign for the Rt 2 crowd....gives them a little more wiggle room for any north ticks that may try to happen in the final 24h.

Sounds like another MLK day storm bloodbath to me 

[OceanStWx]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is trying to rip an isothermal paste bomb for ORH now...that shortwave is getting compressed a bit on the 12z runs. That shortwave north of CAR is stronger. Again, not totally buying it down to the pike, but that is a good sign for the Rt 2 crowd....gives them a little more wiggle room for any north ticks that may try to happen in the final 24h.

The NAM even gets max wetbulbs down to 0 to Long Island Sound Thursday. The problem is they rocket up to +1/+2 as the precip starts. Wetbulb 0 hangs out right around Route 2. 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I think this is a nowcast on those dewpoints out ORH to NW CT. 

Wake up to find TD obs 5 degrees colder than progged. Will see. If the 850 low wants to hang on like the NAM, it won't matter in terms of snow accums, just more frozen. 

As far as for interior SNE:

I don't have a problem with "correction vectoring" the BL colder, "IF" we can verify even a modest +PP CNE    ... mentioned that as an 'in principle' concept two days ago.  

And those can be almost silent, too.  It really doesn't take much ... and once the ageostrophy starts up, it can be quite weak but if it feeds into a marginal scenario that's begging for a reason to flop either + or - ... that sensitivity can decide.   Looking for almost nondescript boundaries or momentum to suggest -

[40/70 Benchmark]

45 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah it's been remarkably consistent with that axis... 

I looked at the old FOUS grid. It maintains essentially an isothermic 0C sounding through 800 mb over Logan, with .53" QPF ... hmm..  The numbers were 0C, 0C, +1C,  at 980, 900, and 800 mb respectively.

Not sure that much QPF loaded through a column like that would necessarily be rain... Comparing those numbers to the synoptic tapestry, it's near-by.  Probably that's +2, +2, +4 just south of Logan out along the Pike  - first batch...    

IF IF IF that layout verifies, we probably end up with 6" along Rt 2, ranging to almost nothing along the Pike. 

That may chap some winter enthusiast asses but ...I don't make the rules of these games.

I'd live-

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is trying to rip an isothermal paste bomb for ORH now...that shortwave is getting compressed a bit on the 12z runs. That shortwave north of CAR is stronger. Again, not totally buying it down to the pike, but that is a good sign for the Rt 2 crowd....gives them a little more wiggle room for any north ticks that may try to happen in the final 24h.

I may finally catch a break.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I may finally catch a break.

These are def the types of runs you want to see so far at 12z to give yourself just a little big of wiggle room. Of course, the Euro could piss in your cheerios which we've seen too much of this year. But I'm starting to feel a bit more optimistic for the NH border region than I did yesterday.

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/01/two-pronged-storm-likely-thursday.html

[weathafella]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/01/two-pronged-storm-likely-thursday.html

I think this is a better call than BOX because it acknowledges latitude as the main variant.

[CoastalWx]

Euro is looking interesting now a little further south into MA. For sure rt 2 area. 

[dendrite]

SNE trying to steal my snow again.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is looking interesting now a little further south into MA. For sure rt 2 area. 

How is the front end looking?

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Regg lead the way. Further cooling coming? 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Euro maps?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

How is the front end looking?

 

Looks good for you. Juicier N of pike.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Euro maps?

Pivotal clown thru 48 here... use with trepidation

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023011812&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

[wxeyeNH]

New Euro clown 10:1

Jackpot just north of BOS?

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks good for you. Juicier N of pike.

Ray might finally get his jackpot fetish storm

[OceanStWx]

Just now, wxeyeNH said:

New Euro clown 10:1

Jackpot just north of BOS?

If you toggle between that and Kuchie you can see the Essex Co has a lot of mixed contamination there.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, wxeyeNH said:

New Euro clown 10:1

Jackpot just north of BOS?

Yeah I was just looking at the synoptics and was going to say that route 2 looks like it takes a pretty good thump Thur on this 12 Z

…real real narrow corridor

[dryslot]

Jack looks like PSM

[Typhoon Tip]

Looks about the same as 0Z just timing is slightly different?

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Jack looks like PSM

Which means congrats Dendrite.

[dryslot]

Lopped off some qpf in CNE/NNE.