Genug Shoyn Mit warm and brown! Is Jan 19-20 a storm to shift the vibe?

[wxeyeNH]

32.3/24F  Light snow has started.  Radar looks like crap.  Hum?  Our 8"ish forecast looks in jeopardy.  At least I'm lucky that I'm not loosing anything to rain.

[klw]

Snow came in pretty fast just before 6.  Nice and moderate . 30f

[Torch Tiger]

good news; precip turned over to rain!  34.5

[wx2fish]

Light Sleet/rain mix. 33F. A whole 0.02" through the Davis so far. Well see what happens with some better lift in a bit. 

[Ginx snewx]

Is Ray still smilin?

[#NoPoles]

13 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Locals talking at the bar about a big snow dump coming tonight. Seems like that might be in jeopardy.

 

radar looks like shit 

Where are you staying? I was at cranmore today checking on something and the skiing looked good

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Rays area into SE NH is counting on that 03z to 06z period where it just goes gangbusters for a few hours. We’ll see if that verifies enough to give several inches. 

Yep. Gonna have to hope it comes through. 

[DomNH]

RAPL

[512high]

6 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Light Sleet/rain mix. 33F. A whole 0.02" through the Davis so far. Well see what happens with some better lift in a bit. 

33F/ .04", sleet rain

[NW_of_GYX]

24 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Locals talking at the bar about a big snow dump coming tonight. Seems like that might be in jeopardy.

 

radar looks like shit 

Holy shit man relax and enjoy it. Skiing will be a whole lot better tomorrow than it was today. 

[lurker]

33.3F and sleet, 9 mi southwest of KCON.

[wxeyeNH]

31.8/25  Light to almost moderate snow.  Started as snow at 32.3 but has fallen back.  Everything immediately coated.

[dryslot]

36 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

32.3/24F  Light snow has started.  Radar looks like crap.  Hum?  Our 8"ish forecast looks in jeopardy.  At least I'm lucky that I'm not loosing anything to rain.

Check back in at 4 am..............

[Damage In Tolland]

40 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

 

 

Will there be frownin ‘ instead of smilin ‘? Too early spikin ‘?

[HoarfrostHubb]

This storm appears to…what is the proper sentiment?

…blow

[wx2fish]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will there be frownin ‘ instead of smilin ‘? Too early spikin ‘?

I'd be leary slashing that far into NH this early. Could pull that just tomorrow. If radar is still flaccid at 10pm maybe

[wxmanmitch]

I posed this question over on Twitter and I'll pose it here too, but I wonder if the loss of weather balloon launches at both Albany, NY and Chatham, MA contributed to today's precipitation type bust? Albany's is due to the apparent Helium shortage and Chatham's due to beach erosion threatening the launch site. Without this valuable upper air data, I wonder if the warm layer aloft was not adequately sampled prior to data ingestion into the 12z model suite, leading to the models predicting colder p-types than what they should have been. After all, a model is only as good as the data that goes into it; hence the term I learned in NWP class back in the day: "garbage in, garbage out". 

Even today's 12z 3-km NAM (which is usually the warmest among the guidance in these scenarios) had many areas in N MA, S VT, and S NH snowing for a few hours before eventually flipping to sleet and freezing rain. This would've likely led to a few inches before the changeover, but instead it was PL/RA/ZR from the onset. While many places did eventually change to snow briefly due to diabatic cooling eroding the initial warm layer aloft, it took nearly 2 hours here and the WAA won out faster than I had anticipated, flipping my hard earned snow quickly back to PL/RA/ZR after only about 30-40 minutes.

I tend to think that the warm layer aloft that was in place prior to the precipitation beginning was warmer than what the 12z models had expected, leading to the warmer p-types observed and longer changeover times to snow. 

I know that the models often underestimate the WAA aloft with these SWFEs, but usually the high res NAM does a better job than this inside of 12-24 hours to the event. 

In the absence of upper air data from weather balloon launches, how do we know what the actual temperatures aloft are for a given place and time at say the 850 mb level? Satellite data? If it is satellite data, how accurate is it? Just musing over why things transpired the way they did today...

 

[J Paul Gordon]

33F/32 DP; rain with some sleet mixed in.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

I posed this question over on Twitter and I'll pose it here too, but I wonder if the loss of weather balloon launches at both Albany, NY and Chatham, MA contributed to today's precipitation type bust? Albany's is due to the apparent Helium shortage and Chatham's due to beach erosion threatening the launch site. Without this valuable upper air data, I wonder if the warm layer aloft was not adequately sampled prior to data ingestion into the 12z model suite, leading to the models predicting colder p-types than what they should have been. After all, a model is only as good as the data that goes into it; hence the term I learned in NWP class back in the day: "garbage in, garbage out". 

Even today's 12z 3-km NAM (which is usually the warmest among the guidance in these scenarios) had many areas in N MA, S VT, and S NH snowing for a few hours before eventually flipping to sleet and freezing rain. This would've likely led to a few inches before the changeover, but instead it was PL/RA/ZR from the onset. While many places did eventually change to snow briefly due to diabatic cooling eroding the initial warm layer aloft, it took nearly 2 hours here and the WAA won out faster than I had anticipated, flipping my hard earned snow quickly back to PL/RA/ZR after only about 30-40 minutes.

I tend to think that the warm layer aloft that was in place prior to the precipitation beginning was warmer than what the 12z models had expected, leading to the warmer p-types observed and longer changeover times to snow. 

I know that the models often underestimate the WAA aloft with these SWFEs, but usually the high res NAM does a better job than this inside of 12-24 hours to the event. 

In the absence of upper air data from weather balloon launches, how do we know what the actual temperatures aloft are for a given place and time at say the 850 mb level? Satellite data? If it is satellite data, how accurate is it? Just musing over why things transpired the way they did today...

 

I Dunno, guidance was always borderline and when that happens, I’d always lean conservative. 
 

Besides  the better lift comes in tonight when thicknesses starts to fall. You may see many areas flip. 

[Torch Tiger]

Just saw a MASSIVE skunk run through my yard.  I tried to PSSSHH it away like a cat, it did run but how far? Is that a winter signal?

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

Just saw a MASSIVE skunk run through my yard.  I tried to PSSSHH it away like a cat, it did run but how far? Is that a winter signal?

Was it black with white stripes or white with black stripes.  
sorta like a wooly bear caterpillar. 
 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Just saw a MASSIVE skunk run through my yard.  I tried to PSSSHH it away like a cat, it did run but how far? Is that a winter signal?

Did you see it’s shadow?

[Torch Tiger]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Did you see it’s shadow?

It came out when the sleet stopped

[Torch Tiger]

this thing was bushy, I know the squirrel thiccness is a thing...hoenstly I've never seen a larger skunk. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Some flakes floating by in North Conway in the hot tub, Hoping we can at least scrape together 3” by morning 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

It came out when the sleet stopped

That means six more weeks of IPAs

[dendrite]

31.4F -SN...had a good initial burst.

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

That means six more weeks of IPAs

I've been craving those but man, can't do more than 2 IPA's a week now.  :/

[wxeyeNH]

30.7/26  Very light snow  1/4"  Heavier batch incoming..

Interesting post from wxmanmitch about the balloons.  The world is running out of helium.  If balloon launches become unavailable in the future I wonder what will happen?  So stupid that even now helium is wasted with party balloons etc.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Is Ray still smilin?

Yes.