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Genug Shoyn Mit warm and brown! Is Jan 19-20 a storm to shift the vibe?


mahk_webstah
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  On 1/17/2023 at 3:30 PM, ORH_wxman said:

You’re in a great spot. I really like the CON to PWM corridor in this one for a solid low end warning event. 

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I would be more gung ho if forcing weren't kind of going through the meat grinder as it squeezes east southeast. If we're losing the punch behind the WAA, rates will be lower, and accumulation in a marginal environment could struggle. If it was a wall of WAA like a typical SWFE I would be on board for more widespread warning. Right now I'm leaning low end as you say. 

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  On 1/17/2023 at 6:06 PM, OceanStWx said:

I would be more gung ho if forcing weren't kind of going through the meat grinder as it squeezes east southeast. If we're losing the punch behind the WAA, rates will be lower, and accumulation in a marginal environment could struggle. If it was a wall of WAA like a typical SWFE I would be on board for more widespread warning. Right now I'm leaning low end as you say. 

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Agree....at first look, I think a general 3-6" across s NH with maybe a few 6"+ in the higher terrain.

Its getting shredded and attenuating.

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  On 1/17/2023 at 6:31 PM, Great Snow 1717 said:

that rarely works out well for methuen...

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Correct ,  I can count the times a met has said looks “pretty good from Ray to xyz” and that has like a 25% success rate . Nobody has really said that specifically .. some have said NH/Ma border north looks decent but not sure if they mean inland w some elevation 

Sunapee looks to get smacked and considering they had maybe 1” in the woods Sunday ..they could use it .

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  On 1/17/2023 at 7:58 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Correct ,  I can count the times a met has said looks “pretty good from Ray to xyz” and that has like a 25% success rate . Nobody has really said that specifically .. some have said NH/Ma border north looks decent but not sure if they mean inland w some elevation 

Sunapee looks to get smacked and considering they had maybe 1” in the woods Sunday ..they could use it .

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The percentage is likely lower than that.....either the rain/snow line sets up south and/or east  of Methuen and/or N and NW of Methuen.  

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  On 1/17/2023 at 8:47 PM, tunafish said:

Looks like the bumped up the ranges for most from the map they had out earlier.

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Glad to see that has you in the yellow. Might suggest winter storm watches go up in the morning, if this continues and you are probably the eastern extent of that watch  Fingers crossed

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  On 1/17/2023 at 8:48 PM, mahk_webstah said:

Glad to see that has you in the yellow. Might suggest winter storm watches go up in the morning, if this continues and you are probably the eastern extent of that watch  Fingers crossed

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I'm in the 4-6" range still.  Skeptical on anything >4" just based on what Chris said at the top of this page, and because it looks like I'll be starting as mixed instead of straight snow.

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