Genug Shoyn Mit warm and brown! Is Jan 19-20 a storm to shift the vibe?

[512high]

47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most guidance has been shifting north with Friday stuff. It looks like mostly north of pike now....though you still may get a little. But I think best chances for 2-3" would be north.

Brian,

With the storm tonight/Friday for my area clue on density type?

[UnitedWx]

Moderate sleet in Simsbury 33 degrees

[RDRY]

Expecting mostly rain today here in the Berks, and rather heavy rain. This is fun.

[wx2fish]

40 minutes ago, 512high said:

Brian,

With the storm tonight/Friday for my area clue on density type?

Gonna be very wet and sloppy tonight, maybe even some sleet in there. Theyll be a break with drizzle late night/early morning. The midday stuff tomorrow will be a little drier. 

[UnitedWx]

3 minutes ago, RDRY said:

Expecting mostly rain today here in the Berks, and rather heavy rain. This is fun.

I hear that. Although if we're starting as sleet here In Simsbury, you should get some frozen. I'm told there's flakes falling at home in Westfield

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, RDRY said:

Expecting mostly rain today here in the Berks, and rather heavy rain. This is fun.

You might actually temporarily pound some moderate/heavy snow this afternoon before it flips and then you'll prob get some snow from the IVT stuff tomorrow. It will be interesting to see how much dynamic cooling helps bring the snow line south. There's almost two pulses of that....first initially here this afternoon....then the lift seems to weaken and the snow line lifts back to near the NH/VT border....but then round 2 of good lift is later this evening and it tries to sag south again in eastern MA.

[RDRY]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You might actually temporarily pound some moderate/heavy snow this afternoon before it flips and then you'll prob get some snow from the IVT stuff tomorrow. It will be interesting to see how much dynamic cooling helps bring the snow line south. There's almost two pulses of that....first initially here this afternoon....then the lift seems to weaken and the snow line lifts back to near the NH/VT border....but then round 2 of good lift is later this evening and it tries to sag south again in eastern MA.

Yeah, I just checked the radar, which actually looks decent for a period of snow early today. The second round though looks like rain. Probably a couple inches from the IVT tomorrow.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Where in the Berks are you 

[RDRY]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Where in the Berks are you 

Lenox

[Cold Miser]

40 minutes ago, RDRY said:

Expecting mostly rain today here in the Berks, and rather heavy rain. This is fun.

Enjoy the rain, it's the only rain ya got, ...except of course for the last rain, and the rain before that, and the next 2 rains. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, 512high said:

Brian,

With the storm tonight/Friday for my area clue on density type?

Will

[Sugarloaf1989]

Rain just started here in Enfield.  39F.

[Typhoon Tip]

'now cast' appearance on the entry into this thing ... the snow appears a little more aggressive on various p-type outfittted rad presentations compared to modeling.

just sayn'

not sure if an obs and amt thread is worth it for this - but ...

Looking around  ...  WPC's current sfc synopsis shows at 16:30 there's a weak cold front slicing through the region.  It's hard to detect this in sfc ob/wind profiles, and the DPs are also not very representative, but it is what it is. This situation being very sensy ...it 'might' matter?    Right now up and down rt Poop we are generally 37/28 ...

Rad with ptype suggests very quickly going from nothing to some sort of light to moderate fall rates, whether IP contaminated snow column or snow.  But that's evidence along a line roughly SYR-HFD

[512high]

16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Will

my bad thank you

[wx2fish]

56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You might actually temporarily pound some moderate/heavy snow this afternoon before it flips and then you'll prob get some snow from the IVT stuff tomorrow. It will be interesting to see how much dynamic cooling helps bring the snow line south. There's almost two pulses of that....first initially here this afternoon....then the lift seems to weaken and the snow line lifts back to near the NH/VT border....but then round 2 of good lift is later this evening and it tries to sag south again in eastern MA.

Hrrr has been trending a little better with that initial pulse. 16z run is trying to flip the pike region for a bit. 

[ma blizzard]

1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

Hrrr has been trending a little better with that initial pulse. 16z run is trying to flip the pike region for a bit. 

ORH siting at 37/25 currently, def some room to wetbulb close to freezing 

not expecting accumulation, but would be nice to at least get some flakes in the air 

[512high]

5 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Hrrr has been trending a little better with that initial pulse. 16z run is trying to flip the pike region for a bit. 

For some reason, I'm not feeling good about this event, ASH@ 39......... going for a total now of 2-3", yesterday I was thinking 5" total by Friday pm, just seems warmer of a storm?

[HoarfrostHubb]

13 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Hrrr has been trending a little better with that initial pulse. 16z run is trying to flip the pike region for a bit. 

HRRR has been unreliable this season IMHO.   Vascillates between big numbers and dustings

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

HRRR has been unreliable this season IMHO.   Vascillates between big numbers and dustings

God awful

[HIPPYVALLEY]

30 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Rain just started here in Enfield.  39F.

Wow, didn’t even start as snow, hey?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Wow, didn’t even start as snow, hey?

Rain here despite low dew. Not even sleet . So depressing facing another rainer and another and one after that… and losing what looked like snow tomorrow . Good luck up there and enjoy. Hopefully it’s snowy 

[wx2fish]

7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

HRRR has been unreliable this season IMHO.   Vascillates between big numbers and dustings

I like to use it for trends, but overall agree it can jump wildly. We use it alot for aviaiton purpose for cig/vis/TS. 

 

This is getting inside 4-5hr now though so hopefully it has a clue. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

I like to use it for trends, but overall agree it can jump wildly. We use it alot for aviaiton purpose for cig/vis/TS. 

 

This is getting inside 4-5hr now though so hopefully it has a clue. 

It figures it out about 12 hours after the event

[ma blizzard]

17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

HRRR has been unreliable this season IMHO.   Vascillates between big numbers and dustings

big cold bias IMO

[STILL N OF PIKE]

43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    Right now up and down rt Poop we are generally 37/28 ...

 

Rt. Poop , nice . We pray that area is snow 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Rt. Poop , nice . We pray that area is snow 

Starts as rain though

[RDRY]

Flipped over to fat dendies.

[Great Snow 1717]

46 degrees down by the water close to the Boston Harbor Hotel...

[wx2fish]

46 minutes ago, 512high said:

For some reason, I'm not feeling good about this event, ASH@ 39......... going for a total now of 2-3", yesterday I was thinking 5" total by Friday pm, just seems warmer of a storm?

Real tough call from ash to my area. Maybe something like 2-4" tonight and hope for another 1-2" midday tomorrow. Gradient may be very tight tonight. I'd lean lower end and be happy if it breaks the other way. 

[RDRY]

13 minutes ago, RDRY said:

Flipped over to fat dendies.

And just like that .. it's raining.