Genug Shoyn Mit warm and brown! Is Jan 19-20 a storm to shift the vibe?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

9 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Nam is definitely the warmest, little warm nose up around 750, and it pushes it up into the NH border region for a couple hours. Northern edge will probably fluctuate with lift, but something to watch on the 12z runs. 

The point and click forecasts touch on mixing just over the NH border 

WPC snow probs for 2” plus definitely highest for MHT north into NNE on first batch Thru Friday 12z

[wx2fish]

6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The point and click forecasts touch on mixing just over the NH border 

WPC snow probs for 2” plus definitely highest for MHT north into NNE on first batch Thru Friday 12z

Yeah hrrr kinda hints at it, but still colder than the nam. The euro soundings I have are too course to really see if it has anything in that layer. I think south of MHT will struggle initially too until we get decent lift. Elevation will help for atleast the first couple hours. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

6 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Yeah hrrr kinda hints at it, but still colder than the nam. The euro soundings I have are too course to really see if it has anything in that layer

I’ve just been sorta monitoring the odds on the WPC Site in addition to following models  . Right now Nashua is 60% for 2”> by 12z Friday as of the 430 am update  . And then looks to finish with 3-4” or so total by end of day 
 

Not sure if they even put that much into creating these but more watching their trends 

Concord NH to say Wildcat to west central maine has best odds (70-85%) for 6” for the duration of this event 

[tamarack]

9 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Yeah, long term climo is like 11:1 for our area, 13:1 in the mountains. 

Here it's just over 10:1 for 98-99 thru 21-22.  It was 10.5 going into 18-19 and that winter plus the next 2 have the lowest ratios of any of the 24.  20-21 was the nadir, at 6.5-to-1.  The season's biggest storm, 9.5" on Feb 2, was all snow at mid-upper 20s with 1.35" LE for a 7.2:1 ratio.  Lousy dendrites or something; places to the south (including NNJ and NYC) had better ratios.

[mreaves]

Here is BTV's map

[Typhoon Tip]

This story still has two chapters.    This evening/overnight.   Friday.

In chapter 1, the recent NAM pulled the rug out on anything very meaningful along the Rt 2 population ..although perhaps better out there toward Orange...  The model had shown very solid continuity for about 6 cycles actually, then 30 hours prior to go time, that changed.   Not sure continuity principles apply to higher res meso models that are exceptionally sensitive to almost imperceptible perturbation - you can't be sure they are picking up on something real, or eating contamination that's too subtle to notice but having a disproportionately large forcing on the solution.  Still I'd like to see one more cycle do this warmer solution.  

Otherwise, ..nothing's changed above and below that rough latitude.  This was never - in my mind - going to show along the Pike.   Meanwhile, these changes in the NAM, if they hold ...probably don't mean a helluva lot from roughly RUT-MHT-PSM.   The reason I'm citing the NAM so much is because this event had that over-arcing theme of suspicion that it might try to bump N in short term.  It is sort of annoyingly predictable, hut ...we'll see.

In chapter 2, there may even be a lull early Friday a.m., then we'll have to now-cast where destabilizing lapse rates working in tandem with mid level jet near-by blossom/fill-in rad during the morning.  Looks like light snow that isn't very proficiently accumulating, with perhaps a lucky stripe or two that pushes 2-3" ?  something like this...

[Cold Miser]

20 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Axl lied to me, cold November rain does last forever. Congrats Pike north! Hopefully the coastal plain will get more than an inch of snow at some point the remainder of the season. Gradient blows here…

Bristol is awful. I went to college there, and winters sucked. It was my first time living in R.I.. My nickname for the state is, Rain Island.  The "March Super Storm" of 93 was the one memorable event during my time there.  My daughter is there and has been there for the past 5 years and she has seen a couple good storms though.

[Cold Miser]

2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Zero chance I see 1-2.

[Typhoon Tip]

On a somewhat funner note ... beautiful display of 'Red sky at morning...' earlier.  

[Great Snow 1717]

47 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Box mentioned relatively low confidence in northern zones ..watching short term trends etc . Seems euro / gfs look good . Reggie / Ukie tickled N 

,,and for good reason

[HIPPYVALLEY]

15 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Zero chance I see 1-2.

Well, not with that attitude.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just a winter weather advisory in North Conway. Little surprised by that 

[Spanks45]

44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure much of anything pike south even tomorrow. We’ll have to watch for a surprise band or two, but seems like best stuff may be north. Especially with these north ticks. I guess we’ll see.

At one point I was a bit excited for some 1 inch slush on the backside of this storm. But alas, nada here.....enjoy it up north

[MarkO]

18 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Bristol is awful. I went to college there, and winters sucked. It was my first time living in R.I.. My nickname for the state is, Rain Island.  The "March Super Storm" of 93 was the one memorable event during my time there.  My daughter is there and has been there for the past 5 years and she has seen a couple good storms though.

LOL, my wife's family is on the other side of the Mt. Hope bridge (Portsmouth). There are many a times (this just another typical example), where I tell them "snow at the cabin, maybe a few inches here in Lowell, but rain in Rain Island". I'm heading north, they'e heading south. My daughter hates snow. Maybe part of the reason she's at URI.

They do very well with Benchmark storms. Lots of wind too. 

[Ginx snewx]

27 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Here is BTV's map

Going to get deep, deeper, deepest next 2 weeks.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Just a winter weather advisory in North Conway. Little surprised by that 

I think the new parameters up there are confidence in 8” or more.

[wx2fish]

12z hrrr looked maybe a hair colder on the front end, but a definite improvement with the stuff tomorrow, mostly north of the pike 

[jbenedet]

Pretty surprised by the lack of cold in western and CNE. Was wrong about that. 
 

The areas on the margin yesterday now tilted towards much less, right around the pike. 
 

The NAM performed well.

[Cold Miser]

14 minutes ago, MarkO said:

LOL, my wife's family is on the other side of the Mt. Hope bridge (Portsmouth). There are many a times (this just another typical example), where I tell them "snow at the cabin, maybe a few inches here in Lowell, but rain in Rain Island". I'm heading north, they'e heading south. My daughter hates snow. Maybe part of the reason she's at URI.

They do very well with Benchmark storms. Lots of wind too. 

It was either the winter of 93/94 or 94/95 after I moved to DC for a few years when I remember Newport and Bristol getting buried for a good number of weeks. I think 93/94. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

It was either the winter of 93/94 or 94/95 after I moved to DC for a few years when I remember Newport and Bristol getting buried for a good number of weeks. I think 93/94. 

It was definitely 93-94.

[jbenedet]

There’s also a needle thread option in areas in interior MA, that cold tuck well.

Looks like the first wave of precip is out ahead of the warmest push at 850. There is “sweet spot” potential where surface is 32ish. Would see mostly snow, as 850 doesn’t warm >0C until it’s moving out/ending. Lose about 1/4 precip to sleet/ice at end. There’s a lull, and then Friday morning, part 2 all levels support…

[jbenedet]

We’ve seen a lot of long duration events this season and this one also fits the bill with all the UL energy hanging back.

So the Friday story is real but will probably be more mood-influencing than of substance with rates/temps that don’t allow it to stack up. Steady-state, “it’s beautiful/nice to see” vs I added another 3”. Type snow. The latter confined to higher elevations.

[Damage In Tolland]

So is it just NAM, Euro , and GFS giving accumulating snows tomorrow south of 90?

[CoastalWx]

42 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Just a winter weather advisory in North Conway. Little surprised by that 

Probably because the 8” in 24 hours may not be met. 

[DJln491]

If there's thread for n00b questions please direct me.  My apologies.  But when there's multiple systems within a one week span, how to the models do in handling the subsequent systems?  Do you even bother to look at Monday before todays/tomorrow's system exits New England?  

edit: and I meant to post this in the Jan discussion thread so I'm really doing well here. lol

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Probably because the 8” in 24 hours may not be met. 

Hey, Folks want there WSW..........., Yes, They changed the warning criteria to offset zones that had the coastal plain and foothills in the same county, He still sees 8" or so.

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

If there's thread for n00b questions please direct me.  My apologies.  But when there's multiple systems within a one week span, how to the models do in handling the subsequent systems?  Do you even bother to look at Monday before todays/tomorrow's system exits New England?  

Each one will affect the other in a multitude of ways without getting into a deep discussion in this thread.

[Modfan2]

1 hour ago, Cold Miser said:

Zero chance I see 1-2.

Maybe of rain, lol!

[ORH_wxman]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So is it just NAM, Euro , and GFS giving accumulating snows tomorrow south of 90?

Most guidance has been shifting north with Friday stuff. It looks like mostly north of pike now....though you still may get a little. But I think best chances for 2-3" would be north.

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So is it just NAM, Euro , and GFS giving accumulating snows tomorrow south of 90?

 

45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most guidance has been shifting north with Friday stuff. It looks like mostly north of pike now....though you still may get a little. But I think best chances for 2-3" would be north.

The same ole' same ole' story for us southerners this season.