Genug Shoyn Mit warm and brown! Is Jan 19-20 a storm to shift the vibe?

[jbenedet]

20 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Probably be a decent gradient between the S Berks and N Berks. Didn’t look to see where he is though.  3-6” good bet. 

The surface has fully conceded to frozen throughout, once precip rolls in wet-bulb to 31-32. 850 still a hair-splitting battle, N berks vs S berks.

1-3" in the south, lolly 4" most Friday, N berks probably closer to 8" 

[jbenedet]

Are the ARW's full of shit? 

Never really looked at them until now... Useful or useless?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looking like a solid 4-8” North Conway. 10” on the mountain?

Lollis to 12” on the great mountain w a base of 650’

[CoastalWx]

Just now, jbenedet said:

Are the ARW's full of shit? 

Never really looked at them until now... Useful or useless?

I find them to be a little too cold at the surface. 

[TalcottWx]

They just posted wwa here. We're also in an unplanned 'alert' for bad weather at the station . I assume becauseof these cold ticks. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

They just posted wwa here. We're also in an unplanned 'alert' for bad weather at the station . I assume becauseof these cold ticks. 

It’s for zr in the hills to the north west of HFD

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I have a bad feeling other than 1-3 Friday anywhere from about Boston south and west is going to be rainer after rainer thru months end 

The never ending January thaw continues. 

[SJonesWX]

34 minutes ago, Chris12WX said:

So everyone doesn't start weening out over model snow forecasts, what's the standard SWFE again? For places that stay snow generally 4-5". The jackpot is 7-8".

in the parade of SWFEs in 07-08, i had >100" on the season, with only 2 double-digit storms (10" and 11"). Most were in the 5-8" range

[jbenedet]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I find them to be a little too cold at the surface. 

ARW2 seems within reason for what we might be able to eek out of the NW. The absolute low bar for overnight dews imo.

All alone, but what's interesting is the GFS surface dews are colder than the NAM's.

The NAM's TD's in Southern Ontario are wayyy too warm vs the rest of guidance which tells me it's too warm in our hood. By like +10F at any given location, in Southern Ontario. The NAM is going to correct colder at the surface into go time, me thinks.

 

[TalcottWx]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s for zr in the hills to the north west of HFD

The afd says a combination of snow and ice

[dryslot]

Winter storm watch hoisted

[OceanStWx]

33 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Really nice hit for RT 2 and north into SVT/SNH/SW ME.

SWFE Climo almost as the textbooks draw it up (hopefully that isn't too passive aggressive for some).

I actually like the purple area for some paste and 

Forecast soundings are hovering near wetbulb freezing and once we get over 4 inches power outages usually spike.

[tunafish]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I actually like the purple area for some paste and 

Forecast soundings are hovering near wetbulb freezing and once we get over 4 inches power outages usually spike.

Does it look like precip will start before midnight on Thursday?  WWA says late Thursday but not sure if that includes us on the coast.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I actually like the purple area for some paste and 

Forecast soundings are hovering near wetbulb freezing and once we get over 4 inches power outages usually spike.

Really good cross-hair sig on the NAM in that area too....that's both good for keeping it snow and also increases risk for power issues since you start getting hooked dendrites near freezing creating massive aggregates that stick to everything.

[tamarack]

25 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

in the parade of SWFEs in 07-08, i had >100" on the season, with only 2 double-digit storms (10" and 11"). Most were in the 5-8" range

Very similar here, with some latitudinal advantage - total was 142.3", tops here since 98-99.  Only dd's were 12.5" and 10.7", with 19 other events 3"-9.5".

[OceanStWx]

6 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Does it look like precip will start before midnight on Thursday?  WWA says late Thursday but not sure if that includes us on the coast.

I think so. These usually come in a little faster and I'm about 10 pm with this forecast.

[tamarack]

18 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Winter storm watch hoisted

Not for here, and the NAM map that PF posted shows the good stuff remaining to my south, leaving the Route 2 corridor with advisory snows, maybe 3-4".  All snow is good snow, but that amount would be right on the threshold for snowblow/no snoblow.  (Unless it's 6:1 paste, which would need to go.)

[CoastalWx]

Reggie a tad warmer. Makes sense as it was the coldest. 

[OceanStWx]

12 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Not for here, and the NAM map that PF posted shows the good stuff remaining to my south, leaving the Route 2 corridor with advisory snows, maybe 3-4".  All snow is good snow, but that amount would be right on the threshold for snowblow/no snoblow.  (Unless it's 6:1 paste, which would need to go.)

Well you also have new warning criteria this season (8"). So no watch because while you may push 6" I'm comfortably below the 8" threshold. 

[wxeyeNH]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The pond near here was like 5-6" thick ice in Dec 2013 and Dec 2017 with people skating all over it and playing hockey. It's open water right now (had some thin ice yesterday but its gone today).

Same thing up here at NH 5th largest lake.  Newfound Lake is wide open except a small area that is sheltered.  I assume Lake Winni is the same.  Records are not kept but I bet this is the latest date ever for such little ice.

[Lava Rock]

9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Well you also have new warning criteria this season (8"). So no watch because while you may push 6" I'm comfortably below the 8" threshold. 

I didn't know the threshold was increased. why?

[Lava Rock]

1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Same thing up here at NH 5th largest lake.  Newfound Lake is wide open except a small area that is sheltered.  I assume Lake Winni is the same.  Records are not kept but I bet this is the latest date ever for such little ice.

I doubt Sebago freezes this year. I think one other time several years ago it froze in Feb, but not the whole lake

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

I didn't know the threshold was increased. why?

Trying to align more with climo rather than CWA. Our mountains/foothills just get more snow, so we bumped criteria up to 8. Otherwise everybody stayed at 6. This was NWS wide, so you'll see things like the east slope of the Berks bumped to 7. 

[dryslot]

13 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

I doubt Sebago freezes this year. I think one other time several years ago it froze in Feb, but not the whole lake

Between the Songo River and Frye island out towards the middle of the two never freezes.

[RDRY]

18z GFS strikes again! 

[MuddyWx]

2 minutes ago, RDRY said:

18z GFS strikes again! 

Yea GFS warmer on the southern edge

[ORH_wxman]

That Friday stuff on GFS is getting pretty impressive. Looks a little colder than the 1/6 IVT which struggled to accumulate but a lot of that depends on snow growth too. 

[jbenedet]

It's gonna be a nowcast along that southern edge. We'll have a good idea which way it's gonna break depending on the morning dews in the region. Tough deal given the densely populated areas that fall along it--Boston, the suburbs ORH, etc. But it is what it is.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

That Friday stuff on GFS is getting pretty impressive. Looks a little colder than the 1/6 IVT which struggled to accumulate but a lot of that depends on snow growth too. 

Counting on that for only snow thru months end . For this area 

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That Friday stuff on GFS is getting pretty impressive. Looks a little colder than the 1/6 IVT which struggled to accumulate but a lot of that depends on snow growth too. 

Even the NAM has the little afternoon peak of snowfall. It's a saturated sounding with lift in the DGZ. Could be a nice little topper.

18z NAM squeezes out another cheap 3 inches for PWM.