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Genug Shoyn Mit warm and brown! Is Jan 19-20 a storm to shift the vibe?

mahk_webstah

By mahk_webstah,
in New England

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forkyfork
forkyfork

maybe it's time for most of you to find hobbies that don't involve snow

TauntonBlizzard2013
TauntonBlizzard2013

Skis loaded. Half day at work tomorrow and heading up 

mreaves
mreaves

You have a ski trip planned? I hadn’t heard. Have fun. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/18/2023 at 3:52 PM, jbenedet said:

For all the talk of poor antecedent airmass. …

Not really. 
 

Low level CAD begins begins tonight, on northwest winds, so we get a fresh injection of low 20 dews. 


 

 

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Even at SNH 850-925 has to wetbulb to get below 0C. It's a rather poor airmass all things considered, but works for those areas into ME and VT.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

GFS is trying to rip an isothermal paste bomb for ORH now...that shortwave is getting compressed a bit on the 12z runs. That shortwave north of CAR is stronger. Again, not totally buying it down to the pike, but that is a good sign for the Rt 2 crowd....gives them a little more wiggle room for any north ticks that may try to happen in the final 24h.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/18/2023 at 3:56 PM, CoastalWx said:

Even at SNH 850-925 has to wetbulb to get below 0C. It's a rather poor airmass all things considered, but works for those areas into ME and VT.

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Yeah, it's looking like we'll get max wetbulbs down around -2C through NH during the day Thursday. I'm less worried about too much rain in southern NH, more worried about the airmass being too marginal to really stack up the snow if things are partially or close to melting.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/18/2023 at 4:03 PM, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is trying to rip an isothermal paste bomb for ORH now...that shortwave is getting compressed a bit on the 12z runs. That shortwave north of CAR is stronger. Again, not totally buying it down to the pike, but that is a good sign for the Rt 2 crowd....gives them a little more wiggle room for any north ticks that may try to happen in the final 24h.

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Sounding is a blue bomb there lol. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 1/18/2023 at 4:03 PM, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is trying to rip an isothermal paste bomb for ORH now...that shortwave is getting compressed a bit on the 12z runs. That shortwave north of CAR is stronger. Again, not totally buying it down to the pike, but that is a good sign for the Rt 2 crowd....gives them a little more wiggle room for any north ticks that may try to happen in the final 24h.

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Sounds like another MLK day storm bloodbath to me 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/18/2023 at 4:03 PM, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is trying to rip an isothermal paste bomb for ORH now...that shortwave is getting compressed a bit on the 12z runs. That shortwave north of CAR is stronger. Again, not totally buying it down to the pike, but that is a good sign for the Rt 2 crowd....gives them a little more wiggle room for any north ticks that may try to happen in the final 24h.

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The NAM even gets max wetbulbs down to 0 to Long Island Sound Thursday. The problem is they rocket up to +1/+2 as the precip starts. Wetbulb 0 hangs out right around Route 2. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
  On 1/18/2023 at 4:05 PM, jbenedet said:

I think this is a nowcast on those dewpoints out ORH to NW CT. 

Wake up to find TD obs 5 degrees colder than progged. Will see. If the 850 low wants to hang on like the NAM, it won't matter in terms of snow accums, just more frozen. 

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As far as for interior SNE:

I don't have a problem with "correction vectoring" the BL colder, "IF" we can verify even a modest +PP CNE    ... mentioned that as an 'in principle' concept two days ago.  

And those can be almost silent, too.  It really doesn't take much ... and once the ageostrophy starts up, it can be quite weak but if it feeds into a marginal scenario that's begging for a reason to flop either + or - ... that sensitivity can decide.   Looking for almost nondescript boundaries or momentum to suggest -

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 1/18/2023 at 3:28 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah it's been remarkably consistent with that axis... 

I looked at the old FOUS grid. It maintains essentially an isothermic 0C sounding through 800 mb over Logan, with .53" QPF ... hmm..  The numbers were 0C, 0C, +1C,  at 980, 900, and 800 mb respectively.

Not sure that much QPF loaded through a column like that would necessarily be rain... Comparing those numbers to the synoptic tapestry, it's near-by.  Probably that's +2, +2, +4 just south of Logan out along the Pike  - first batch...    

IF IF IF that layout verifies, we probably end up with 6" along Rt 2, ranging to almost nothing along the Pike. 

That may chap some winter enthusiast asses but ...I don't make the rules of these games.

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I'd live-

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 1/18/2023 at 4:03 PM, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is trying to rip an isothermal paste bomb for ORH now...that shortwave is getting compressed a bit on the 12z runs. That shortwave north of CAR is stronger. Again, not totally buying it down to the pike, but that is a good sign for the Rt 2 crowd....gives them a little more wiggle room for any north ticks that may try to happen in the final 24h.

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I may finally catch a break.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 1/18/2023 at 4:14 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I may finally catch a break.

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These are def the types of runs you want to see so far at 12z to give yourself just a little big of wiggle room. Of course, the Euro could piss in your cheerios which we've seen too much of this year. But I'm starting to feel a bit more optimistic for the NH border region than I did yesterday.

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