Genug Shoyn Mit warm and brown! Is Jan 19-20 a storm to shift the vibe?

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/17/2023 at 8:47 PM, tunafish said:

Looks like the bumped up the ranges for most from the map they had out earlier.

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That's a little bit of an artifact of how we do QPF (and thus snow amount). We only have 72 hours of QPF, so last night's forecast would've cut off part of the event. Now with it included today it looks like we increased amounts, but it's just adding the end of the event. 

[tamarack]

On the 4-6/3-4 boundary  here.  Seems like we're always on one of those boundaries according to the TV news maps.

[tunafish]

  On 1/17/2023 at 9:05 PM, OceanStWx said:

That's a little bit of an artifact of how we do QPF (and thus snow amount). We only have 72 hours of QPF, so last night's forecast would've cut off part of the event. Now with it included today it looks like we increased amounts, but it's just adding the end of the event. 

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Did not know that.  Thanks.

[WxWatcher007]

Tenuous but a little better on the NAM even down here.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/17/2023 at 9:35 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Tenuous but a little better on the NAM even down here.

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Yup . It’s happening 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/17/2023 at 9:00 PM, jbenedet said:

I'm going with a jackpot in the Berks on this one. North Adams area.

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Well, the higher elevations there sure but N Adams itself is an absolute snow hole.  Shadowed in every direction.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/17/2023 at 9:35 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Tenuous but a little better on the NAM even down here.

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  On 1/17/2023 at 9:40 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup . It’s happening 

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Beware the bump north 48 hours 

[WxWatcher007]

  On 1/17/2023 at 9:40 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup . It’s happening 

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  On 1/17/2023 at 9:47 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

 

Beware the bump north 48 hours 

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This is another one where I don’t have real expectations here…but next week needs to see significant numbers put up on the board. No excuses. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4-8 good call for North Conway 

[dryslot]

  On 1/17/2023 at 9:55 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

4-8 good call for North Conway 

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This is why you don't underestimate ski areas in NNE in Jan.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/17/2023 at 9:57 PM, dryslot said:

This is why you don't underestimate ski areas in NNE in Jan.

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I’m happy. 4-8” with light snow falling most of the day Friday will be a nice treat 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/17/2023 at 9:42 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Well, the higher elevations there sure but N Adams itself is an absolute snow hole.  Shadowed in every direction.

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Florida/Savoy to Rowe FTW

[CoastalWx]

North Adams? Wine? 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/17/2023 at 10:36 PM, CoastalWx said:

North Adams? Wine? 

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Place downslopes worse than IJD to TAN lol

[Typhoon Tip]

Wondering if Friday mid day may be under sold by a little ( not a lot, a little -)

That starting to look like it'll be assisted by unstable lapse rates.  I could see that 'burst' with a stripe or two inside a light to moderate rad shield...  Little critter does a bit better.  From 06z to 18z Friday, the 700 mb T between ALB and Logan ( on average ) appears to tank by 9 pts celsius...that's pretty impressive, while there is still a 90 kt 500 mb jet max ripping by 2 deg lat S. That's crossing up some frontogenic sig with lapse rates... 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/17/2023 at 10:45 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Wondering if Friday mid day may be under sold by a little ( not a lot, a little -)

That starting to look like it'll be assisted by unstable lapse rates.  I could see that 'burst' with a stripe or two inside a light to moderate rad shield...  Little critter does a bit better.  From 06z to 18z Friday, the 700 mb T between ALB and Logan ( on average ) appears to tank by 9 pts celsius...that's pretty impressive, while there is still a 90 kt 500 mb jet max ripping by 2 deg lat S. That's crossing up some frontogenic sig with lapse rates... 

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It’s a nice solid look. ULL out south of LI linked up with Norlun. Snowy day becoming more likely most of SNE

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/17/2023 at 10:48 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s a nice solid look. ULL out south of LI linked up with Norlun. Snowy day becoming more likely most of SNE

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it's a system that's 2 chapters told, really... The Thursday contention is an isentropic lift thing that's in a marginal atmosphere that "might" host some near ice issue along Rt 2 ... snow in CNE and points N looks like a good bet. ... I mean this could certainly change over the next 2 days.

That sort of wanes off by 12z Friday...and then we re-bloom the QPF as a crashing column with some semblance of instability working with frotogen...etc etc...

[dryslot]

18z Euro, Bumped qpf north a couple tics from 12z.

12z

18z

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/17/2023 at 10:48 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s a nice solid look. ULL out south of LI linked up with Norlun. Snowy day becoming more likely most of SNE

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Only issue is the ULL goes thru central New England to southern Canada , but we can call that south of Long Island if we are confused 

Looks like the best lift is on the south side of it Thou 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/18/2023 at 12:20 AM, dryslot said:

18z Euro, Bumped qpf north a couple tics from 12z.

12z

18z

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Pretty beefy, approaching 1” qpf in a lot of portions of NNE

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/18/2023 at 12:21 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Only issue is the ULL goes thru central New England to southern Canada , but we can call that south of Long Island if we are confused 

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Yeah the ULL center goes north of us but the vortmax goes just south of us or almost over us so that’s where we could get some lift from. At the same time that is happening, the ULL is getting stretched out and opened up so that promotes an IVT where that is occurring….usually lining up with where the energy is going. So you see an IVT extending back into SNE. A few of the northern runs have it more in CNE or northern SNE. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/18/2023 at 12:25 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the ULL center goes north of us but the vortmax goes just south of us or almost over us so that’s where we could get some lift from. At the same time that is happening, the ULL is getting stretched out and opened up so that promotes and IVT where that is occurring….usually lining up with where the energy is going. So you see an IVT extending back into SNE. A few of the northern runs have it more in CNE or northern SNE. 

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Ya I see the “lift” at the upper levels on the south side of the vort. Let’s see if that stays around 

[powderfreak]

  On 1/18/2023 at 12:21 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Pretty beefy, approaching 1” qpf in a lot of portions of NNE

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Yeah that was a solid tick wetter.  Large area of 0.50-0.75”< QPF.

I’d sign on the dotted line for a half inch QPF as snow and move into the next one, ha.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/18/2023 at 12:21 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Pretty beefy, approaching 1” qpf in a lot of portions of NNE

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Nice skiing

[powderfreak]

  On 1/18/2023 at 12:31 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nice skiing

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Still can’t believe his luck. NNE thanks him for his worrying, we finally benefit from the earlier angst.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/18/2023 at 12:31 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nice skiing

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Would be huge for the ski areas if they can keep 1/23 snow too. That would be a really nice base repair from those two systems. Get skiing like it’s supposed to be. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/18/2023 at 12:21 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Only issue is the ULL goes thru central New England to southern Canada , but we can call that south of Long Island if we are confused 

Looks like the best lift is on the south side of it Thou 

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It’s a south look. Ray only oooking at snow Maps and outputs on his arrow maps , hence the confusion 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/18/2023 at 12:32 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Would be huge for the ski areas if they can keep 1/23 snow too. That would be a really nice base repair from those two systems. Get skiing like it’s supposed to be. 

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Ya that system seems to have the wide goal posts that you’ve alluded to . If that’s cuts thru NY then it will be a sad day filled with One reindeer sweater wearing weenie at Sprucepeak. We have never had a powder freak melt that I can recall .

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/18/2023 at 12:32 AM, powderfreak said:

Still can’t believe his luck. NNE thanks him for his worrying, we finally benefit from the earlier angst.

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  On 1/18/2023 at 12:31 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nice skiing

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I mean, I think it’s less luck and more this is their climo and it’s been historically bad to this point, so it almost had to turn for the better at some point.

Either way, should be a wintry few days. Some models have snow showers lingering into Saturday 

[weathafella]

This one seems locked.  Route 2 north plowable snow.  Pike region 1-2.  C-2 south.    We’re pulling systems off every 2-3 days now.

re:   Thread title:  Yiddish is a jargon of something like 7 languages. Hebrew and German are prominent and Yiddish speakers read Hebrew letters despite being a totally different language.   Ironically, one of the first Yiddish words I learned was when my grandmother looked out of the window and exclaimed SCHNEE!