2023 Tropical Tracking Thread

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

A little tropical history 

 

And stephens City recorded partly cloudy skies.

[Its a Breeze]

53 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Nada for I-95?

Needs to move a tick or two west.

And temps need to drop 50 degrees or so.

[Eskimo Joe]

51 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said:

Needs to move a tick or two west.

And temps need to drop 50 degrees or so.

3 to 5 inches of rain would be nice 

[Kevin Reilly]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

3 to 5 inches of rain would be nice 

I could see a scenario where Hurricane Franklin passes well offshore 175-400 miles offshore and holds up the cold front along the east coast to allow periods of heavy rain with a wave of low pressure running up along it.  

Euro and Canadian camps bring a tropical system up the eastern Gulf of Mexico and we will have to wait and see what happens with that.  

[WxWatcher007]

 

[WxWatcher007]

Lemon (0/20) put on the western Caribbean by the NHC. Not a surprise, but there remains substantial inconsistency across guidance on the feature. Not often we get a CAG in August, but when they happen, big things can pop. The key to what happens in the next few days is getting vorticity to stay off the Yucatan, but even then with the trough expected to lift whatever's there north it may only delay some level of development. 

[WxUSAF]

12z GGEM back with the eastern gulf homebrew that comes close enough to keep an eye on. Marginal PRE signal as well.

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

12z GGEM back with the eastern gulf homebrew that comes close enough to keep an eye on. Marginal PRE signal as well.

Not that far out there, either. Of course, homebrew can spin up at a moment's notice, but we'd "want" to start seeing this pop up on other guidance relatively soon.

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

Not that far out there, either. Of course, homebrew can spin up at a moment's notice, but we'd "want" to start seeing this pop up on other guidance relatively soon.

Euro has it also. Similar to GGEM through FL landfall, but euro gets shoved farther OTS with the incoming gorgeous early fall HP. Still probably cat 2/3 near our latitude though.

[WxWatcher007]

Let's take a closer look at our latest area of interest that's expected to move into the western Caribbean and Gulf. 

The NHC now believes that TC genesis is more likely than not, and with increasing run to run consistency from some operational guidance and ensembles, a forecast for TC genesis is coming into view. 

3. Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure centered over Central America is 
forecast to move into northwestern Caribbean Sea by this weekend. 
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter into 
early next week, and a tropical depression could form while it moves 
slowly northward, entering the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

I've actually been looking at this region and time period for a little over a week now, as a complicated interaction between an EPAC monsoon trough and broader Central American Gyre (CAG) increased the odds that something could form in the EPAC or Atlantic basin. Normally, we see the CAG a few times a season, usually at the beginning or end of the season, but this time we have the setup during the building climatological peak of the season. 

Much like the monsoon trough in the eastern MDR last week, the EPAC monsoon trough (ribbon of vorticity) is expected to break apart into distinct areas of vorticity, with one lifting north into the western Caribbean and eventually the eastern Gulf under the influence of an upper level trough. 

This is where the rubber meets the road. We have a clear area of strong vorticity in Central America and that is gradually moving north. 

For the last week, the guidance had virtually no run to run consistency over whether a tangible feature would move into the Atlantic basin, let alone develop. Usually, the GFS goes wild with CAG TC formation, but has been silent on development.

Now, virtually all major guidance has TC genesis taking shape while the GFS, seemingly behind, does put a disorganized area of vorticity into the Gulf a few days from now. At least today, while the GFS and Euro diverge on development, they are closer than it would appear looking at the general setup.

Let's look at the next seven days. The GFS, with more shear and less concentrated vorticity making it to the western Caribbean in a few days takes much longer for a surface feature to develop.

The Euro on the other hand, has started to show run to run consistency with lower shear and a more concentrated area of vorticity, leading to development in the eastern Gulf even if the area of vorticity spends time over the Yucatan. 

Even with the upper low nearby, it is expected to shift west, reducing its influence. In addition, over the region we have an upper-level anticyclone allowing for a pocket of low shear and convective activity. That feature is not expected to go anywhere. 

Unlike other eastern MDR systems, dry air and subsidence has not been as much of an issue further west, and the influence of the SAL had dramatically diminished, as I posted about a few days ago. 

Alright, so the Gulf is a furnace so that settles it, right? Hurricane coming? 

I think it's important to look at what could inhibit development, and I think it's land interaction. It's quite possible that if there is a weaker area of vorticity like the GFS predicts and it lingers over the Yucatan or Central America until a northeast trough pulls it north, there may not be enough time for it to organize, much like it was for Harold this week in the Gulf. 

That said, I think that's an increasingly low likelihood, so let's talk briefly about what happens after potential development. 

On the 12z Euro you see the trough that is going to kick TS Franklin OTS or toward Atlantic Canada also allows for whatever develops in the Gulf to lift N/NE. On the Euro, the system hugs the coast before swinging out to sea off the Carolina coast. Other guidance has a different trough orientation/timing that allows for it to come further up the coast. What happens is up in the air, but this is looking like something to watch in the Gulf and along the SE coast. 

We're going to know pretty quickly which guidance is more correct, as the vorticity lifts north. Watch out for where it lands and how consolidated it is in the next 48-72 hours.

I've liked the last week of August for close to home activity for a while now and it looks like that's coming to fruition. How strong the activity is and how much of the coast is impacted remains to be seen. 

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro has it also. Similar to GGEM through FL landfall, but euro gets shoved farther OTS with the incoming gorgeous early fall HP. Still probably cat 2/3 near our latitude though.

Ah...I hadn't checked the Euro before I posted.

The GFS has an area of unsettled weather in the southern Gulf around that time, so maybe there's something to it.

Icon has similar...  

[WxWatcher007]

For posterity when this slides harmlessly OTS after Florida  

[WxWatcher007]

First time the GFS has a quicker consolidation of vorticity in the Gulf. Still delayed development until it’s right on the FL coast, then basically OTS. 

[WxWatcher007]

Well that GFS run is different  

[PrinceFrederickWx]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Well that GFS run is different  

Letter I storm? Check.

My upcoming trip to the Outer Banks? Check.

We're good to go. 

[yoda]

18z GFS still gets some of 93L moisture into the region but it disappates

[WxWatcher007]

93L looking good this morning

[WxWatcher007]

Advisories likely at 5pm as the organizational trend for 93L continues. Big split on the guidance on the eventual track after Florida and honestly, idk where it's going to go given the massive steering pattern shifting we've been seeing on guidance for the northeast trough that was supposed to carry Franklin away. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Kind of surprised NHC didn't designste this as a PTC at 11am.

[midatlanticweather]

Edit: Track reminded me of Michael. Sorry! This is what it looked like. 

 

[Kevin Reilly]

39 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

 

 

That's Hurricane Michael did you mean to post the latest details of Depression #10?  However good point of reference as the track may be almost exact we shall see definitely early on perfect.

[Eskimo Joe]

Latest SHIPS guidance gets TD10 to Cat 1 in 48 hours.

[midatlanticweather]

52 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

That's Hurricane Michael did you mean to post the latest details of Depression #10?  However good point of reference as the track may be almost exact we shall see definitely early on perfect.

Yep.. I screwed up then reposted and screwed up again. Thx. 

[gymengineer]

45 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Yep.. I screwed up then reposted and screwed up again. Thx. 

Or, you could have passed it off that you were trying to convey how the earlier intensity forecasts were way underdone for Michael’s landfall….which your map does show. 

[yoda]

00z CMC drops 2-4 inches from around a CHO to DCA and SEward line into S MD and the Eastern Shore with TD 10 on Friday 

00z GFS says that the region gets no rain from TD 10

[Eskimo Joe]

6 hours ago, yoda said:

00z CMC drops 2-4 inches from around a CHO to DCA and SEward line into S MD and the Eastern Shore with TD 10 on Friday 

00z GFS says that the region gets no rain from TD 10

We aint getting squat from TD10. Stephen's City has expanded east to the Bay.

[Weather Will]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We aint getting squat from TD10. Stephen's City has expanded east to the Bay.

WB 6Z EURO, tropical cyclone will track well SE of DMV.  Flow is way too progressive.

[WxWatcher007]

WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 13 (5)
Hurricanes: 6 (1)
Major Hurricanes: 3 (0)

Emily, Franklin (H), Gert, Harold, Idalia

[mattie g]

Folks still saying they know better than the NHC's calls for an active remainder of the season?

[WxWatcher007]

59 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Folks still saying they know better than the NHC's calls for an active remainder of the season?

There were some openly wondering whether we'd get through August with no named storms  

In all seriousness though, hindsight is 20/20, and September still needs to produce because I do think things ramp down quickly after September 20.