jacindc Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 Looking forward to getting some tropical remnants--in Wyoming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Alright folks, it's just about that time to ring the bell. After a dead period late July through most of August, right on cue the basin is alive. With a caveat. Let's start here. Dude! Amazing post… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: Dude! Amazing post… If I had more time I could have went deeper and talked MJO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 Looks like a busy day. Will do a quick look around the basin but I think 98L and 90L should become TCs today. Both may honestly be there already. Recon expected to sample 90L later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 We have Emily in the eastern MDR Tropical Storm Emily Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072023 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 20 2023 The large area of low pressure we have been monitoring over the last several days to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands has finally developed a well-defined circulation per recently received satellite wind data. In addition, the scatterometer wind data also suggest the system has developed a robust wind field on its northern semicircle, with ASCAT-B/C both showing believable wind retrievals in the 40-45 kt range. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Emily this morning with maximum sustained winds of 45 kt, which is in good agreement with the latest 1200 UTC TAFB Dvorak fix. The estimated motion of the tropical storm is slowly off to the west-northwest, at 300/9 kt. Over the next several days, Emily should maintain a general west-northwestward motion as it remains steered by a low-level ridge centered to its north. A gradual turn to the north is anticipated after Emily becomes a remnant low, rounding the southern periphery of this subtropical ridge. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the initial track forecast lies in between the simple and corrected consensus aids. Emily might already be near its peak intensity, as vertical wind shear is expected to substantially increase over the cyclone in the next 24-36 hours as it remains embedded in a fairly dry mid-level environment. While it is possible a bit more intensification occurs today, it seems more likely the system will soon succumb to the increasingly hostile environment over the next several days. Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest Emily will cease to produce organized convection in about 48 hours, and the official intensity forecast shows it becoming a post-tropical remnant low at that time. There is some chance the environment becomes more favorable again in 4-5 days, but a regeneration scenario will not be shown in the official forecast for now. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 19.5N 38.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 20.3N 39.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 20.9N 41.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 21.5N 43.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 22.5N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0000Z 23.6N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z 25.1N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1200Z 29.8N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1200Z 36.0N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 Let's do a quick deep dive on two of the five areas I highlighted yesterday--the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico and Invest 90L. Gulf Disturbance I tagged yesterday's disturbance with 60% odds of eventual development when it was moving through the Bahamas and Florida, and now that it has reached the eastern Gulf I am even more bullish given today's satellite appearance. To be clear: this one needs some work and there's not a lot of time to do it. That said, the quick convective burst and indications that it's trying to form into a low makes it worth an invest tag to me. The environment overall looks favorable. There is very little shear present and that should remain the case as this moves west. Once again, we obviously know that the SSTs are not an issue, with literally some of the warmest water on Earth in the Gulf and a deep reservoir of OHC. Moisture looks solid not great, but given where the vorticity is trying to tighten and the convective bursts we're seeing, I don't think drier continental air is a limiting factor yet. We'll see. I think time is the greatest limiting factor here, but kind of like Hanna a few years ago, if this can get a good organizational burst today/tonight that could bode well for another named storm to develop as this enters the western Gulf and the TX/Mexico border early Tuesday. Again, not a lot of time, and nothing can happen until there's a legitimate low, which we do not have yet. Invest 90L This one is worth watching IMO. I think it is a contender to be the strongest system of the season thus far in the long range. Recon is expected to sample this later today and I believe they will find a tropical storm. In the visible you can clearly see a low level circulation, but there are some significant issues keeping this from taking off. There is very evident northerly shear that is pushing the convective burst that should be over the center further south. That's how we can see that there is a clear LLC In addition to the shear, there is dry air to the north that is causing issues as well. I don't expect dry air to be as big an issue long term, but for now the shear/dry air combo is keeping this one in check. This would be taking off IMO without the combination, because the convective bursts that we have seen have been persistent and intense--really allowing this to be as organized (and it's not terribly organized) as it is now. I'm intrigued by the long range because it looks like the environment after a potential landfall near DR/Haiti will be conducive for additional development. In fact, both the GFS and Euro operational guidance has this becoming a strong system in the open Atlantic. I still think we need to wait for this to cross the Antilles back into the Atlantic before fully understanding the long term future of 90L, but overall, troughing is going to lift this north into the Atlantic. How far west this gets before that turn seems important, and certainly what other impulses in the Atlantic exist ahead of 90L, because both the Euro and GFS have a ridge over the CONUS and have trended toward a subtropical ridge building in to drive what is likely a named storm by then northward. Throw in any kind of trough in there to either cause a weakness between the ridges to go OTS, or in the case of a cutoff in the east change steering toward land, and we have a very complex forecast. Given the complexity of the forecast long range, and the shift west we've seen in ensemble guidance as 90L continues to develop, this one is certainly worth a close eye in Bermuda, Atlantic Canada, and to a lesser extent the US east coast. A lot of tracking to do this week. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 Should have Franklin at 5pm with Invest 90L. Recon finding TS winds and I think enough of a closed circulation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Should have Franklin at 5pm with Invest 90L. Recon finding TS winds and I think enough of a closed circulation. Yeap. 000 WTNT33 KNHC 202053 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023 500 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023 ...TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORMS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.. ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 67.1W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF ISLA SAONA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES ..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 Franklin with an absolutely epic tower going up right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 49 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Franklin with an absolutely epic tower going up right now. we were gonna pay for the bath water in the Caribbean and Gulf at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: we were gonna pay for the bath water in the Caribbean and Gulf at some point Gotta watch what happens with that potential CAG in the Gulf/W. Caribbean at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 A day late, but the peak forecast is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 Looks like Gert is one of those 'screw it, just name it' storms . Don't think it actually reached TS strength but *shugs* Should disappear in an advisory or two. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 WxWatcher007 2023 Atlantic Peak Season Forecast Finally, I have the time to share my annual thoughts on the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. This is my fifth annual forecast and the lead up to today has seen very significant uncertainty on the tenor of the season. The season so far has actually been normal in number of storms and ACE to date, which means active for a Nino. As I write, we suddenly have a TC outbreak in the Atlantic. The switch is definitely flipping in the basin. Each year on August 20, the late Dr. William Gray and his team would ring a bell, symbolizing the start of peak season. This year, we have a historically warm basin battling a Nino that is gradually increasing in influence. What does the August 20 - October 20 period hold? Here's my forecast. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 Hurricanes: 6 Major Hurricanes: 3 Emily, Franklin, and Gert became named storms yesterday. Had I posted on the 20th, I would have forecast Emily and Franklin to develop, but not Gert. As a result, my verification will include that. The forecast also predicts PTC 9 and Invest 92L to become NS. That's already pretty active. With the current outbreak, I think the risk of a below normal season has diminished. I expect this active window to be confined to the next 4 weeks, with a sharp drop off in activity by September 20. That doesn't mean we can't/won't have NS/H/MH during the late period, but I think at that point, the evolving MJO and Nino will start closing things down. Over the past four seasons, I've done well with my forecasts. I view being within +/- 1 as a success, with points off the greater the error. I earned a B+ in 2019, A- in 2020, a disappointing C in 2021, and a rebounding B- in 2022. As a reminder, the historical average is 14/7/3. With this peak season forecast I am now forecasting an overall 18/7/3 with more NS than normal, a normal hurricane number, and normal MH number due to decreasing shear during the peak and the exceptionally warm basin even in the central Atlantic. I see ACE around normal. 1. ENSO After a three year Nina, we're solidly in an El Nino regime. Of course, every ENSO event is different, and intensity/location matters a lot. Given what I project (and I will admit I am not as good with the intensity/location stuff) and what I've seen so far, the fundamental atmospheric response in the Atlantic that allows for anomalously high shear through the basin has not yet occurred, despite the shear in the basin currently. During the peak guidance actually shows a decrease in shear, but the influence of the Nino should eventually increase, bringing a wind down of activity around the basin (particularly the Caribbean) approximately four weeks from now. 2. West African Monsoon The WAM has shown mixed signals so far this season, but now that we're entering the peak it is ramping up. We've seen numerous strong African Easterly Waves (AEWs) that have rolled off Africa, and if the GFS Ensembles are to be believed, it should continue through at least early September. With CV season coming, this is essential to the forecast, even if the MDR remains somewhat hostile with subsidence because it provides a launching point for strong waves to survive the trek into the western Atlantic where there may be more favorable conditions depending on shear. 3. Wind Shear For the most part, shear has been the opposite of what you'd expect for a Nino. Recently it has gotten much worse, but that hasn't stopped development across the basin. It has, however, limited intensity potential, which is part of the reason why I am not interested in going above normal on H or MH numbers. I do think we're going to continue having issues with TUTTs, but I don't anticipate the incredibly consistent wave breaking we saw last year that really capped potential in the basin. There is fairly high confidence in this, given the agreement by the ensembles and the seasonal trend thus far. Eventually I think the Nino will take over, but not until the damage has been done. 4. SST Anomalies/OHC If we didn't have the extraordinary SST anomalies and OHC dominating the basin, this would undoubtably be a BN season. This has really allowed for the early MDR NS, marginal activity in the basin in the face of shear/dry air, and for Don to become our first hurricane in July. It is historic warmth, and while SSTs are not the piece that drives a season, they are an essential piece. 5. SAL & Stability The check on the season so far hasn't been shear, it has been SAL and stability. After being historically low earlier in the season, SAL came back with a vengeance in July and August, stabilizing much of the basin and completely closing down even cloud development in the MDR. In fact, vertical instability has been well below climo all year in the tropical Atlantic. Times are changing though. SAL is on the decline as we reach the peak of the season, as is usually the case. The sacrificial waves, which all became named storms along the monsoon trough, has dramatically decreased SAL and moistened the environment around the basin, further increasing confidence in an active month ahead. I can't embed the gif, but the link is below. https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html 5. CCKW/MJO Finally, although we can't see very far, we do also have another factor making an active month more likely. It looks like we are getting favorable passage of a CCKW and the MJO looks to be on the side of Atlantic activity for the next few weeks. This should continue to promote vigorous waves. Not all will develop, but it should keep moistening the MDR and allow for waves to get further west. Overall I didn't want to go big, because we still don't know how much shear and stability will truly subside in the coming weeks. Honestly, before this week I was leaning BN overall. With the current state of the Atlantic however and a more favorable period coming aside from the annual start of the climatological peak, I do believe we see an active period that gets us to near normal before a decline after September 20 and an abrupt end by October 20. I do think that we see a lot of named storms, but because I am hedging a little more conservative I think we have fewer hurricane chances of those NS. That said, the ones that do become hurricanes will have a chance to become majors, leaving me to predict that 3 of the 6 hurricanes I project developing become majors. Final Note--Landfall Odds The past three years have seen high end storms landfall in the US, and I don't think that changes this year. With higher activity comes a greater statistical chance of a US landfall, and I do believe we have a fourth consecutive year with a major hurricane landfall in the continental United States. We'll see what happens. Happy tracking. 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 We have Harold as of 2am EST WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (4) Hurricanes: 6 (0) Major Hurricanes: 3 (0) Edit: it’s 4 TCs since Aug 20—Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 22 hours ago, Its a Breeze said: Looks like Gert is one of those 'screw it, just name it' storms . Don't think it actually reached TS strength but *shugs* Should disappear in an advisory or two. Yeah, seems like they name everything in recent years. I wonder why............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 18 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Yeah, seems like they name everything in recent years. I wonder why............ Do you really wonder why? Careful consideration of our modern day society will provide the answer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 Harold looking pretty robust as landfall approaches 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 Quickly building an eyewall just offshore. Runway to take off is almost gone, though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 Look at that pressure fall. These quick spin ups are always fascinating. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 22, 2023 Author Share Posted August 22, 2023 18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Look at that pressure fall. These quick spin ups are always fascinating. Imagine if it had more time over water, we are going to pay for all of those underwater volcanos building those ssts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 A little tropical history 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 26 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: A little tropical history Anyone know of a website where you can get high quality copies of these old hand-drawn pressure and temp maps? Really want to frame one and put it on a wall somewhere 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 12z Euro trying to home brew. Eastern Gulf storm at 150. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 17 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 12z Euro trying to home brew. Eastern Gulf storm at 150. GGEM also has it and it impacts our region. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GGEM also has it and it impacts our region. Define "impacts" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Define "impacts" Up to 3-4” of rain on eastern shore. Maybe TS conditions for Ocean City. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Up to 3-4” of rain on eastern shore. Maybe TS conditions for Ocean City. Nada for I-95? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Nada for I-95? Some rain (maybe 1”? Hard to tell because moisture gets pulled up ahead of a frontal boundary) and breezy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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