2023 Tropical Tracking Thread

[Its a Breeze]

And on that note, I predict we will have between .01" and 70" of snow this winter. 

LOTs of dust coming off Africa right now. Atlantic will be quiet for a while. They should have stuck with the 30% chance of an above normal season. Or lower.

 

[WxWatcher007]

My annual peak forecast is only ten days away. Crazy.

[stormy]

I predict a big spike of Atlantic tropical activity during the next 2 - 5 weeks.  The ECMWF surface pressure charts will encourage an active September. Saharan dust will tend to subside.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

What's the best link for charts for predicted sst anomalies?

[stormy]

20 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

What's the best link for charts for predicted sst anomalies?

You're lucky that I was paying attention:  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/SSTs/

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

15 minutes ago, stormy said:

You're lucky that I was paying attention:  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/SSTs/

Thanks, but I'm looking for one in map form.  A couple sources are saying they see models showing a possible modoki nino.

[MDstorm]

9 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Thanks, but I'm looking for one in map form.  A couple sources are saying they see models showing a possible modoki nino.

Here's the CFSv2 site:   CFSv2 Seasonal Climate Forecasts (noaa.gov)

Here's another good link:  Climate Prediction Center - NMME Forecasts of Monthly Climate Anomalies: 3-Month Mean Spatial Anomalies (noaa.gov)

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

9 hours ago, MDstorm said:

Here's the CFSv2 site:   CFSv2 Seasonal Climate Forecasts (noaa.gov)

Here's another good link:  Climate Prediction Center - NMME Forecasts of Monthly Climate Anomalies: 3-Month Mean Spatial Anomalies (noaa.gov)

Thank you! Those don't look very modoki-like for djf.

[WEATHER53]

Cosgrove very   dismissive of an active tropical season. Believes increase recently a big mistake

He is still very good 

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Gradually coming to life...

[mattie g]

Maybe I just haven't been paying attention, but I can't recall seeing a system that rides so closely against the Baja coast and runs into southern California like the GFS is showing for early next week.

[Its a Breeze]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

Maybe I just haven't been paying attention, but I can't recall seeing a system that rides so closely against the Baja coast and runs into southern California like the GFS is showing for early next week.

Not just GFS, looks like most or all the models are showing pretty much the same. It should be, but it's not surprising that Cali may be affected by a tropical system before anyone on the east coast...

And yeah, that is very rare. Looks like tropical storm Lidia in 2017 is the latest system that came close to that. Unless Hurricane Kay last year counts. Neither went directly into Cali.

[WxWatcher007]

GFS led the way on it too…

[Paleocene]

Euro and gfs are showing some pretty bad levels of rain for the socal environment re:flooding

[WxWatcher007]

First tropical landfall this year may be in California lol

[WxWatcher007]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1692220172457971992?s=46&t=Nn9Cx92_8118fPdhHPdJHw

[WxWatcher007]

Hilary has the look. Might be a big time event in southern CA. 

[WxWatcher007]

Impressive improvement in appearance in just the last few hours 

[WxWatcher007]

98L, although convectively disorganized, looks to be leading the pack as it has a more robust low level spin and maybe some convection trying to organize. It’s the front runner tonight to be the first NS since Don, though a combination of dry air and shear will likely kill it next week. 

98L is more convectively active but it still looks to be tied up in the monsoon trough with elongated vorticity and is still connected by my eye to the new lemon just to the west. That lemon, which the Euro continues to like, could become a player for the Antilles of it can separate. It should be noted that this region has been most convectively active, so it stands to reason if it can acquire spin and avoid SAL to the north given its location it has a legitimate chance. 

Meanwhile, nothing new for the Gulf lemon. Still worth watching but I don’t think we get a better sense of things until the disturbance reaches the Gulf. 

[09-10 analogy]

19 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hilary has the look. Might be a big time event in southern CA. 

San Diego may finally get some interesting weather for the first time in decades. 

[Eskimo Joe]

The SAL is just killing the Atlantic basin

 

[MN Transplant]

Currently in Florida.  Stepped into the Gulf water at Clearwater and it was bath tub.  91.  

[nj2va]

GFS OP (day 10!) has a major hurricane hitting Key West riding up the west coast of FL then curving NE to make another landfall around OBX.

[Maestrobjwa]

4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The SAL is just killing the Atlantic basin

 

Kinda standard operating procedure for a niño, no? (Or is the dust caused by something else?)

[Kevin Reilly]

5 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

Currently in Florida.  Stepped into the Gulf water at Clearwater and it was bath tub.  91.  

Fort Myers Beach is 94 crazy warmth and it is not local!

[Kevin Reilly]

4 hours ago, nj2va said:

GFS OP (day 10!) has a major hurricane hitting Key West riding up the west coast of FL then curving NE to make another landfall around OBX.

How is this looking on the 18z GFS?  Guess it didn't latch onto a potential vorticity?

[WxWatcher007]

6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Kinda standard operating procedure for a niño, no? (Or is the dust caused by something else?)

Not quite. SAL has been historically low until recently. Sometimes you get a double edged sword of stronger waves kicking up more dust. Climatology suggests that the SAL becomes less of an issue in September and early October when the MDR is at its peak.

On Hilary, an excellent thread on the meteorology behind the rain threat. FFWs already being issued as the PRE hits Nevada.

 

[WxWatcher007]

Alright folks, it's just about that time to ring the bell. After a dead period late July through most of August, right on cue the basin is alive. 

With a caveat. 

Let's start here. 

Despite our dead period, we've been pretty active for a Nino, which means anything near normal activity. In fact, today is the first day we go BN ACE this season according to Brian McNoldy. 

 

I only say this because now is really when the rubber needs to meet the road in determining what kind of season we have, which I'll talk about more when I do my peak season forecast.

For now, though, let's take our first look around the basin in quite some time. 

 

There are five areas to watch. The basin is active in the sense that there are legitimate disturbances out there--the basin is filled with them--but the overall environment for development, and certainly high end development, remains relatively hostile. Let's go one by one. 

Western Atlantic Orange--WxW007 Development Odds: 60% 

I've been watching this one for a while now, and while it still needs a lot of work, the guidance continues to believe that this will consolidate enough over the Gulf to allow for some modest development. We all know the water in the Gulf is warm, and actually some of the warmest on the globe this year.

However, I think the availability of moisture in the Gulf, and just enough of a window with lower shear will allow for development before a landfall in the western Gulf coast near the TX/Mexico border. Time is a factor. Let's see how coherent this disturbance is as it passes Florida. 

 

Invest 90L--Development Odds: 70%

I am bullish on this disturbance, and I have been for a while. While there was a debate on whether the monsoon trough would even break down, the western end of the trough remained convectively active. As the MT broke apart into three distinct areas, this one remained south, which is critical because it has thus far evaded the overwhelming influence of SAL and shear. 

It's not great, but it's just enough IMO, a theme of this post as we look around this part of the basin. The models may be playing catch up with this one, but let's see what the trends are today. Last night's intense convective burst was helpful IMO. This is one to watch in the Antilles, because as it moves into the Caribbean if it isn't sheared we should see stronger convection as it organizes some. Long term fate is uncertain. 

Invests 98L & 99L--Development Odds: 50%

The water vapor says it all. These two were the leaders in the clubhouse, but you have everything you need to know by my combining the two in a quick paragraph. They're too north and they're struggling in a hostile environment. 98L is about to get sandblasted by shear and SAL. While 99L looks like it has a well established LLC, it's sheared and it's only going to get worse. If I had to place bets, the NHC designates 98L eventually but it's a minimal TS at best. Meh. 

New Wave on the Block--Development Odds 50%

Another wave is poised to exit Africa, and it is another vigorous one. With 98L and 99L likely to be sacrificial waves at the end of the day, this may pave the way for this wave (or a subsequent one) to have better development odds, provided they don't get decapitated by shear. Even then, these strong waves that are forecast to come off into September may find a more favorable environment west if the SAL and TUTT shear persists in the MDR. Some guidance is latching onto this idea, but we'll see. 

[usedtobe]

On 8/16/2023 at 12:34 PM, mattie g said:

Maybe I just haven't been paying attention, but I can't recall seeing a system that rides so closely against the Baja coast and runs into southern California like the GFS is showing for early next week.

Kathleen in 1976 had almost an identical track.  It cause lots of flooding and pretty much wiped out one town. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, usedtobe said:

Kathleen in 1976 had almost an identical track.  It cause lots of flooding and pretty much wiped out one town. 

Great to see you post. Hope all is well with you and your family.