2023 Tropical Tracking Thread

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[WxWatcher007]

On cue, the operational guidance is starting to respond to what should become an increasingly favorable environment in the MDR in the last 1/3 of June. Still a bit early, but my interest has increased a little. 

[WxWatcher007]

Lemon in the MDR now.

[WxWatcher007]

12z Euro trended more robust with the wave leaving the African coast today. Pretty strong model consensus that the MDR is ripe for a TC next week. 

[WxWatcher007]

Pretty weenie GFS and Euro runs today. It’s fantasy range but you just don’t see a long track CV this time of year like the happy hour GFS, even on guidance.

[Kmlwx]

FWIW - interesting product. 

 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

I have some great news for you tropical weenies- for the first time ever, we will be traveling to the Outer Banks in September. Given our recent luck with travel, this all but guarantees an Isabel redux. I’ll be bumping this post in a few months. 

[WxWatcher007]

This is a really interesting setup. Guidance getting more bullish as the wave tries to organize a bit today. 

[NorthArlington101]

This is a really interesting setup. Guidance getting more bullish as the wave tries to organize a bit today. 

Any chance it’s not a fish storm? Wish I could get myself invested in the strong storms that go out to sea, but just can’t do it.

[WxWatcher007]

59 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Any chance it’s not a fish storm? Wish I could get myself invested in the strong storms that go out to sea, but just can’t do it.

I think it’s too early to say anything about the long range steering pattern, other than OTS is almost always the betting favorite for CVs. 

I think the weakness in the subtropical ridge makes it more likely we see a recurve, but the persistent troughing in the eastern US is something to watch, particularly since we’ve seen a lot of cutoff lows that could serve as a capture mechanism. 

Either way, this is highly anomalous, even though we had Elsa recently.

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Unsurprisingly, this evening the NHC designated the area of interest in the eastern Atlantic as Invest 92L. 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the Cabo 
Verde Islands is currently producing a broad area of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive 
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form by the early to middle portion of next week while the system 
moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Papin

 

TC genesis still needs to occur, but thus far this has been a remarkably well forecasted window for development, which @GaWx notes is highly anomalous against the historical record. There are a few reasons why this seems to be a very favorable window for development in the next week. 

First, SSTs are historically warm for this time of year. It's warm throughout the basin, but in the MDR it is particularly hot. 

Much higher than normal SSTs have allowed the MDR to be conducive at least thermodynamically. 

 

Why? In large part because of the mid/upper level pattern we haven't seen strong trade winds, or SAL, to temper warming in the MDR east of the Antilles. 

Just as important, we see a highly anomalous amount of OHC throughout the basin. This is a gif I quickly put together showing OHC values from 2016-2023 in mid June. 

And today's value as a single image:

This is only one piece of the puzzle, however. In this region we also have reduced shear, and higher moisture levels, critical elements in TC development and survival that are usually hostile this time of year. It's about as good as it gets, currently. 

Here's the 12z EPS using 5 day averaged wind shear anomalies. This is an incredible look that has trended more favorable in recent days.

Just as impressive is the moisture envelope. In recent years, dry air and stability put a cap on TC genesis and development, especially in the central and eastern MDR. That does not appear to be an issue this time, which again, is extremely impressive for mid-June. 

Coupled with the passage of a CCKW, and this all leads to a highly favorable environment IMO for TC genesis. This would be a highly favorable environment in September. 

 

It doesn't look like much now, but ASCAT shows that while elongated, it is trying to gradually consolidate. I think it will, and from there it'll be a question of

1) how quickly 92L can take advantage of the favorable environment, and
2) what the longer range steering pattern evolves into 

There's not much more to say yet, other than the operational guidance has become more bullish on intensification in the last 24 hours for the above reasons. 

As for track, while both ensembles (EPS/GEFS) look to favor an eventual recurve, it is extremely early to look long range on steering, though climo almost always favors a recurve, especially in the current upper level regime.

I would watch closely in the Antilles. 

 

 

[George BM]

Junust 16th.

[WxWatcher007]

Not as much (deep) convection yet, but 92L remains on an organizing trend. 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[WxWatcher007]

June 19th 

 

[WxWatcher007]

I’m not quite on board with believing this has implications for the rest of the season, but it’s increasingly hard not to wonder if the extraordinarily warm Atlantic is helping the atmospheric environment in the basin minimize the impact of the growing niño. 

If the niño fails to produce the typically high wind shear we see in the Atlantic, there’s no reason to believe that the season overall will be below normal. 
 

 

[George BM]

 

[WxWatcher007]

NHC tossed both the euro and gfs op forecasts on this first map.

That’s not boring @NorthArlington101

[NorthArlington101]

NHC tossed both the euro and gfs op forecasts on this first map.
That’s not boring [mention=9980]NorthArlington101[/mention]

Much less boring! While the weather is a snooze here this is something to actually watch

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Much less boring! While the weather is a snooze here this is something to actually watch

Elsa feels like an early analog, but not sure what this’ll look like by the time it gets to the islands.

[WxWatcher007]

GFS is going to be wonky but that’s an upper lever pattern that suggests a close approach at least should the Great Lakes trough cut off, which has been a theme of the season over the eastern US. 

[WxWatcher007]

Yup. Wonky lol

[WxWatcher007]

Shear took a tremendous toll on Bret overnight despite an earlier organizational trend. Euro may have a victory with the long term forecast. 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[WxWatcher007]

This is legit incredible. 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

On 6/28/2023 at 9:51 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Saharan dust may be lower than usual, but a fair amount of Canadian smoke pushing south over the Gulf of Mexico and west Atlantic, as depicted on the HRRR and confirmed by satellite.

 

[WxWatcher007]

Didn’t see this coming 

 

[H2O]

It’s really hard to see how these numbers hit. It’s so quiet now and not sure when it will get favorable. 

[Kmlwx]

Means nothing this far out...but the 0z and 6z GFS have a tropical system off the east coast in the super long range. 

[osfan24]

We could certainly use a couple of these to develop and eventually make their way here. We need rain so bad.