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2023 Tropical Tracking Thread


SnowenOutThere
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Here we go?

91L actually looks much more organized this morning, with a center trying to tuck under persistent convection looking at visible and IR. 

Up to 50% odds now by the NHC. Looks like a recon flight is warranted if this continues. 

45126515.gif?0.8734534871177151

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107 
WTNT32 KNHC 021738 CCA
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arlene Special Advisory Number   5...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022023
100 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Corrected wording in Hazards Affecting Land section

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED
INTO TROPICAL STORM ARLENE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 86.2W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM NNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 175 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arlene was
located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 86.2 West. Arlene is 
moving toward the south near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is 
expected to increase slightly through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Arlene is expected to weaken by tonight, and it 
is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air 
Force Hurricane Hunters is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with localized higher
amounts up to 5 inches are possible through Saturday across portions
of the central and southern Florida Peninsula.  This rainfall is not
directly related to Tropical Storm Arlene.  Regardless, the heavy
rainfall could lead to isolated flash, urban, and small stream
flooding impacts.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett/Delgado
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This season is going to be very interesting to watch unfold.

I wouldn’t buy what the Euro seasonal is selling verbatim. Last year it was terrible, and we see a rapidly developing Niño. I think this probably caps activity should ENSO continue on this pace, as we get a higher end moderate Nino by the peak of the season. 

There’s really a lot to unpack, but here are some initial thoughts on why there’s so much uncertainty:

1. The Atlantic is outrageously warm

It’s actually extraordinary how consistent the warming has been. Here’s a 90 day SST anomaly. Note the Nino developing and the simultaneous scale of warming anomalies throughout the Atlantic basin. 

ssta_animation_90day_45ns.gif
 

Speaking to the depth, it’s exceptionally expansive for this time of year, particularly in the MDR (including the Caribbean.

quYkPwL.jpg

2. The +AMO

The continuation of the active cycle of the AMO also heightens risk. 

IMAGE%20-%20AMO%20-%20Atlantic%20Multi-D
 

The AMO itself heightens the atmospheric conditions necessary for activity, but as we saw last year, it only takes you so far. 

3. Instability (or lack thereof)

The combination of SAL outbreaks (which are normal to an extent) and instability will be critical to the kind of season we have. In recent years, stability in the eastern MDR has dramatically limited development, forcing TC genesis toward the Caribbean and homebrew areas of the Gulf and SE coast. With the Nino likely to increase shear, especially in the Caribbean, if the eastern MDR can’t destabilize, the Caribbean shredder could make this a quiet season.

It’ll be interesting to see how the early activity off Africa handles the environment. 

4. Shear location

What the varying forecasts on the season tell me is that this is a thread the needle season. There’s no more important factor in the impact on the Antilles and US than shear location.

With a niño we’re likely to see activity further east, with a general recurve pattern. However, there are likely to be windows for closer development, and if general trades are weaker and/or TUTT and wave breaking activity is further north than anticipated, watch out. That’s impossible to tell at this stage. 
 

For now, the Atlantic looks quiet, but it may be worth watching in two-three weeks as the GFS ensemble show a potential CAG pattern setting up. You’d expect to see the EPAC spark up first and then see a development window transition to the western Atlantic.

hHezPrD.jpg

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3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

How many consecutive GFS runs have had a hurricane in the gulf next week? Kinda nuts at this point.

I saw something similar last year and it was completely wrong lol. Haven’t seen it that often though. We’ll see if we get a CAG pattern around the 20th.

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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I saw something similar last year and it was completely wrong lol. Haven’t seen it that often though. We’ll see if we get a CAG pattern around the 20th.

It’s totally on an island now, but still kinda crazy.

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46 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

"None of this is gonna happen" - Ryan Hall on these long range models.  Truer words never spoken!  Look how much has changed in the last runs.  No different than winter storms.  Rinse, wash, repeat.  Hopefully we get some rain and not too much at once!

Oh yeah, definitely fantasy runs. Just have to try to watch for the broader TC genesis pattern in the last 1/3 of June. 

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Wouldn't be surprising as we move into July. Climo starts to open up the broader basin.

jun_21_30_sm.png

 

jul_1_10_sm.png

 

We're starting to see the atmosphere respond to the rapidly strengthening Nino, but as mentioned before, the outrageous warming in the tropical Atlantic ups the chances of a nontraditional (read: normal to above normal) hurricane season--which would be a tremendous feat given this ENSO period. 

With historic warmth across the early AEW (for the uninitiated, a tropical wave) developing, and both the GEFS and EPS are in agreement (today at least) that wind shear across the MDR will be anomalously low as we close out June.

giphy.gif

 

giphy.gif

However, I think the most important factor in getting the MDR going early will be instability. Right now, that's not looking particularly high right now, but likely increases over the coming weeks.   

QrcDS0G.gif

For those that will be tracking, this is my annual message that as you're looking at operational and ensemble guidance, don't look for the weenie surface depictions. If you want to get a sense of discrete windows outside of the usual 500mb stuff, look at the vorticity plots.

I like starting at 850mb on operational models, and the ensemble mean MSLP for the ensembles. 

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