2023 Tropical Tracking Thread

[Jebman]

Yeah Otis sure redefined RI for us, lol. Tropical Storm to 165 mph Cat 5 with catastrophic gusts to 200 mph in 12 hours.

Anyone know if iCyclone was down there recording the storm in Acapulco? Josh is an international, intercontinental hurricane chaser.

THAT, would be some intriguing footage for sure!

[Jebman]

On 9/20/2023 at 10:58 AM, BristowWx said:

If it was January with that low track of the GFS for Saturday...there would be some large Bob Chill emojis and the words DC crushed and anihilated would be needed

Or an eighteen wheeler chock full of Faces, thousands of Faces. Faces 6 inches in diameter.

[mappy]

4 hours ago, Jebman said:

Yeah Otis sure redefined RI for us, lol. Tropical Storm to 165 mph Cat 5 with catastrophic gusts to 200 mph in 12 hours.

Anyone know if iCyclone was down there recording the storm in Acapulco? Josh is an international, intercontinental hurricane chaser.

THAT, would be some intriguing footage for sure!

He was not 

[gymengineer]

The 18Z GFS fantasy hurricane manages to outdo Gilbert for Jamaica, repeat a version of Flora for Cuba, and then Cleo for Miami all in one journey . 

[North Balti Zen]

I tried the workarond to embed this, but it didn't work - in any event - I think interesting given this thread...

 

https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1719189327937221004?s=20

[mattie g]

 

 

[North Balti Zen]

gracias Mattie

[WxWatcher007]

On 8/21/2023 at 1:08 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

WxWatcher007 2023 Atlantic Peak Season Forecast

Finally, I have the time to share my annual thoughts on the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. This is my fifth annual forecast and the lead up to today has seen very significant uncertainty on the tenor of the season. The season so far has actually been normal in number of storms and ACE to date, which means active for a Nino. As I write, we suddenly have a TC outbreak in the Atlantic. 

The switch is definitely flipping in the basin. 

Each year on August 20, the late Dr. William Gray and his team would ring a bell, symbolizing the start of peak season. This year, we have a historically warm basin battling a Nino that is gradually increasing in influence.

What does the August 20 - October 20 period hold? Here's my forecast. 

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 13 
Hurricanes: 6
Major Hurricanes: 3

Emily, Franklin, and Gert became named storms yesterday. Had I posted on the 20th, I would have forecast Emily and Franklin to develop, but not Gert. As a result, my verification will include that. The forecast also predicts PTC 9 and Invest 92L to become NS. That's already pretty active. 

With the current outbreak, I think the risk of a below normal season has diminished. I expect this active window to be confined to the next 4 weeks, with a sharp drop off in activity by September 20. That doesn't mean we can't/won't have NS/H/MH during the late period, but I think at that point, the evolving MJO and Nino will start closing things down. 

Over the past four seasons, I've done well with my forecasts. I view being within +/- 1 as a success, with points off the greater the error. I earned a B+ in 2019, A- in 2020, a disappointing C in 2021, and a rebounding B- in 2022. 

As a reminder, the historical average is 14/7/3. With this peak season forecast I am now forecasting an overall 18/7/3 with more NS than normal, a normal hurricane number, and normal MH number due to decreasing shear during the peak and the exceptionally warm basin even in the central Atlantic. I see ACE around normal. 

1. ENSO
After a three year Nina, we're solidly in an El Nino regime. Of course, every ENSO event is different, and intensity/location matters a lot. Given what I project (and I will admit I am not as good with the intensity/location stuff) and what I've seen so far, the fundamental atmospheric response in the Atlantic that allows for anomalously high shear through the basin has not yet occurred, despite the shear in the basin currently. During the peak guidance actually shows a decrease in shear, but the influence of the Nino should eventually increase, bringing a wind down of activity around the basin (particularly the Caribbean) approximately four weeks from now.   

2. West African Monsoon
The WAM has shown mixed signals so far this season, but now that we're entering the peak it is ramping up. We've seen numerous strong African Easterly Waves (AEWs) that have rolled off Africa, and if the GFS Ensembles are to be believed, it should continue through at least early September. With CV season coming, this is essential to the forecast, even if the MDR remains somewhat hostile with subsidence because it provides a launching point for strong waves to survive the trek into the western Atlantic where there may be more favorable conditions depending on shear.

 

3. Wind Shear
For the most part, shear has been the opposite of what you'd expect for a Nino. Recently it has gotten much worse, but that hasn't stopped development across the basin. It has, however, limited intensity potential, which is part of the reason why I am not interested in going above normal on H or MH numbers.

 

I do think we're going to continue having issues with TUTTs, but I don't anticipate the incredibly consistent wave breaking we saw last year that really capped potential in the basin. There is fairly high confidence in this, given the agreement by the ensembles and the seasonal trend thus far. 

 

Eventually I think the Nino will take over, but not until the damage has been done.  

 

4. SST Anomalies/OHC
If we didn't have the extraordinary SST anomalies and OHC dominating the basin, this would undoubtably be a BN season. This has really allowed for the early MDR NS, marginal activity in the basin in the face of shear/dry air, and for Don to become our first hurricane in July. It is historic warmth, and while SSTs are not the piece that drives a season, they are an essential piece. 

 

 

5. SAL & Stability
The check on the season so far hasn't been shear, it has been SAL and stability. After being historically low earlier in the season, SAL came back with a vengeance in July and August, stabilizing much of the basin and completely closing down even cloud development in the MDR. In fact, vertical instability has been well below climo all year in the tropical Atlantic. 

Times are changing though. SAL is on the decline as we reach the peak of the season, as is usually the case. The sacrificial waves, which all became named storms along the monsoon trough, has dramatically decreased SAL and moistened the environment around the basin, further increasing confidence in an active month ahead. I can't embed the gif, but the link is below. 

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html

5. CCKW/MJO
Finally, although we can't see very far, we do also have another factor making an active month more likely. It looks like we are getting favorable passage of a CCKW and the MJO looks to be on the side of Atlantic activity for the next few weeks. This should continue to promote vigorous waves. Not all will develop, but it should keep moistening the MDR and allow for waves to get further west.

Overall
I didn't want to go big, because we still don't know how much shear and stability will truly subside in the coming weeks. Honestly, before this week I was leaning BN overall. With the current state of the Atlantic however and a more favorable period coming aside from the annual start of the climatological peak, I do believe we see an active period that gets us to near normal before a decline after September 20 and an abrupt end by October 20. 

I do think that we see a lot of named storms, but because I am hedging a little more conservative I think we have fewer hurricane chances of those NS. That said, the ones that do become hurricanes will have a chance to become majors, leaving me to predict that 3 of the 6 hurricanes I project developing become majors. 

Final Note--Landfall Odds
The past three years have seen high end storms landfall in the US, and I don't think that changes this year. With higher activity comes a greater statistical chance of a US landfall, and I do believe we have a fourth consecutive year with a major hurricane landfall in the continental United States. 

We'll see what happens. Happy tracking. 

 

With the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season ending in a few hours, it's time to hand in the final grade. The forecast above called for a very active period between August 20-September 20, followed by a sharp drop off in Atlantic activity and things essentially being closed out by October 20th. That was about as spot on as anyone could get, with a high end period of activity during that month and then a decline as conditions became more unfavorable. There were 5 NS after September 20, but only one became a hurricane, on the last day of my forecast period no less. One major hurricane did make landfall in the continental US, Idalia in FL at the end of August.

To be spot on with the number of Hurricanes and Major Hurricanes is a win that will be hard to replicate. 

WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 13 (15)
Hurricanes: 6 (6)
Major Hurricanes: 3 (3)

Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot (H), Nigel (H), Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy (H)

Grade: A