WxWatcher007 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 The trend on the GFS at least has been for a stronger low to develop off the coast. Despite the currently low development odds by the NHC, I think this one has a good shot of becoming a subtropical storm Friday or Saturday. Euro is much more strung out, and we’ll see if that trends toward the GFS given the convection off the SE coast. Anything that develops will probably be messy, especially if it’s subtropical, but any organization enhances the rain risk and coastal wind potential. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 If it was January with that low track of the GFS for Saturday...there would be some large Bob Chill emojis and the words DC crushed and anihilated would be needed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: If it was January with that low track of the GFS for Saturday...there would be some large Bob Chill emojis and the words DC crushed and anihilated would be needed The low is pretty far west...probably a lot of pinging if not 33 and rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 3 hours ago, Kmlwx said: The low is pretty far west...probably a lot of pinging if not 33 and rain Yep. I realized that when terp mentioned high and howling east winds. 81 would be happy. Gonna be a long winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 5 hours ago, Kmlwx said: The low is pretty far west...probably a lot of pinging if not 33 and rain Ready to head west to Deep Creek. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 8 hours ago, BristowWx said: If it was January with that low track of the GFS for Saturday...there would be some large Bob Chill emojis and the words DC crushed and anihilated would be needed The next storm turns nw directly in to Delmarva 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 8 hours ago, BristowWx said: If it was January with that low track of the GFS for Saturday...there would be some large Bob Chill emojis and the words DC crushed and anihilated would be needed I am not so sure about that all the warm air would come right on up into the area most likely would be a warm wet El Nino soaker with plenty of wind out of the East and east southeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: I am not so sure about that all the warm air would come right on up into the area most likely would be a warm wet El Nino soaker with plenty of wind out of the East and east southeast. I’m thinking the same. It would be better with a wave diving SE from the pna ridge and track NEward with a core cold air just to the north. Not an omega block like this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 00z 12K NAM drops 2.5-3”+ area wide. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (11) Hurricanes: 6 (5) Major Hurricanes: 3 (3) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot (H), Nigel (H), Ophelia 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (11) Hurricanes: 6 (5) Major Hurricanes: 3 (3) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot (H), Nigel (H), Ophelia Going to have Philippe very soon based on satellite presentation of that cherry in the MDR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 6z GFS has a weird low hook into the coast after 200hrs. Wacky! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (11) Hurricanes: 6 (5) Major Hurricanes: 3 (3) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot (H), Nigel (H), Ophelia Perfection is within your reach! Good stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Another one. Unclear if this gets to H status, but that’d be nice lol. The slowdown should be here, so Philippe may be it until October unless the lemon develops. WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (12) Hurricanes: 6 (5) Major Hurricanes: 3 (3) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot (H), Nigel (H), Ophelia, Philippe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 The lemon developed. Unclear what the next opportunity for TC genesis is but I think this is probably it for MDR systems. Once Philippe and Rina separate, one of them may thrive for a bit. 13 NS since Aug 20 is a record. WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (13) Hurricanes: 6 (5) Major Hurricanes: 3 (3) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot (H), Nigel (H), Ophelia, Philippe, Rina 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: The lemon developed. Unclear what the next opportunity for TC genesis is but I think this is probably it for MDR systems. Once Philippe and Rina separate, one of them may thrive for a bit. 13 NS since Aug 20 is a record. WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (13) Hurricanes: 6 (5) Major Hurricanes: 3 (3) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot (H), Nigel (H), Ophelia, Philippe, Rina How many years have you been doing these now? Damn impressive this year. I thought we were going to blow through your numbers a couple weeks ago but the slowdown does seem imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 1 hour ago, TSG said: How many years have you been doing these now? Damn impressive this year. I thought we were going to blow through your numbers a couple weeks ago but the slowdown does seem imminent. This is year 5. By far my best. I just need one of these to separate and become one a cane lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 This is year 5. By far my best. I just need one of these to separate and become one a cane lol.Ophelia post-season upgrade could get you there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: The lemon developed. Unclear what the next opportunity for TC genesis is but I think this is probably it for MDR systems. Once Philippe and Rina separate, one of them may thrive for a bit. 13 NS since Aug 20 is a record. WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (13) Hurricanes: 6 (5) Major Hurricanes: 3 (3) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot (H), Nigel (H), Ophelia, Philippe, Rina Seriously, though, this is one of those instances where it feels like someone controls the weather, not predicts it. I mean that in the best way possible. Just wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 Weak sauce in the MDR WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (14) Hurricanes: 6 (5) Major Hurricanes: 3 (3) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot (H), Nigel (H), Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 We have Tammy. Chance this becomes a hurricane as the forecast period wraps up. WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (15) Hurricanes: 6 (5) Major Hurricanes: 3 (3) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot (H), Nigel (H), Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 Tammy becomes a hurricane on the last day of my forecast period! Hurricane Tammy Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1000 AM AST Fri Oct 20 2023 ...TAMMY BECOMES A HURRICANE... NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that Tammy has become a hurricane. The maximum winds are estimated to be 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. The initial and forecast intensities will be updated with the next advisory that will be issued at 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC). SUMMARY OF 1000 AM AST...1400 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 58.5W ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM NE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (15) Hurricanes: 6 (6) Major Hurricanes: 3 (3) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot (H), Nigel (H), Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy (H) 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 You freaking nailed it dude 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 I’ll do a review soon but there’s exceptional RI taking place in the EPAC. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Damn! Hurricane Otis Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 Satellite data indicated that Otis continued to strengthen to near the time of landfall in southern Mexico. Subjective Dvorak data T-numbers were around T7.0 (140 kt) around 04-05Z while raw objective ADT numbers were in the T7.2 to T7.6 range between about 01-05Z. Based on that data, Otis is estimated to have made landfall around 0625 UTC as a category 5 hurricane with maximum winds of 145 kt. The core of the hurricane moved onshore in the greater Acapulco area. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 12 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’ll do a review soon but there’s exceptional RI taking place in the EPAC. Just an all-time whiff by, like EVERY model, right? Like, literally, the people there did not have any real advance warning of this, right? Like four categories of off... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 31 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Just an all-time whiff by, like EVERY model, right? Like, literally, the people there did not have any real advance warning of this, right? Like four categories of off... Yep. No indication whatsoever that this would become even a hurricane 24 hours out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyHolt Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 I said it earlier in the season - the expression rapid intensification is being re-defined - rapidly. Run of the mill standard RI can be RI1. Explosive intensification can be RI5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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