Kmlwx Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 TEAL82 and TEAL83 tracking over the Bahamas right now heading to forward deploy for their recon missions during the upcoming days for Lee. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 59 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: TEAL82 and TEAL83 tracking over the Bahamas right now heading to forward deploy for their recon missions during the upcoming days for Lee. Does NHC still only fly the 130s or are they utilizing something like Global Hawk, as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 15 minutes ago, mattie g said: Does NHC still only fly the 130s or are they utilizing something like Global Hawk, as well? https://psl.noaa.gov/psd2/coastal/satres/ghawk_dropsonde.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 ALEET! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 BEAST of a forecast! INIT 07/1500Z 16.4N 50.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 17.1N 51.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 18.2N 54.0W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 19.2N 56.1W 140 KT 160 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 20.1N 58.1W 140 KT 160 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 20.9N 59.8W 135 KT 155 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 21.5N 61.2W 135 KT 155 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 22.6N 63.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 23.6N 66.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Looks great! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 So does Lee suck up all the hot water so we don't have the SE ridge ruin winter this year!!!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 16 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Looks great! Still just getting started too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Euro made my eyes open wide. I feel anotherAleet coming soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Did it shift closer to the seaboard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 I think the trough is weakening, which might allow it to move closer to the coast. I am no expert, but that is what I gathered from the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 47 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Euro made my eyes open wide. I feel anotherAleet coming soon. But his last aleet was because he wanted to tell folks that the Euro output was showing *less* movement westward. We just watch the Euro come out and wait for him to post about it. Every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, mattie g said: But his last aleet was because he wanted to tell folks that the Euro output was showing *less* movement westward. We just watch the Euro come out and wait for him to post about it. Every time. Yes. This. It's hilarious. And sad. But, hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Lee now a Category 4. Forecasted to become a 145kt Cat 5 tomorrow. Not sure I've ever seen a forecast that strong for a storm not already a 5. Maybe once before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 With Lee becoming a major and Margot now expected to become a hurricane, forecast is in even better shape. WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (9) Hurricanes: 6 (3) Major Hurricanes: 3 (3) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 New England not out of the game that’s for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 The thing is already Cat 4. ^That model doesn't show it hitting Cat 4 for another 60 hours. We do ultimately have a +PNA trough sticking in, but it's still pretty far south at 17N, and until it reaches 20N, that's when climo takes it away. 20N/60W is a huge point for it to pass NE or SW from for hits, a NE pass goes out to sea 90% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 WB 18Z GEFS yesterday v today. Impressive storm should stay well off mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS yesterday v today. Impressive storm should stay well off mid Atlantic. Wouldn’t say anything like that just yet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 What a monster already! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 44 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Wouldn’t say anything like that just yet. I should have said based on current modeling. It is a dangerous storm. Also there will still be rip currents moving in at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Very possible we are seeing a Category 5 hurricane this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 It's absolutely a 5 IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Lee is probably 180+ at 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Comes in at 160! New max of 180 expected INIT 08/0300Z 17.3N 52.4W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 18.1N 54.0W 155 KT 180 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 19.1N 56.1W 150 KT 175 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 20.1N 58.0W 145 KT 165 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 20.9N 59.6W 140 KT 160 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 21.5N 60.9W 135 KT 155 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 22.1N 62.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 23.2N 64.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 24.1N 66.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 15 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Comes in at 160! New max of 180 expected INIT 08/0300Z 17.3N 52.4W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 18.1N 54.0W 155 KT 180 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 19.1N 56.1W 150 KT 175 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 20.1N 58.0W 145 KT 165 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 20.9N 59.6W 140 KT 160 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 21.5N 60.9W 135 KT 155 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 22.1N 62.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 23.2N 64.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 24.1N 66.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 160 very conservative based on recon easlily showing 155+ kts surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 22 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: 160 very conservative based on recon easlily showing 155+ kts surface Thinking that was gusts and not sustained. May have been conservative though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Interesting little statement here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Gefs took decent jump west. Canadian now also near Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 That rapid intensification was crazy. an 80mph storm at 11pm Wednesday, to 160mph at 11pm last night. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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