Kmlwx Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 37 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I was looking at yesterdays run . This is what I get for trying to start a cloudy Monday with no coffee. I figured as much - Mondays really suck. At least we likely will have *something* tropical to track probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 3 hours ago, Kmlwx said: I figured as much - Mondays really suck. At least we likely will have *something* tropical to track probably I just got accepted into an emergency management class the week of the 25th that I've been waitlisted for 3 years on. It won't be offered again until autumn 2024. Bank on a hurricane canceling the class. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 12z gfs take Nigel into NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 41 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: 12z gfs take Nigel into NYC. We get like 3 hours of light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 Margot the hurricane. AL, 14, 2023091118, , BEST, 0, 265N, 398W, 65, 988, HU 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 Margot now a hurricane. Not expected to become a major… WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (9) Hurricanes: 6 (4) Major Hurricanes: 3 (3) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot (H) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 We have Nigel. Staying below MH will be big for the forecast, though I think I’ll end up too low with NS at this point. We’ll see. WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (10) Hurricanes: 6 (4) Major Hurricanes: 3 (3) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot (H), Nigel 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Homebrew signal for next weekend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Homebrew signal for next weekend Blocking to our North. WPC trending wetter over time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Note: Nineteen year anniversary of northern/central VAs most prolific tornado outbreak, probably in recorded history. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 Lemon off the SE coast now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 GFS again with a heavy rain event from the potential homebrew 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 39 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: GFS again with a heavy rain event from the potential homebrew Definitely a rainmaker but maybe subtropical depression at best? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 Just now, WxUSAF said: Definitely a rainmaker but maybe subtropical depression at best? Yeah I think maybe a low end subtropical/tropical storm at best? Maybe a larger area of strong winds too with a gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 The 12z GFS and GEM stand pat with an inland runner. Out here in Augusta County the 06z run gave a blend of 2.94". The 12z run gives a blend of 2.99". I'll take it after a total to date for Sept of 1.39". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 12z GFS looks less intense in terms of rainfall than 6z but GGEM still looks pretty ugly. Not ideal on a Saturday but a big soaker would be so helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 Would be a bit of a sh*tty weekend if that came about, but I guess I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 Euro on a different planet for the weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 BAD news!!!! The ECM kills the weekend system. Erodes the BH and strings out ATC. Weaker system rides north from Florida by Tuesday giving lighter rain to IA. I still have my fingers crossed for pouring rain next Saturday and Sunday. Go GFS and GEM!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Remember this and all the overtime for the follow weeks well! One of if not the most highest impact weather events for this area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Euro on a different planet for the weekend 12z run made a move to a stronger upper ridge over Hudson Bay, and thus a stronger surface HP just to the SE in eastern Canada. Acting as more of a block rather than a progressive high. Suppresses the SE LP/forces the deep moisture more offshore. GFS and CMC disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 WPC is buying the idea of significant rainfall for the entire area D5-7 on their latest qpf forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 The next weekend weather hinges on the strength and tenacity of potentially blocking HP over the north Atlantic. The 18z GFS is trying to cave to the ECM by slightly weakening the HP and displacing 150 miles to the SE. This disrupts the trajectory of Atlantic moist feed into the system which still comes inland. Saturday would be the wettest day in this scenerio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Looks like Nigel with its tractor tire eye will struggle to get to MH status. We're watching a lemon off the SE coast and cherry in the MDR. The MDR is slowing down for the absurd pace of the last four weeks as expected, and my forecast is looking excellent so far. Probably turning to homebrew season now. WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (10) Hurricanes: 6 (5) Major Hurricanes: 3 (3) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot (H), Nigel (H) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 The ECMWF now says nobody inland of the bay gets any rain on the weekend. The North Atlantic HP collapses to the southeast opening up a clear escape route from building HP over eastern Canada. GFS and GGEM are hanging on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Put the 18z GFS in the bank and stop the Nonsense! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 3 hours ago, stormy said: The ECMWF now says nobody inland of the bay gets any rain on the weekend. The North Atlantic HP collapses to the southeast opening up a clear escape route from building HP over eastern Canada. GFS and GGEM are hanging on. Euro has been garbage for about a year now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 16 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Euro has been garbage for about a year now. 100% agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 12 hours ago, TSSN+ said: Euro has been garbage for about a year now. Yea at least for this domain it's terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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