2023 Tropical Tracking Thread

[mattie g]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

There were some openly wondering whether we'd get through August with no named storms  

In all seriousness though, hindsight is 20/20, and September still needs to produce because I do think things ramp down quickly after September 20. 

Hindsight is 20/20, but we had all kinds of folks on here stating that they didn't think NHC should have doubled down on their call for an above-average season. I didn't point it out at the time, but it always amazes me when people think they know so much better than experts.

Experts can be wrong, of course, but it seemed pretty obvious that they were confident coming into mid-August despite the basin looking dead for a long time prior.

[wkd]

2 hours ago, mattie g said:

Folks still saying they know better than the NHC's calls for an active remainder of the season?

Along the same idea, a lot of people think the NHC's cone for the path or time and degree of  intensification of a tropical system is way off because they look at all the models and satelitte presentations and think they know better. In many cases they are correct but in most I don't think they are. 

[WxWatcher007]

First major of the season is Franklin. 

WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 13 (5)
Hurricanes: 6 (1)
Major Hurricanes: 3 (1)

Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia

[Its a Breeze]

20 hours ago, mattie g said:

Hindsight is 20/20, but we had all kinds of folks on here stating that they didn't think NHC should have doubled down on their call for an above-average season. I didn't point it out at the time, but it always amazes me when people think they know so much better than experts.

Experts can be wrong, of course, but it seemed pretty obvious that they were confident coming into mid-August despite the basin looking dead for a long time prior.

Low end, for the NHC forecast to be on target we'll need the vast majority of the 5 more named storms, 4 of which become hurricanes, in the next couple weeks. High end, we'll need the majority of the 12 more named storms and 9 more hurricanes in the next couple weeks.

Sure we can do the low end, it's just that in an El Nino year, it's not going to get easier moving forward. We're up against time.

 

For Colorado State - we need 9 more name storms and 7 more hurricanes.

Tough ask.

 

****

Edit to add -

Franklin is absolutely magnificent right now. Beautiful storm.

[southmdwatcher]

Franklin is an incredible hurricane, and for those always wishing for the up the Bay track it has the right angle of approach at this moment. But the trough will kick Franklin and Idalia well east after South Carolina. We shall see, if either storm loops back towards the East Coast. Some models have hinted at that possibility.

[dailylurker]

Visible satellite of Franklin looks amazing right now. It's late afternoon out there and the sun angle really shows that beautiful stadium effect. What a beautiful display of raw natural power. 

[MN Transplant]

I’m mobile so I’m not sure I’m getting this right, but I’m seeing very few major hurricane landfalls in the Big Bend area, and really from Appalachicola to Tampa.

https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map=6.76/29.139/-83.246&search=eyJzZWFyY2hTdHJpbmciOiJGbG9yaWRhLCBVU0EiLCJzZWFyY2hUeXBlIjoiZ2VvY29kZWQiLCJvc21JRCI6IjE2MjA1MCIsImNhdGVnb3JpZXMiOlsiSDUiLCJINCIsIkgzIl0sInllYXJzIjpbXSwibW9udGhzIjpbXSwiZW5zbyI6W10sInByZXNzdXJlIjp7InJhbmdlIjpbMCwxMDMwXSwiaW5jbHVkZVVua25vd25QcmVzc3VyZSI6dHJ1ZX0sImJ1ZmZlciI6NjAsImJ1ZmZlclVuaXQiOlsiTmF1dGljYWwgTWlsZXMiXSwic29ydFNlbGVjdGlvbiI6eyJ2YWx1ZSI6InllYXJzX25ld2VzdCIsImxhYmVsIjoiWWVhciAoTmV3ZXN0KSJ9LCJhcHBseVRvQU9JIjp0cnVlLCJpc1N0b3JtTGFiZWxzVmlzaWJsZSI6dHJ1ZX0=

[Round Hill WX]

11 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I’m mobile so I’m not sure I’m getting this right, but I’m seeing very few major hurricane landfalls in the Big Bend area, and really from Appalachicola to Tampa.

https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map=6.76/29.139/-83.246&search=eyJzZWFyY2hTdHJpbmciOiJGbG9yaWRhLCBVU0EiLCJzZWFyY2hUeXBlIjoiZ2VvY29kZWQiLCJvc21JRCI6IjE2MjA1MCIsImNhdGVnb3JpZXMiOlsiSDUiLCJINCIsIkgzIl0sInllYXJzIjpbXSwibW9udGhzIjpbXSwiZW5zbyI6W10sInByZXNzdXJlIjp7InJhbmdlIjpbMCwxMDMwXSwiaW5jbHVkZVVua25vd25QcmVzc3VyZSI6dHJ1ZX0sImJ1ZmZlciI6NjAsImJ1ZmZlclVuaXQiOlsiTmF1dGljYWwgTWlsZXMiXSwic29ydFNlbGVjdGlvbiI6eyJ2YWx1ZSI6InllYXJzX25ld2VzdCIsImxhYmVsIjoiWWVhciAoTmV3ZXN0KSJ9LCJhcHBseVRvQU9JIjp0cnVlLCJpc1N0b3JtTGFiZWxzVmlzaWJsZSI6dHJ1ZX0=

If landfall occurs in the Big Bend it would be best case scenario. There is very little population density or infrastructure. Tampa likely dodging it again....

[MN Transplant]

Just now, Round Hill WX said:

If landfall occurs in the Big Bend it would be best case scenario. There is very little population density or infrastructure. Tampa likely dodging it again....

Fully agree.

[09-10 analogy]

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

I’m mobile so I’m not sure I’m getting this right, but I’m seeing very few major hurricane landfalls in the Big Bend area, and really from Appalachicola to Tampa.

https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map=6.76/29.139/-83.246&search=eyJzZWFyY2hTdHJpbmciOiJGbG9yaWRhLCBVU0EiLCJzZWFyY2hUeXBlIjoiZ2VvY29kZWQiLCJvc21JRCI6IjE2MjA1MCIsImNhdGVnb3JpZXMiOlsiSDUiLCJINCIsIkgzIl0sInllYXJzIjpbXSwibW9udGhzIjpbXSwiZW5zbyI6W10sInByZXNzdXJlIjp7InJhbmdlIjpbMCwxMDMwXSwiaW5jbHVkZVVua25vd25QcmVzc3VyZSI6dHJ1ZX0sImJ1ZmZlciI6NjAsImJ1ZmZlclVuaXQiOlsiTmF1dGljYWwgTWlsZXMiXSwic29ydFNlbGVjdGlvbiI6eyJ2YWx1ZSI6InllYXJzX25ld2VzdCIsImxhYmVsIjoiWWVhciAoTmV3ZXN0KSJ9LCJhcHBseVRvQU9JIjp0cnVlLCJpc1N0b3JtTGFiZWxzVmlzaWJsZSI6dHJ1ZX0=

Then there's the Superstorm of 1993, which "came ashore" somewhere around there. Several people died in the associated storm surge, I guess you would call it. 

[WxWatcher007]

This is WxWatcher007 reporting live from Chiefland, FL, just inland from Cedar Key. We have a hurricane warning here and folks are taking the storm seriously. The forecast for the center is very tricky even now, as some models have been trending westward toward a near direct hit of Tallahassee while others are further east down to Cedar Key. The parallel track along the west coast of Florida makes this hard. I am hedging east right now, but am prepared to move north if necessary this evening. Will monitor trends. 

As is usually the case, my friend @MillvilleWx is in communication with me, and this time I'm grateful to have @ORH_wxman supporting as well. If I lose power and internet, I'll be in touch with them so that everyone here knows I'm ok. 

Driving in last night there was a wicked storm to my south. Perhaps a preview...

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is WxWatcher007 reporting live from Chiefland, FL, just inland from Cedar Key. We have a hurricane warning here and folks are taking the storm seriously. The forecast for the center is very tricky even now, as some models have been trending westward toward a near direct hit of Tallahassee while others are further east down to Cedar Key. The parallel track along the west coast of Florida makes this hard. I am hedging east right now, but am prepared to move north if necessary this evening. Will monitor trends. 

As is usually the case, my friend @MillvilleWx is in communication with me, and this time I'm grateful to have @ORH_wxman supporting as well. If I lose power and internet, I'll be in touch with them so that everyone here knows I'm ok. 

Driving in last night there was a wicked storm to my south. Perhaps a preview...

Good luck and BE SAFE

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

Good luck and BE SAFE

Always! 

[clskinsfan]

The main thread is annoying. I will stay here and post with my sub friends. The western part of the storm seems to be firing up right now. I dont think the hunters flew through the western eye wall. But shw is clearly trying to get her act together.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-13-96-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

 

[WxWatcher007]

 

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 14:29Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Name: Idalia
Storm Number & Year: 10 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 25 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 13:30:53Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.29N 84.85W
B. Center Fix Location: 177 statute miles (285 km) to the WNW (297°) from Havana, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,931m (9,616ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 978mb (28.88 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 310° at 10kts (From the NW at 12mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 45kts (51.8mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the SW (217°) of center fix at 13:28:40Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 317° at 51kts (From the NW at 58.7mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the SW (222°) of center fix at 13:27:46Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 70kts (80.6mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NE (55°) of center fix at 13:34:45Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 163° at 71kts (From the SSE at 81.7mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix at 13:35:59Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,059m (10,036ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,064m (10,052ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) from the flight level center at 13:35:59Z

[George BM]

39 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is WxWatcher007 reporting live from Chiefland, FL, just inland from Cedar Key. We have a hurricane warning here and folks are taking the storm seriously. The forecast for the center is very tricky even now, as some models have been trending westward toward a near direct hit of Tallahassee while others are further east down to Cedar Key. The parallel track along the west coast of Florida makes this hard. I am hedging east right now, but am prepared to move north if necessary this evening. Will monitor trends. 

As is usually the case, my friend @MillvilleWx is in communication with me, and this time I'm grateful to have @ORH_wxman supporting as well. If I lose power and internet, I'll be in touch with them so that everyone here knows I'm ok. 

Driving in last night there was a wicked storm to my south. Perhaps a preview...

Have fun!... obviously ditto to what Mappy said above as well. 

[WxWatcher007]

The main thread can get messy so quickly 

[H2O]

14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The main thread can get messy so quickly 

nice to remain blissfully unaware.  lol

[MN Transplant]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is WxWatcher007 reporting live from Chiefland, FL, just inland from Cedar Key. We have a hurricane warning here and folks are taking the storm seriously. The forecast for the center is very tricky even now, as some models have been trending westward toward a near direct hit of Tallahassee while others are further east down to Cedar Key. The parallel track along the west coast of Florida makes this hard. I am hedging east right now, but am prepared to move north if necessary this evening. Will monitor trends. 

As is usually the case, my friend @MillvilleWx is in communication with me, and this time I'm grateful to have @ORH_wxman supporting as well. If I lose power and internet, I'll be in touch with them so that everyone here knows I'm ok. 

Driving in last night there was a wicked storm to my south. Perhaps a preview...

How far would you consider going west?  I could imagine Perry even being in play.

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

How far would you consider going west?  I could imagine Perry even being in play.

I actually had a place in Perry but hedged east and gave it back yesterday. Problem is that a landfall at Steinhatchee would be roughly the same distance from here as it would be from Perry. And of course, guidance continues looking even further west.

Its just one of those things that’ll require me to keep watching the trend today with storm motion. I need to see when this NNE turn happens. It’ll be close. 

[midatlanticweather]

Not sure I am seeing things right, but it seems we had a little more North Northwestward jog based on satellite images. Anyone else see this? It is not too significant, but could have some implications! 

 

[MN Transplant]

6 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Not sure I am seeing things right, but it seems we had a little more North Northwestward jog based on satellite images. Anyone else see this? It is not too significant, but could have some implications! 

 

If you look at the HAFS-B from 06z, which seems to be about the west most model, it swings out from 85W to 85.5W before coming back east.  It’ll be interesting to see if we get a westerly component as the day goes on.

[MN Transplant]

11 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

If you look at the HAFS-B from 06z, which seems to be about the west most model, it swings out from 85W to 85.5W before coming back east.  It’ll be interesting to see if we get a westerly component as the day goes on.

With visualization of the HAFS-B location this evening.  I’m skeptical it gets that far west.

[Its a Breeze]

14 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Not sure I am seeing things right, but it seems we had a little more North Northwestward jog based on satellite images. Anyone else see this? It is not too significant, but could have some implications! 

 

Hard to tell. It looks like a bit of dry air is trying to intrude right now which may be responsible for any slight jogs. And we'll see if that temporarily stems any rapid intensification for the time being...

[WxWatcher007]

There will def be jogs west and east as this rapidly intensifies. Just try to pay attention to the long term trend. 

[mappy]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The main thread can get messy so quickly 

and thats why i dont go in there lol

[jacindc]

A few years ago I drove US98 from Ft. Walton Beach all the way to Tampa (with a detour to Cedar Key). A whole lot of Dollar Generals are going to get washed away on this track.

 

 

[mappy]

40 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

There will def be jogs west and east as this rapidly intensifies. Just try to pay attention to the long term trend. 

do be careful in cedar key -- seeing a lot of worrisome twitter posts about storm surge for that area. (sorry, its the mom in me to tell you twice lol)

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, mappy said:

do be careful in cedar key -- seeing a lot of worrisome twitter posts about storm surge for that area. (sorry, its the mom in me to tell you twice lol)

Definitely further inland and away from any surge threat. Thinking I may be headed northwest given the continued model shifts. 

[H2O]

38 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Definitely further inland and away from any surge threat. Thinking I may be headed northwest given the continued model shifts. 

Go with the CMC