WxWatcher007 Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 Here we go? 91L actually looks much more organized this morning, with a center trying to tuck under persistent convection looking at visible and IR. Up to 50% odds now by the NHC. Looks like a recon flight is warranted if this continues. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 Up to 70% odds now with the first recon mission of the year about to begin. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 Recon descending into 91L now. You can tell via visible satellite that dry air is nearby, but the circulation does look better defined at least at the mid level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 Some tropical storm winds at flight level and via SFMR on the latest batch of data from recon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 Some tropical storm winds at flight level and via SFMR on the latest batch of data from recon. When do we get to talk about how this should be Bret? Still don’t understand why they couldn’t retroactively name the January storm Arlene. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 More TS winds in the newest data. Just need to find a well-defined LLC now IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 I think we have enough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 32 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I think we have enough. Bring us home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 TD Two at 5pm 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 2, 2023 Share Posted June 2, 2023 107 WTNT32 KNHC 021738 CCA TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Arlene Special Advisory Number 5...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023 100 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023 Corrected wording in Hazards Affecting Land section ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM ARLENE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 86.2W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM NNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 175 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arlene was located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 86.2 West. Arlene is moving toward the south near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to increase slightly through tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Arlene is expected to weaken by tonight, and it is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with localized higher amounts up to 5 inches are possible through Saturday across portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. This rainfall is not directly related to Tropical Storm Arlene. Regardless, the heavy rainfall could lead to isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett/Delgado 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 2, 2023 Share Posted June 2, 2023 They just wanted to burn thru the A name Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 3, 2023 Share Posted June 3, 2023 9 hours ago, H2O said: They just wanted to burn thru the A name I think it was close enough yesterday. Just happens to be typical early season slop. Interesting that it developed in the coolest part of the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 5, 2023 Share Posted June 5, 2023 This season is going to be very interesting to watch unfold. I wouldn’t buy what the Euro seasonal is selling verbatim. Last year it was terrible, and we see a rapidly developing Niño. I think this probably caps activity should ENSO continue on this pace, as we get a higher end moderate Nino by the peak of the season. There’s really a lot to unpack, but here are some initial thoughts on why there’s so much uncertainty: 1. The Atlantic is outrageously warm It’s actually extraordinary how consistent the warming has been. Here’s a 90 day SST anomaly. Note the Nino developing and the simultaneous scale of warming anomalies throughout the Atlantic basin. Speaking to the depth, it’s exceptionally expansive for this time of year, particularly in the MDR (including the Caribbean. 2. The +AMO The continuation of the active cycle of the AMO also heightens risk. The AMO itself heightens the atmospheric conditions necessary for activity, but as we saw last year, it only takes you so far. 3. Instability (or lack thereof) The combination of SAL outbreaks (which are normal to an extent) and instability will be critical to the kind of season we have. In recent years, stability in the eastern MDR has dramatically limited development, forcing TC genesis toward the Caribbean and homebrew areas of the Gulf and SE coast. With the Nino likely to increase shear, especially in the Caribbean, if the eastern MDR can’t destabilize, the Caribbean shredder could make this a quiet season. It’ll be interesting to see how the early activity off Africa handles the environment. 4. Shear location What the varying forecasts on the season tell me is that this is a thread the needle season. There’s no more important factor in the impact on the Antilles and US than shear location. With a niño we’re likely to see activity further east, with a general recurve pattern. However, there are likely to be windows for closer development, and if general trades are weaker and/or TUTT and wave breaking activity is further north than anticipated, watch out. That’s impossible to tell at this stage. For now, the Atlantic looks quiet, but it may be worth watching in two-three weeks as the GFS ensemble show a potential CAG pattern setting up. You’d expect to see the EPAC spark up first and then see a development window transition to the western Atlantic. 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 Gotta love the fantasy GFS activity. Red meat for the tropical weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 7, 2023 Share Posted June 7, 2023 19 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Gotta love the fantasy GFS activity. Red meat for the tropical weenies. Can there please not be a cane in the Gulf in JUNE while I’m visiting Florida?? Please and thank you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 8, 2023 Share Posted June 8, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 8, 2023 Share Posted June 8, 2023 We're definitely due. Someone did a correlation that Winter's like 2002 followed dry times. Sometimes those far out correlations hit closer term, could be a tropical storm if we stay dry until then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 How many consecutive GFS runs have had a hurricane in the gulf next week? Kinda nuts at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: How many consecutive GFS runs have had a hurricane in the gulf next week? Kinda nuts at this point. I saw something similar last year and it was completely wrong lol. Haven’t seen it that often though. We’ll see if we get a CAG pattern around the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 5 hours ago, WxUSAF said: How many consecutive GFS runs have had a hurricane in the gulf next week? Kinda nuts at this point. The consistency is impressive. But...10(+) days away, so...you know. Snow events, tropical events, same difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: I saw something similar last year and it was completely wrong lol. Haven’t seen it that often though. We’ll see if we get a CAG pattern around the 20th. It’s totally on an island now, but still kinda crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted June 10, 2023 Share Posted June 10, 2023 On 6/7/2023 at 5:43 AM, WxUSAF said: Can there please not be a cane in the Gulf in JUNE while I’m visiting Florida?? Please and thank you. Now its whacking DC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2023 Share Posted June 10, 2023 @George BM would enjoy the 18z GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 10, 2023 Share Posted June 10, 2023 37 minutes ago, yoda said: @George BM would enjoy the 18z GFS Oh GFS. If only you didn't occasionally suffer from severe CFb (convective feedback). 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 There’s always one doom run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: Now its whacking DC. Bay rider! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 "None of this is gonna happen" - Ryan Hall on these long range models. Truer words never spoken! Look how much has changed in the last runs. No different than winter storms. Rinse, wash, repeat. Hopefully we get some rain and not too much at once! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 46 minutes ago, Stormfly said: "None of this is gonna happen" - Ryan Hall on these long range models. Truer words never spoken! Look how much has changed in the last runs. No different than winter storms. Rinse, wash, repeat. Hopefully we get some rain and not too much at once! Oh yeah, definitely fantasy runs. Just have to try to watch for the broader TC genesis pattern in the last 1/3 of June. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 Maybe the Atlantic basin is starting to wake up? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 Wouldn't be surprising as we move into July. Climo starts to open up the broader basin. We're starting to see the atmosphere respond to the rapidly strengthening Nino, but as mentioned before, the outrageous warming in the tropical Atlantic ups the chances of a nontraditional (read: normal to above normal) hurricane season--which would be a tremendous feat given this ENSO period. With historic warmth across the early AEW (for the uninitiated, a tropical wave) developing, and both the GEFS and EPS are in agreement (today at least) that wind shear across the MDR will be anomalously low as we close out June. However, I think the most important factor in getting the MDR going early will be instability. Right now, that's not looking particularly high right now, but likely increases over the coming weeks. For those that will be tracking, this is my annual message that as you're looking at operational and ensemble guidance, don't look for the weenie surface depictions. If you want to get a sense of discrete windows outside of the usual 500mb stuff, look at the vorticity plots. I like starting at 850mb on operational models, and the ensemble mean MSLP for the ensembles. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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