SnowenOutThere Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Happy January! It looks like the low pressure off the Atlantic coast could become something interesting and decided now was as good as time as any to start the thread. Let’s hope we can get more luck tracking tropics than snow so far this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 Probably could make the case for a subtropical low at this point. Maybe post season review will bring it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Central pressure about 29.23" at 10am Monday. About the same as on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1615097732099710983?s=20&t=El_o5afTqNPXT-EpIT8ZKg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted April 5, 2023 Author Share Posted April 5, 2023 Gfs with a fantasy tropical thing in the Gulf of Mexico. It’s almost the time of year for us to start tracking the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said: Gfs with a fantasy tropical thing in the Gulf of Mexico. It’s almost the time of year for us to start tracking the tropics. With the El Niño seemingly brewing up fast (whatever form it's gonna take), can't imagine the forecasts for the tropics are too high, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 7 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: Gfs with a fantasy tropical thing in the Gulf of Mexico. It’s almost the time of year for us to start tracking the tropics. 5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: With the El Niño seemingly brewing up fast (whatever form it's gonna take), can't imagine the forecasts for the tropics are too high, lol Still a little early, but we’ve had a run of preseason tropical development. Western Atlantic (minus Caribbean) remain warmer than normal but sea temps are far from warm. Nino should put a lid on things but an early enough start to the season may allow for some action. Can’t believe we’re close to the season starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 Very interesting presentation from Phil on their first run at a seasonal forecast. A lot of uncertainty on the potential strength of the niño and the trend with Atlantic temperatures. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 With the way this year is going so far, we really need to cash in on some nice Tropical remnant rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 1, 2023 Share Posted May 1, 2023 One month until the start of hurricane season. We’ll see if this year continues the streak of preseason activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 With more real estate, that little spinny in the Gulf may have had a chance to develop more... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 There was never any doubt. None. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 It’s about that time, folks. Will be a while before any MDR activity, but watch for homebrew as we head toward the official start of the season. First hints of potential showing up on operational guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 Crazy amount of underwater oceanic volcanic activity it looks like 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 43 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Crazy amount of underwater oceanic volcanic activity it looks like Increasing odds of the cat 5 up the bay scenario becoming a reality? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 17, 2023 Share Posted May 17, 2023 13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Increasing odds of the cat 5 up the bay scenario becoming a reality? When one of those near-coast volcanoes pops off soon…watch out! 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted May 21, 2023 Share Posted May 21, 2023 Satellite and wind vector maps suggest a small circulation possibly developing just east of Mayaguana in The Bahamas on 5/21/23 in the morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 21, 2023 Share Posted May 21, 2023 5 hours ago, Herb@MAWS said: Satellite and wind vector maps suggest a small circulation possibly developing just east of Mayaguana in The Bahamas on 5/21/23 in the morning. Indeed. Probably not much happening with it but NHC has a 10% lemon on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 23, 2023 Share Posted May 23, 2023 Not our basin but there’s an absolute buzzsaw heading for Guam. Showing up on radar now. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 There’s a lemon on the potential low along the southeast coast, but it looks to remain non-tropical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 25, 2023 Share Posted May 25, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted May 26, 2023 Share Posted May 26, 2023 On 5/17/2023 at 12:04 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Increasing odds of the cat 5 up the bay scenario becoming a reality? Mawar’s eastern sibling loves it some Chesapeake. I see they’ve got Ophelia lined up as a name for the Atlantic. So because they’re running short of “I” names (I mean, rilly, “Idalia”?), they ought to go full Bard and put “Iago” into the rotation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 30, 2023 Share Posted May 30, 2023 It looks like for the first time in nearly a decade we won’t have a preseason storm in May. That said, the NHC has designated an area in the Gulf with a lemon for 10/20% odds of development. Environment looks marginal at best with high shear and dry air nearby, but the last two cycles of the Euro have been fairly bullish. More than usual for weak TC or STC genesis. Worth a casual eye, especially if convection can consistently fire enough to spawn a surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 Forum-wide contest for 2023 tropical seasonal count. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 The broad low in the Gulf has been designated Invest 91L. No change in development odds, unsurprisingly. Recon has been scheduled for tomorrow and Friday, though I think they’ll cancel Thursday unless there’s some modest organization overnight/early tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 A new season is upon us. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Northeastern Gulf of Mexico (AL91): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico have become a little more concentrated during the past several hours. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for some slow development over the next day or so as the system meanders over the northeastern or eastern Gulf of Mexico. However, by this weekend environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional development as the system drifts southeastward towards the Florida Peninsula. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on later today, if necessary. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which will run until November 30. The long-term averages for the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 14, 7, and 3, respectively. The list of names for 2023 is as follows: Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation -------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Arlene ar-LEEN Lee lee Bret bret Margot MAR-go Cindy SIN-dee Nigel NY-juhl Don dahn Ophelia o-FEEL-ya Emily EH-mih-lee Philippe fee-LEEP Franklin FRANK-lin Rina REE-nuh Gert gert Sean shawn Harold HAIR-uld Tammy TAM-ee Idalia ee-DAL-ya Vince vinss Jose ho-Zay Whitney WHIT-nee Katia KAH-tya This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days. The issuance times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT. After the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST. A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular Tropical Weather Outlooks. A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special advisory package may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected changes or to modify watches or warnings. NHC has the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours. For these land-threatening "potential tropical cyclones", NHC will issue the full suite of advisory and watch/warning products. Potential tropical cyclones share the naming conventions currently in place for tropical depressions, being numbered from a single list (e.g., "One", "Two", "Three", etc.). The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of significant changes in a tropical cyclone, to post or cancel watches or warnings, or to provide hourly position updates between intermediate advisories when the storm center is easily followed by radar. It is used in lieu of or to precede the issuance of a special advisory package. Tropical Cyclone Updates, which can be issued at any time, can be found under WMO header WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5. All NHC text and graphical products are available on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov. More information on NHC text and graphical products can be found at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_Product_Description.pdf. New and updated products for the 2023 season can be found at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_New_Products_Updates_2023.pdf. You can also interact with NHC on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC. Notifications are available via Twitter when select National Hurricane Center products are issued. Information about our Atlantic Twitter feed (@NHC_Atlantic) is available at https://www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.php. Forecaster Beven 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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