The “is it ever going to snow again” discussion.

[TowsonTownT]

Are there other mid/long term trends outside ENSO that could eventually swing the other way and bring us back to periodic sub 35 winters, or are we doomed to +35 winters from here on out?

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, TowsonTownT said:

Are there other mid/long term trends outside ENSO that could eventually swing the other way and bring us back to periodic sub 35 winters, or are we doomed to +35 winters from here on out?

Right now the expansion of the warmer waters in the Indian Ocean and western PAC is encouraging the MJO to be un warm phases but I read a paper that  speculated in the longer term once waters warm elsewhere the mjo could actually propagate into cold phases more. But it seems to be highly speculative and we don’t know when that would happen. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Of course I want snow. But I’m more frustrated with people who get upset and angry at me for simply stating the obvious. It’s warmer. It’s snowing less. Those are facts. Getting mad because someone says it out loud like it’s saying Voldemort and gonna conjure it into existence is stupid. 

I gather the emotional side of things kinda goes past ya...lol (correct me if I'm wrong about that) I mean I get it--some are wired more cut and dry and others more sensitive to the emotional. The news is the most unpleasant...and worse everybody already knows it! I think most already got a sense of how bad it is and being reminded of it 20x a day ain't pleasant. Won't change anything but less focus can "feel" better even if the present reality doesn't change. Can't change reality but you can change what you focus on...I'm actually amazed that it does affect ya hyperfocusing on this as much as you do--no idea how that works, lol

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I gather the emotional side of things kinda goes past ya...lol (correct me if I'm wrong about that) I mean I get it--some are wired more cut and dry and others more sensitive to the emotional. The news is the most unpleasant...and worse everybody already knows it! I think most already got a sense of how bad it is and being reminded of it 20x a day ain't pleasant. Won't change anything but less focus can "feel" better even if the present reality doesn't change. Can't change reality but you can change what you focus on...I'm actually amazed that it does affect ya hyperfocusing on this as much as you do--no idea how that works, lol

Let me try to explain what’s going on in my head if you’ll let me. I’m “focused” on analyzing the pattern in terms of our snow prospects. If the warmth keeps coming up in my analysis it’s because it’s what I continue to see as the biggest factor in our failures. Have I been wrong?  Has it been snowing?  Have I been pessimistic or just realistic?  
 

I’m not trying to only talk about the warmth but I’m also not trying to avoid anything and if warmth is the biggest factor it will continue to be my focus.  Maybe this is because I did that study of every snowstorm Baltimore has had since 1950 where I looked at the surface and upper level synoptic pattern for every single one so I have this idea in my head of what the various types of setups that should result in snow here are. And when it fails I look for what the biggest culprit was not pick apart every little imperfection because almost no setups were perfect.   If we only get snow when it’s perfect in every way it’s rarely gonna snow!  
 

Let me use an example from the last Gfs run to illustrate. Ya I know this is day 16 but it doesn’t matter I simply pulled this as an example and I didn’t feel like going back to find some real short range example so just pretend this is a 72 hour prog not 384. 

look at this…

That wave is riding west to east under a high due to some temporary confidence. It’s weakening so that’s likely going to cut and end to rain. And it would have in any period. But…it should be some snow to start given that setup. But it’s not going to be.  Look at the purple line. In my experience the precip north of that line should be snow. But it’s not. Except for the higher elevations it’s all rain until well north of our latitude. Why?  
 

Ok so here is where you COULD say any one of a thousand variables. 
*if the high was more perfectly located 

*if the storm took a more perfect track

*if there was an injection of straight Siberian vodka cold perfectly timed 

I could go on and on and on and yes all those things could have made it snow. 
 

But that’s not how I see it. That exact setup has lead to a 1-3”, or more, front end snow in our area countless times in the past. Why isn’t it there?  It’s just too warm!  It’s that simple. I’m not interested in trying to find excuses to ignore the most obvious problem. Yea if other things were more perfect it could have overcome it, I’m not saying it can’t snow anymore.  But the main reason that isn’t snow isn’t some very minor imperfection. It’s that it’s too warm and it shouldn’t be given that setup that time of year!  
 

That’s not my agenda. That’s my analysis of the situation.   When I see it repeatedly being too warm unless every little thing goes perfect in a way that is just not realistic…I think it’s pointless to even waste time of those other things. Ya sure hypothetically we could create a crazy list of 10,000 things we need to all go right to overcome the warmth but that’s just not realistic. It’s just probably not gonna snow until it consistently gets colder.  The main problem is it’s too warm. I’m just not interested in ignoring that just because it’s depressing. 

[Ji]

No psu....its never going to snow again

[Maestrobjwa]

41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This isn’t me trying to be a Deb but I honestly don’t see the 18z Gfs as the win you do.  I see a lot of the same WTF BS I’ve been taking notes for my book a lot lately.   Let me explain.  
 

First if all look at what the synoptic setup is BEFORE the run goes kinda crazy and pops out a once a decade solution. 

look ANOTHER mid latitude system with no WAA snow associated with it to the north and northeast of the system. 
 

Then it does this…

Ya ok…sure. Be honest what’s the odds that happens?  That’s a 1/10 years type anomaly there.   And even with that look at this BS 

even with an amplifying system with a once a decade anomalous cutoff upper low slowly tracking under us it’s barely cold enough with rain mixing in all through the CCB.  
 

Ya it snows.  And I can see why at a glance that looks like a W run. But what I see is it taking a ridiculous probably not gonna happen once a decade type progression to get snow and even still it’s like 4” in DC from what should be a MECS setup given the Synoptics and time of year. I don’t think that’s being pessimistic it’s just being realistic. 
 

Sure that as shown there could happen.  It’s very unlikely but not impossible.  Eventually we will luck into some crazy anomaly.   And if it does I’ll get excited at some point.  But in the larger scheme if that’s what it takes to snow we’re still screwed.  That’s the kind of crazy anomalous progression places like Raleigh NC should need to get snow not here. 
 

Sorry if that’s too much of a downer after a “good” run but that’s how I see it. 

Here's what I'm wondering...Have the tides already turned even for NE of us? I mean they've rained on setups they should snow on too. I asked if their climo would become what ours used to be...but if the coast is already warm this year...hasn't it already happened? I mean latitude hasn't been helping anybody up there (not sure where Boston is snow-wise)

I'm trying to figure out how much is this season and how much may be permanent...line is getting a bit blurry...

P.S. You and your "ya's"...lol

[pazzo83]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Here's what I'm wondering...Have the tides already turned even for NE of us? I mean they've rained on setups they should snow on too. I asked if their climo would become what ours used to be...but if the coast is already warm this year...hasn't it already happened? I mean latitude hasn't been helping anybody up there (not sure where Boston is snow-wise)

I'm trying to figure out how much is this season and how much may be permanent...line is getting a bit blurry...

P.S. You and your "ya's"...lol

I think it's flipped for NYC and Philly.  Boston prob isn't far behind given how much closer to the coast they are.

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

I think it's flipped for NYC and Philly.  Boston prob isn't far behind given how much closer to the coast they are.

If so...man that was quick! I mean just 4 years ago at least NYC could do better (and even Boston). It feels like what may have been a gradual decline just went off a dang cliff the last 3 years! I mean prior to 2020 I don't remember perfect track middle of winter rainstorms and cutter after ccutter. Yeah we had our normal fails from Miller Bs, unlucky timing (i.e. Dec 2018) and other things...but not like this. 

Of course my view could be skewed from not knowing anything about tracking until 2014 or so, but...this feels awfully sharp to me.

[pazzo83]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If so...man that was quick! I mean just 4 years ago at least NYC could do better (and even Boston). It feels like what may have been a gradual decline just went off a dang cliff the last 3 years! I mean prior to 2020 I don't remember perfect track middle of winter rainstorms and cutter after ccutter. Yeah we had our normal fails from Miller Bs, unlucky timing (i.e. Dec 2018) and other things...but not like this. 

Of course my view could be skewed from not knowing anything about tracking until 2014 or so, but...this feels awfully sharp to me.

i mean it's not linear - there will obviously be blockbuster storms and years when NYC crushes it.  It's just not gonna happen that often anymore.  Like some folks in that forum have been commenting, they probably peaked in the mid 2010s when they benefited from increased precip/bigger storms but temps hadn't risen to the point where they were having precip issues.  Now they've probably crossed that threshold.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

i mean it's not linear - there will obviously be blockbuster storms and years when NYC crushes it.  It's just not gonna happen that often anymore.  Like some folks in that forum have been commenting, they probably peaked in the mid 2010s when they benefited from increased precip/bigger storms but temps hadn't risen to the point where they were having precip issues.  Now they've probably crossed that threshold.

And those blockbuster years...I'm guessing it would have to involve another mechanism to overcome possible temp issues? Because it doesn't seem like track is enough anymore, tbh I'm trying to envision exactly how snow happens in these conditions.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And those blockbuster years...I'm guessing it would have to involve another mechanism to overcome possible temp issues? Because it doesn't seem like track is enough anymore, tbh I'm trying to envision exactly how snow happens in these conditions.

I don’t know. 99% of what I’ve done is simply pointing out what’s already happened. It’s not necessarily predictive. But obviously you can make logical inferences and deductions from the evidence. 
 

What could overcome is if we get a year with a predominant flow off the arctic instead of the pacific.  It’s just that we used to be able to snow in marginal setups with a mix of air masses. Lately we need fresh polar air. if that is the new reality it will severely limit our opportunities but we will get years with a more favorable longwave pattern to inject arctic air. This year isn’t it. 

[Met1985]

Good luck to the Mid Atlantic crew. May yall see some snow soon.

[michsnowfreak]

On 2/4/2023 at 2:21 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

Anywhere else around the country seen a decline in snow climo? (Anybody see an increase? Lol)

Stumbled upon this thread as a snow weenie lol.

Seasonal snowfall in much of the Great Lakes is increasing. It is most pronounced in the snowbelts but even outside of the snow belts... the 2010s  were the snowiest decade on record for Detroit dating to the 1870s.  9 of the 16 snowiest winters have occurred since 2003, including the snowiest winter on record (2013-14).

Average snowfall so far for the 21st century is 47", compared to just 40" in the 20th century. The average amount of days annually with 1" or more of snow on the ground in the 21st century is 51 compared to 50 in the 20th century. So essentially, we are averaging several more inches of snowfall but staying steady with days with snow on the ground. 

Im not the stat expert on other Midwest cities, but I can concur that many in the Great Lakes have their snowiest Winter's list peppered with years from the 2000s-2010s.

Like seemingly everybody else, this is a down season here. To date DTW is at 19.3". Should this continue through April it would be a below average snow season. But only 3 of the past 10 winters have featured below average snowfall. 

Since we are a more northern latitude, patterns play just as big if not a bigger role than actual temperature deviations in terms of how much snow falls. I understand the frustration down there, but I wouldn't be writing off snow because of a few down years, especially and you're more "feast-or-famine" climate.

[Hoosier]

15 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Stumbled upon this thread as a snow weenie lol.

Seasonal snowfall in much of the Great Lakes is increasing. It is most pronounced in the snowbelts but even outside of the snow belts... the 2010s  were the snowiest decade on record for Detroit dating to the 1870s.  9 of the 16 snowiest winters have occurred since 2003, including the snowiest winter on record (2013-14).

Average snowfall so far for the 21st century is 47", compared to just 40" in the 20th century. The average amount of days annually with 1" or more of snow on the ground in the 21st century is 51 compared to 50 in the 20th century. So essentially, we are averaging several more inches of snowfall but staying steady with days with snow on the ground. 

Im not the stat expert on other Midwest cities, but I can concur that many in the Great Lakes have their snowiest Winter's list peppered with years from the 2000s-2010s.

Like seemingly everybody else, this is a down season here. To date DTW is at 19.3". Should this continue through April it would be a below average snow season. But only 3 of the past 10 winters have featured below average snowfall. 

Since we are a more northern latitude, patterns play just as big if not a bigger role than actual temperature deviations in terms of how much snow falls. I understand the frustration down there, but I wouldn't be writing off snow because of a few down years, especially and you're more "feast-or-famine" climate.

I can't say for sure, but I don't recall seeing any big losses in/around the Great Lakes on the 1991-2020 snowfall averages vs 1981-2010.  Some places gained a little and some places lost a little.  Chicago's average snowfall went up by about 2" on the 1991-2020 average, without a meaningful location change as the official observations have been taken at O'Hare Airport since 1980 (though exact observation site has moved around on the grounds of O'Hare over the years).

You're right that a good deal of our subforum can get away with warmth more easily and still receive okay, if not good amounts of snowfall.  We just saw an example of that in January this year when a number of places (Detroit included) put up a torch January and were near to even a bit snowier than average. 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I can't say for sure, but I don't recall seeing any big losses in/around the Great Lakes on the 1991-2020 snowfall averages vs 1981-2010.  Some places gained a little and some places lost a little.  Chicago's average snowfall went up by about 2" on the 1991-2020 average, without a meaningful location change as the official observations have been taken at O'Hare Airport since 1980 (though exact observation site has moved around on the grounds of O'Hare over the years).

You're right that a good deal of our subforum can get away with warmth more easily and still receive okay, if not good amounts of snowfall.  We just saw an example of that in January this year when a number of places (Detroit included) put up a torch January and were near to even a bit snowier than average. 

Detroit's latest average went up about 2" as well. 

A sub-climo Winter is frustrating to any snow weenie whether they average 5" or 105". 

But sucky winters are going to happen, especially after snow records toppled like dominoes 2005-2015). Even since things have tamed down since that stretch, the past 5-7 years have been pretty average snow wise. When you look at the big picture, it's definitely not snowing less than it used to in our region. Which is why I wonder if it really is snowing less in the mid Atlantic or if it's just a bad stretch with no big storms (assuming big storms make up majority of their snow).

[TimB]

On 2/4/2023 at 2:26 PM, SnowenOutThere said:

If we keep up the current present upward trend in our temperatures for whatever reason moving to the NE will only get you so far for so long.

We know why it’s warmer, unfortunately we can’t say why on this forum. 

Of course it’s climate change, don’t be afraid to talk about science on a science forum, kid. What can they do, ban you? Imagine the optics of that.

[Hoosier]

19 minutes ago, TimB said:

Of course it’s climate change, don’t be afraid to talk about science on a science forum, kid. What can they do, ban you? Imagine the optics of that.

On that subject, the CC forum has been a hoot lately.

[paulythegun]

Detroit's latest average went up about 2" as well. 
A sub-climo Winter is frustrating to any snow weenie whether they average 5" or 105". 
But sucky winters are going to happen, especially after snow records toppled like dominoes 2005-2015). Even since things have tamed down since that stretch, the past 5-7 years have been pretty average snow wise. When you look at the big picture, it's definitely not snowing less than it used to in our region. Which is why I wonder if it really is snowing less in the mid Atlantic or if it's just a bad stretch with no big storms (assuming big storms make up majority of their snow).

Warmer lakes frozen for fewer days = more snow for lake-adjacent areas.

Warmer east coast SST means fewer early season snowstorms for the Mid-Atlantic coastal plains

[michsnowfreak]

12 hours ago, TimB said:

Of course it’s climate change, don’t be afraid to talk about science on a science forum, kid. What can they do, ban you? Imagine the optics of that.

Very few people would move just for the weather, but if you actually did move North you'd be fine. Warming is less pronounced away from the ocean. 

Here is the average Winter temperature per decade over the last 100 years for DC, Detroit, & NYC. The temperature rise at Detroit, especially if you take out the cold period 1960s-80s, is minimal. Even DC/NYC are on par with where they were in the 1990s.

............DCA...DTW...NYC
1920s- 36.3 - 26.7 - 32.5
1930s- 37.9 - 28.1 - 34.4
1940s- 36.7 - 27.0 - 32.9
1950s- 38.6 - 28.5 - 35.3
1960s- 35.6 - 26.5 - 33.2
1970s- 37.7 - 24.6 - 33.3
1980s- 37.7 - 26.3 - 34.9
1990s- 39.3 - 28.7 - 36.4
2000s- 38.4 - 27.8 - 35.5
2010s- 39.8 - 28.2 - 36.1

[mattie g]

12 hours ago, TimB said:

Of course it’s climate change, don’t be afraid to talk about science on a science forum, kid. What can they do, ban you? Imagine the optics of that.

Science forum?

[Maestrobjwa]

48 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Science forum?

This isn't a real science forum--it just plays one on TV 

[North Balti Zen]

13 hours ago, TimB said:

Of course it’s climate change, don’t be afraid to talk about science on a science forum, kid. What can they do, ban you? Imagine the optics of that.

you don't know the history here. The reason the mods and Randy have asked to keep it out of the long range threads is inevitably people want to argue about whether climate change is happening and the cause and it derails conversations about the weather in those threads.  There is this whole thread where it can be discussed, and an entire sub-part of this board devoted that discussion. No one is keeping the science out. Have at it!  But asking that the long range threads not be derailed as they repeatedly have been is not unreasonable. 

[mappy]

38 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

you don't know the history here. The reason the mods and Randy have asked to keep it out of the long range threads is inevitably people want to argue about whether climate change is happening and the cause and it derails conversations about the weather in those threads.  There is this whole thread where it can be discussed, and an entire sub-part of this board devoted that discussion. No one is keeping the science out. Have at it!  But asking that the long range threads not be derailed as they repeatedly have been is not unreasonable. 

you should just ignore Tim, he's trolling our subforum. 

[North Balti Zen]

ah, thanks. 

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Very few people would move just for the weather, but if you actually did move North you'd be fine. Warming is less pronounced away from the ocean. 

Here is the average Winter temperature per decade over the last 100 years for DC, Detroit, & NYC. The temperature rise at Detroit, especially if you take out the cold period 1960s-80s, is minimal. Even DC/NYC are on par with where they were in the 1990s.

............DCA...DTW...NYC
1920s- 36.3 - 26.7 - 32.5
1930s- 37.9 - 28.1 - 34.4
1940s- 36.7 - 27.0 - 32.9
1950s- 38.6 - 28.5 - 35.3
1960s- 35.6 - 26.5 - 33.2
1970s- 37.7 - 24.6 - 33.3
1980s- 37.7 - 26.3 - 34.9
1990s- 39.3 - 28.7 - 36.4
2000s- 38.4 - 27.8 - 35.5
2010s- 39.8 - 28.2 - 36.1

Though for DC, the place that can least afford a rise, the 2010s are the warmest on that list.

[TimB]

Not trolling, just encouraging a young weather enthusiast not to be afraid to share his thoughts regarding a scientific topic that heavily affects his favorite type of weather.

[michsnowfreak]

20 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Though for DC, the place that can least afford a rise, the 2010s are the warmest on that list.

That is true. I guess I'm just not seeing any sharp difference that would suddenly lead to snow to just shut off. I mean I have no horse in this race so I don't care, but I just have a feeling it's a lot of bad luck and DC is bound to get slammed one of these years soon. It apparently had no problem snowing in years past in what you or i would consider an inferno winter. An average DC Winter in the cold 1970s would be the warmest Winter on record for Detroit or Chicago. Everything's relative. 

[pazzo83]

8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

That is true. I guess I'm just not seeing any sharp difference that would suddenly lead to snow to just shut off. I mean I have no horse in this race so I don't care, but I just have a feeling it's a lot of bad luck and DC is bound to get slammed one of these years soon. It apparently had no problem snowing in years past in what you or i would consider an inferno winter. An average DC Winter in the cold 1970s would be the warmest Winter on record for Detroit or Chicago. Everything's relative. 

an increase of just 1 or 2 degrees in the mean can mean a huge difference for the actual effects of such a change.

[North Balti Zen]

25 minutes ago, TimB said:

Not trolling, just encouraging a young weather enthusiast not to be afraid to share his thoughts regarding a scientific topic that heavily affects his favorite type of weather.

he can share those thoughts to his hearts content in this thread or in the part of the board set aside for that.  Again, that's not a difficult request to adhere to. 

[Hoosier]

34 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

That is true. I guess I'm just not seeing any sharp difference that would suddenly lead to snow to just shut off. I mean I have no horse in this race so I don't care, but I just have a feeling it's a lot of bad luck and DC is bound to get slammed one of these years soon. It apparently had no problem snowing in years past in what you or i would consider an inferno winter. An average DC Winter in the cold 1970s would be the warmest Winter on record for Detroit or Chicago. Everything's relative. 

I can buy the bad luck argument up to a point.  That's probably a factor to some degree but if DC's averages stay where they are or rise, it just keeps tipping the odds in the wrong direction.  I'm sure they will have seasons in the future where they come in at or above average for snowfall, because they can get it all in just 1 storm.