The “is it ever going to snow again” discussion.

[WxUSAF]

40 minutes ago, Wxdood said:

So Delete my comment but leave the others discussing it. Appreciate it. 

Yes. Is reading comprehension tough for you?

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yes. Is reading comprehension tough for you?

Raises hand:  Oh OH OH I know this one 

[kgottwald]

20 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Here is a chart with a lot of information if you want it, https://xkcd.com/1732/

Makes me wonder how common snow was at the site of DC in the decades surrounding 5000 BC.

[RevWarReenactor]

I am starting to get interested in next weekend for a upstate NY/Vermont chase. Once you resign yourself to assuming this is eastern North Carolina climo and look towards the chase; things become much less stressful in life.

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now in terms WAA precip...I mean we did get snow from that just two years ago, right? Of course it benefited the western half of the forum more because of where the banding set up, but if it worked just two years ago...hopefully that part isn't broken, lol

I have no idea what storm you're referencing but I never said we can't get WAA snowfall anymore.  That better not be true.  But this game is about probabilities.  Snowfall was never a "normal" high probability event around here.  It an anomaly.  But there is a difference between something being a 10-1 shot and a 100-1 shot. 

The right way to think about this is death by a million paper cuts.  Decembers have been trending warmer and less snowy for a while...does the fact its not snowing in December recently mean we can't get snow.  No.  But it could mean we get less.   Recently there has been a plethora of waves without any WAA snowfall associated with them.  Does that mean we can't get WAA snow no, but maybe we get a little less.  Recently we've had some -NAO's fail to work.  Does that mean a -NAO can't work...no but maybe they work a little less.  But what is the net impact on our snowfall probabilities when you start adding all those things together?  If you keep losing on the margins in several different places...the margins start to add up.  

[dallen7908]

To get a better understanding of how the circulation might change in a climate check out this review paper.  Good graphics. 

Models predict more El Niño-like weather but observations disagree. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00301-2

On the future zonal contrasts of equatorial Pacific climate: Perspectives from Observations, Simulations, and Theories

[Maestrobjwa]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I have no idea what storm you're referencing but I never said we can't get WAA snowfall anymore.  That better not be true.  But this game is about probabilities.  Snowfall was never a "normal" high probability event around here.  It an anomaly.  But there is a difference between something being a 10-1 shot and a 100-1 shot. 

The right way to think about this is death by a million paper cuts.  Decembers have been trending warmer and less snowy for a while...does the fact its not snowing in December recently mean we can't get snow.  No.  But it could mean we get less.   Recently there has been a plethora of waves without any WAA snowfall associated with them.  Does that mean we can't get WAA snow no, but maybe we get a little less.  Recently we've had some -NAO's fail to work.  Does that mean a -NAO can't work...no but maybe they work a little less.  But what is the net impact on our snowfall probabilities when you start adding all those things together?  If you keep losing on the margins in several different places...the margins start to add up.  

There a lotttt of maybes, lol Now...we went almost a decade with little to no -NAO. So we had one in 2018 that worked great...except it was in March. Then 2021--I feel like that one could be a logbook candidate. Yes it was a Nina, but no clue why it didn't work. Then we had what happened in December.

So that's three examples with -NAO...one worked, two didn't. Sample size too small?...

[psuhoffman]

28 minutes ago, Ji said:

because we are still in a shitty pattern. This is like an oasis in a desert type thing

 

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That's my thinking too...Give me a winter where we aren't AN temps most days...think that would be a better test case to see where we are. Sure in the past we could've overcome that, but the net result would be a few more inches, and rarely would we get over our median amount in such winters. Although...I would like to see a comparison of this winter's temp profile with previous ones that may have snowed more.

But what is making that specific setup on the GFS "shitty"?  Look at the pattern on the 12z GFS... it isn't shitty

This is the setup to the storm

Look at the flow over the top of our storm Y as the lead wave X slides by.  That is air right off the Yukon, PC air being directly discharged into our source region for the storm.  Look at the ridge along the pac coast.  This isn't a pac puke pattern.  There is nothing wrong with this pattern.  

Now as the storm crosses the MS valley...this is pretty damn good

Nice PNA ridge, direct flow off the arctic, SW taking a perfect track... the only thing "shitty" about this setup is the temps.  

@Maestrobjwa you say we need to wait for a winter when its actually cold...when the fuck is that anymore?  That happens like once every 5 years or less lately.  Plus that is like saying... we can only judge if it can be cold enough when its cold enough.  I am not arguing it can NEVER get cold and snow.  I am arguing it is getting cold and snowing LESS.  Saying "we can't judge that because its warm all the time" is kinda...well... you explain that logic to me because I don't see it.  

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

@Maestrobjwa you say we need to wait for a winter when its actually cold...when the fuck is that anymore?  That happens like once every 5 years or less lately.  Plus that is like saying... we can only judge if it can be cold enough when its cold enough.  I am not arguing it can NEVER get cold and snow.  I am arguing it is getting cold and snowing LESS.  Saying "we can't judge that because its warm all the time" is kinda...well... you explain that logic to me because I don't see it.  

I'd like to see the temp profile of the last 7 years to see what You mean. To me it's just been the last 3 years or so that have been AN, but maybe that's just perception. I mean 2018 December was cold enough for NC to get snow, Jan 2019 DC got a foot...so it doesn't seem like the warm really started until 2020. But again, I'd like to see the temp data on everything since 2015-16.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

There a lotttt of maybes, lol Now...we went almost a decade with little to no -NAO. So we had one in 2018 that worked great...except it was in March. Then 2021--I feel like that one could be a logbook candidate. Yes it was a Nina, but no clue why it didn't work. Then we had what happened in December.

So that's three examples with -NAO...one worked, two didn't. Sample size too small?

You're playing devils advocate, and that is fine, but I could retort that also with this... did 2018 really work?  The NAO flipped severely negative the last week of February.  Then we got a perfect track rainstorm the first week of March because it was just...take a guess...to warm!  The next storm trended north and hit NJ and New England.  Then finally we got that 3rd storm...but we lost the first half of the storm, the WAA, to rain even with an absolutely perfect track.  Yes it was late March by then but I dunno... that's kinda convenient because we had a perfect track rainstorm early in the month also and it's impossible to test how much of that was because it was March 20th or not.  I am sure the result would have been better had it been a few weeks earlier, I am not arguing that...but would it have been the 20" storm it should have been with that track?  I am not exaggerating the analogs to that storm were a bunch of HECS events.   Dunno... maybe it still would have been muted by mixed precip some.   So in a month we had one of the most prolific blocks in recent history the area got like 4-8".  Yea it was March but some of the historical analogs to that month like March 58 and March 60 the area had 20" plus.  So was that really a W?  If we got 6" from a pattern that produced 20" in the past is that really a W for the "its not getting worse" argument?  

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nice PNA ridge, direct flow off the arctic, SW taking a perfect track... the only thing "shitty" about this setup is the temps.  

Welp...overall I will say that if this is a snapshot of things to come, it's not just our climo that's in trouble...but the entire east coast even to Boston/SNE, right? I mean this model run tries to mix even them, lol That feels like an awfully quick flip of the switch...I mean you wouldn't see this even 3-4 years ago.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Welp...overall I will say that if this is a snapshot of things to come, it's not just our climo that's in trouble...but the entire east coast even to Boston/SNE, right? I mean this model run tries to mix even them, lol That feels like an awfully quick flip of the switch...I mean you wouldn't see this even 3-4 years ago.

Boston can struggle with a coastal track.  They flipped to rain with January 2000.  That is due to their further east coastal location.  Don't get me wrong...they have WAY more win scenarios than we do, but a tucked in up the coast track can actually be one of the few situations where our area is in a better location than Boston.   

[psuhoffman]

@Maestrobjwa you could be right.  We don't have anything conclusive yet.  But I see a lot of bad signs and the longer we go without getting a sustained snowier period...not just one storm or one season, but a longer term cycle where we return to what used to be normal, the most the evidence we've permanently declined builds up.  

[Wxdood]

On 2/2/2023 at 1:24 PM, WxUSAF said:

Yes. Is reading comprehension tough for you?

Way to come off like an ass. I have been very appreciative of people responding to me and I haven’t said anything bad toward anyone. Cute take. 

[pazzo83]

7 minutes ago, Wxdood said:

Way to come off like an ass. I have been very appreciative of people responding to me and I haven’t said anything bad toward anyone. Cute take. 

Dude with 96 posts here - not sure if this is the approach I would use to interact with other folks on here.

[Wxdood]

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

Dude with 96 posts here - not sure if this is the approach I would use to interact with other folks on here.

Neither is asking if reading comprehension is hard to me. Shouldn’t matter how many posts one has to either be nice or be not nice. 

[pazzo83]

3 minutes ago, Wxdood said:

Neither is asking if reading comprehension is hard to me. Shouldn’t matter how many posts one has to either be nice or be not nice. 

I mean you were the one who commented with the childish "oh so you're gonna delete my posts but not other ones" nonsense.  Grow up.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

On 1/15/2023 at 12:26 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

We’ll get our first (and only) event this year in the second half of March, amidst all the hand-wringing over sun angle and slop accumulation. Remember this post- I make forecasts YOU can trust. 

I’m calling early thread rights for any snowstorm here from March 16-31. Now’s the time to get in early, during the capitulation phase. 

[psuhoffman]

22 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'd like to see the temp profile of the last 7 years to see what You mean. To me it's just been the last 3 years or so that have been AN, but maybe that's just perception. I mean 2018 December was cold enough for NC to get snow, Jan 2019 DC got a foot...so it doesn't seem like the warm really started until 2020. But again, I'd like to see the temp data on everything since 2015-16.

BTW let me preface that I enjoy the conversation, I am not trying to be antagonistic, just presenting the evidence as I see it.  But before I get into the numbers...keep in mind "average" doesn't matter because average temps aren't good enough here.  When your coldest avg high is 10 degrees above freezing...a season that is "average temps" is still not likely to be very snowy here.  We need a below average temp season.  But lets simply look at temps overall.

If you go back to 1960 Baltimore has had 21 winters with more than 20" of snowfall.  All but 4 of them the average winter temp was below 35 degrees.  The 4 seasons with seasonal temps above 35 all had an HECS storm.  In other words...the only way we can possibly overcome a season with temps above 35 and still get a lot of snow would be to get very lucky with a fluke HECS storm.  2016 was the most recent example of this.  But for the most part...81% of our snowy seasons in Baltimore come with an avg winter temp of below 35 degrees.  Getting a 20" snowfall season with a temp above 35 from a fluke HECS storm is a 1 in 16 year anomaly.  Yes it will happen, and someday that will happen again...but we are NEVER going to get consistent snowfall that way.  That is a fluke.  Always has been.  

So what have our avg winter temps been the last 8 years...

2016: 39.4

2017: 40.5

2018: 36.4

2019: 37

2020: 40.7

2021: 37.3

2022: 39.3

and with a month to go we are near 40 for this winter.  

So...over the last 8 years we simply haven't been cold enough at all at any point during that stretch to have a realistic chance at a snowy winter unless we simply got lucky with a HECS.  And that did happen one time during that stretch so considering that is a 1/15 shot we actually got LUCKY during this period compared to temps.  We have had 1 snowy season out of the 8 when in reality based on temps we should have had NONE.  

This is really simple...its odds, math, probabilities and statistics.  Yes within the averages we will have weeks here and there when its cold enough and once in a while you will get lucky and get some snow.  But the longer term data tells us unless your season is below 35 degrees as a whole...we don't get a snowy season unless we get one huge fluke storm.  And that is rare.  So our path to a snowy season is simple...get temps below 35.  Now that doesn't guarantee us snow.   But here are the numbers since 1960.

In seasons where Baltimore's winter temps are below 35 degrees we have a 61% chance of 20" of snow.

In seasons where Baltimore's winter temps are above 35 its an 11% chance.  

From 1960 to 2015 our winter temp was below 35 degrees 50% of the time.  Since we have had 8 straight years with temps above 35.  

That seems pretty clear to me.  And the fact we have had NO SEASONS below 35 in the last 8 straight also seems to be a pretty clear reason we aren't getting much snow.  This isn't complicated.  It's just too warm!  And it has been for 8 years running.  Every single year! 

 

 

 

 

[CAPE]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

BTW let me preface that I enjoy the conversation, I am not trying to be antagonistic, just presenting the evidence as I see it.  But before I get into the numbers...keep in mind "average" doesn't matter because average temps aren't good enough here.  When your coldest avg high is 10 degrees above freezing...a season that is "average temps" is still not likely to be very snowy here.  We need a below average temp season.  But lets simply look at temps overall.

If you go back to 1960 Baltimore has had 21 winters with more than 20" of snowfall.  All but 4 of them the average winter temp was below 35 degrees.  The 4 seasons with seasonal temps above 35 all had an HECS storm.  In other words...the only way we can possibly overcome a season with temps above 35 and still get a lot of snow would be to get very lucky with a fluke HECS storm.  2016 was the most recent example of this.  But for the most part...81% of our snowy seasons in Baltimore come with an avg winter temp of below 35 degrees.  Getting a 20" snowfall season with a temp above 35 from a fluke HECS storm is a 1 in 16 year anomaly.  Yes it will happen, and someday that will happen again...but we are NEVER going to get consistent snowfall that way.  That is a fluke.  Always has been.  

So what have our avg winter temps been the last 8 years...

2016: 39.4

2017: 40.5

2018: 36.4

2019: 37

2020: 40.7

2021: 37.3

2022: 39.3

and with a month to go we are near 40 for this winter.  

So...over the last 8 years we simply haven't been cold enough at all at any point during that stretch to have a realistic chance at a snowy winter unless we simply got lucky with a HECS.  And that did happen one time during that stretch so considering that is a 1/15 shot we actually got LUCKY during this period compared to temps.  We have had 1 snowy season out of the 8 when in reality based on temps we should have had NONE.  

This is really simple...its odds, math, probabilities and statistics.  Yes within the averages we will have weeks here and there when its cold enough and once in a while you will get lucky and get some snow.  But the longer term data tells us unless your season is below 35 degrees as a whole...we don't get a snowy season unless we get one huge fluke storm.  And that is rare.  So our path to a snowy season is simple...get temps below 35.  Now that doesn't guarantee us snow.   But here are the numbers since 1960.

In seasons where Baltimore's winter temps are below 35 degrees we have a 61% chance of 20" of snow.

In seasons where Baltimore's winter temps are above 35 its an 11% chance.  

From 1960 to 2015 our winter temp was below 35 degrees 50% of the time.  Since we have had 8 straight years with temps above 35.  

That seems pretty clear to me.  And the fact we have had NO SEASONS below 35 in the last 8 straight also seems to be a pretty clear reason we aren't getting much snow.  This isn't complicated.  It's just too warm!  And it has been for 8 years running.  Every single year! 

 

 

 

 

Inherently there is little margin for warming at our latitude to still get snow. Central/N NE are warmer too, but still pretty snowy. If this is the new normal for awhile, might be time to move for those who can't be content with a couple decent snow years per decade.

[Maestrobjwa]

38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

BTW let me preface that I enjoy the conversation, I am not trying to be antagonistic, just presenting the evidence as I see it.  But before I get into the numbers...keep in mind "average" doesn't matter because average temps aren't good enough here.  When your coldest avg high is 10 degrees above freezing...a season that is "average temps" is still not likely to be very snowy here.  We need a below average temp season.  But lets simply look at temps overall.

If you go back to 1960 Baltimore has had 21 winters with more than 20" of snowfall.  All but 4 of them the average winter temp was below 35 degrees.  The 4 seasons with seasonal temps above 35 all had an HECS storm.  In other words...the only way we can possibly overcome a season with temps above 35 and still get a lot of snow would be to get very lucky with a fluke HECS storm.  2016 was the most recent example of this.  But for the most part...81% of our snowy seasons in Baltimore come with an avg winter temp of below 35 degrees.  Getting a 20" snowfall season with a temp above 35 from a fluke HECS storm is a 1 in 16 year anomaly.  Yes it will happen, and someday that will happen again...but we are NEVER going to get consistent snowfall that way.  That is a fluke.  Always has been.  

So what have our avg winter temps been the last 8 years...

2016: 39.4

2017: 40.5

2018: 36.4

2019: 37

2020: 40.7

2021: 37.3

2022: 39.3

and with a month to go we are near 40 for this winter.  

So...over the last 8 years we simply haven't been cold enough at all at any point during that stretch to have a realistic chance at a snowy winter unless we simply got lucky with a HECS.  And that did happen one time during that stretch so considering that is a 1/15 shot we actually got LUCKY during this period compared to temps.  We have had 1 snowy season out of the 8 when in reality based on temps we should have had NONE.  

This is really simple...its odds, math, probabilities and statistics.  Yes within the averages we will have weeks here and there when its cold enough and once in a while you will get lucky and get some snow.  But the longer term data tells us unless your season is below 35 degrees as a whole...we don't get a snowy season unless we get one huge fluke storm.  And that is rare.  So our path to a snowy season is simple...get temps below 35.  Now that doesn't guarantee us snow.   But here are the numbers since 1960.

In seasons where Baltimore's winter temps are below 35 degrees we have a 61% chance of 20" of snow.

In seasons where Baltimore's winter temps are above 35 its an 11% chance.  

From 1960 to 2015 our winter temp was below 35 degrees 50% of the time.  Since we have had 8 straight years with temps above 35.  

That seems pretty clear to me.  And the fact we have had NO SEASONS below 35 in the last 8 straight also seems to be a pretty clear reason we aren't getting much snow.  This isn't complicated.  It's just too warm!  And it has been for 8 years running.  Every single year! 

 

 

 

 

Annnnd we don't know why it's warmer unless it's CC...I mean if that's the case we're gonna have to just adjust to it (I think we will over time as this may become the norm and it'll be more like the south, lol). At least we'll know what to expect. It just may not be able to do what it used to. Now if we do finally get a 35 winter again then we can talk

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Inherently there is little margin for warming at our latitude to still get snow. Central/N NE are warmer too, but still pretty snowy. If this is the new normal for awhile, might be time to move for those who can't be content with a couple decent snow years per decade.

I wonder where even they will be in another 8-10 years if this is the new normal...will they be us from before 2016? Lol

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Inherently there is little margin for warming at our latitude to still get snow. Central/N NE are warmer too, but still pretty snowy. If this is the new normal for awhile, might be time to move for those who can't be content with a couple decent snow years per decade.

That’s pretty much where I am. And I’m mostly at peace with it. Someday I will move. Until then I’m resigned to the reality. Im just observing the obvious here. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Anywhere else around the country seen a decline in snow climo? (Anybody see an increase? Lol)

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s pretty much where I am. And I’m mostly at peace with it. Someday I will move. Until then I’m resigned to the reality. Im just observing the obvious here. 

Are you like...resigned but frustrated at the same time?

[Maestrobjwa]

And I don't know...maybe it's because I'm in no position to move (and that things more important than snow keep me here), but I find the suggestion slightly annoying. It's like implying everybody can just pick up and move regardless of means, position, family, etc...just doesn't quite work like that for everybody.

But again...I could just be projecting so don't mind me, lol

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Inherently there is little margin for warming at our latitude to still get snow. Central/N NE are warmer too, but still pretty snowy. If this is the new normal for awhile, might be time to move for those who can't be content with a couple decent snow years per decade.

If we keep up the current present upward trend in our temperatures for whatever reason moving to the NE will only get you so far for so long.

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Annnnd we don't know why it's warmer unless it's CC...I mean if that's the case we're gonna have to just adjust to it (I think we will over time as this may become the norm and it'll be more like the south, lol). At least we'll know what to expect. It just may not be able to do what it used to. Now if we do finally get a 35 winter again then we can talk

We know why it’s warmer, unfortunately we can’t say why on this forum. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

If we keep up the current present upward trend in our temperatures for whatever reason moving to the NE will only get you so far for so long.

We know why it’s warmer, unfortunately we can’t say why on this forum. 

I think there's more leeway to say it in here...just not in the main thread.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Annnnd we don't know why it's warmer unless it's CC...I mean if that's the case we're gonna have to just adjust to it (I think we will over time as this may become the norm and it'll be more like the south, lol). At least we'll know what to expect. It just may not be able to do what it used to. Now if we do finally get a 35 winter again then we can talk

The problem is for us to resume what used to be “normal” snowfall we don’t just need to get a sub 35* winter once in a blue moon. Remember we only got 20”+ (and 20” used to be normal!!!) 60% of the time in a sub 35” winter. For the math to work out we need sub 35* winters to happen ~50% of the time like they used too.  If we only get a sub 35* winter 25% of the time going forward our snow climo will be severely diminished. 

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I wonder where even they will be in another 8-10 years...will they be us from before 2016? Lol

Short answer yes.  If temps continue to warm eventually their climo will become what ours was.   But I can’t predict the future. I am simply stating observations of what has already happened. 
 

Bit if you made a N American map with a “winter existed north of this line this year” by say combining stats like where was it below 36* and had at least 10”, you would see that while that line has variance each year overall the “no winter south of this” line is trending north.  It’s also trending up in elevation. Lower elevation ski resorts are increasingly struggling with temps and rain. If that trend was to continue yes their fate is eventually the same as ours.

 

Just delayed but not denied.
JB would be proud. 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Anywhere else around the country seen a decline in snow climo? (Anybody see an increase? Lol)

The down trend in snow is affecting places that were marginal to begin with the most. This is obvious and logical. Places that could least afford to lose any margins are the first to fall. Lower elevation ski resorts that aren’t far enough north for example. DC for example. 
 

But also the impact of warming isn’t happening uniformly. I think we’re in a worse spot because several of the impacts all have a greater effect on our location due to our low elevation and our  geographic location in relation to the pacific and Atlantic.  Things like the indo pac warm pool and the expanding pac Hadley cell and the warning gulf are all placing us under a prevalent ridge. 
 

Warming can also cause more snow in some places where they are still cold enough but the warning is increasing precip. Unfortunately that’s not our situation. 

10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Are you like...resigned but frustrated at the same time?

Of course I want snow. But I’m more frustrated with people who get upset and angry at me for simply stating the obvious. It’s warmer. It’s snowing less. Those are facts. Getting mad because someone says it out loud like it’s saying Voldemort and gonna conjure it into existence is stupid. 

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

If we keep up the current present upward trend in our temperatures for whatever reason moving to the NE will only get you so far for so long.

We know why it’s warmer, unfortunately we can’t say why on this forum. 

I don’t think snow will be eradicated completely in our lifetime. You just have to be smart. I think Phineas is safe where he moved next to Mount Washington. Higher elevations in New England will still get a lot of snow. Maybe in our lifetime a place like that goes from 150” avg to 120” but that’s still a lot of snow by our standards lol.