chris21 Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 12 hours ago, psuhoffman said: The good news is it can’t be worse! Im skeptical how much it will help myself. But at least then we will know. If we get a modoki Nino and Baltimore gets 7” or something, after the last 7 years also, we know the party’s over and it’s time to just move on. This is simply the new normal. My guess though is that better is still better. The question is how much better. But I do think we are still capable of 20”+ seasons. But the bad years will likely continue to be so bad that the decades of Baltimore averaging close to 20” are probably out of reach. Hence why I’m moving to the area to the area around Banner Elk, NC next year. We’ve always loved the area and the climate is far more to my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 13 hours ago, Terpeast said: Yep, and we will see another KU HECS here. But they won’t be every 3-7 years like from ‘79 through ‘16 anymore. Maybe more like once a decade. Twice if lucky. 15-16 felt like a preview into what "good" winters of the future will look like. Perhaps a 1 month stretch of BN temperatures, even sharp but brief cold shots like with what happened during Presidents' Day Weekend, but in the aggregate, an AN temperature winter with AN snowfall, hoisted up by 1-2 major snowfalls and very few of our bread and butter marginal events. Even just looking back at our recent 7 year snow drought, our "snowier" winters of the bunch have really only been snowy months, a 30 day or so stretch that was just cold enough to support a few decent snowfalls. January 2022 and 2019 come to mind when thinking of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 Sun angle is now 32.6 degrees. The light at the end of the tunnel is a locomotive headlight. But we could still get a 966mb low over the Potomac on the second week of March, right? Legit tropical storm winds and sleet it is! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormfly said: Sun angle is now 32.6 degrees. The light at the end of the tunnel is a locomotive headlight. But we could still get a 966mb low over the Potomac on the second week of March, right? Legit tropical storm winds and sleet it is! That'd be pretty cool actually. Lets do it! Sorry, @mappy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 4 hours ago, chris21 said: Hence why I’m moving to the area to the area around Banner Elk, NC next year. We’ve always loved the area and the climate is far more to my liking. My wife inherited a home in Boone. We're starting to remodel it. Couple of weekends back we were up there and took the kids sledding up on Beech Mountain. Had to go through Banner Elk and there was 4-5" of snow on the ground. Once we got up to Beech it was close to 10". Winds were gusting over 30 mph and the temp was 17. True blizzard. Elevation really makes a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 9 hours ago, FallsLake said: My wife inherited a home in Boone. We're starting to remodel it. Couple of weekends back we were up there and took the kids sledding up on Beech Mountain. Had to go through Banner Elk and there was 4-5" of snow on the ground. Once we got up to Beech it was close to 10". Winds were gusting over 30 mph and the temp was 17. True blizzard. Elevation really makes a difference. the high elevations of NC basically have a similar climate to areas hundreds of miles to the north. It's wild. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2023 Author Share Posted January 30, 2023 9 hours ago, pazzo83 said: the high elevations of NC basically have a similar climate to areas hundreds of miles to the north. It's wild. In the eastern US every 1000 ft of elevation equates to about 2 degrees of latitude in terms of climate. My climate at 1100 ft is closer to sea level places in southern New England. Snowshoe at 4800 ft in WV is closer to sea level at 44-45 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2023 Author Share Posted January 30, 2023 OMFG apparently this has been going on for a while but I just found out...JB has now fully conceded its warming BUT is blaming it on geothermal activity in the oceans, without any evidence and despite the fact the heat content of the ocean is increasing the most closest to the surface! He is getting roasted. What happened that he turned himself into a whole clown. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: OMFG apparently this has been going on for a while but I just found out...JB has now fully conceded its warming BUT is blaming it on geothermal activity in the oceans, without any evidence and despite the fact the heat content of the ocean is increasing the most closest to the surface! He is getting roasted. What happened that he turned himself into a whole clown. He really has destroyed his legacy. I really believe the falling out at AccuWeather put him on an extreme path. Part of it could be just getting a little whacky with age and burnt out from all the years. Does the guy ever get more than 4 hours sleep in a night? The other part of the explanation belongs in the political forum so I digress. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: OMFG apparently this has been going on for a while but I just found out...JB has now fully conceded its warming BUT is blaming it on geothermal activity in the oceans, without any evidence and despite the fact the heat content of the ocean is increasing the most closest to the surface! He is getting roasted. What happened that he turned himself into a whole clown. A month or so ago, my Dad sent me a link that pointed to some sort of research behind this. He's a smart guy, and while I could see that *maybe* there's something in it, I just kind of let it slide. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2023 Author Share Posted January 30, 2023 9 minutes ago, mattie g said: A month or so ago, my Dad sent me a link that pointed to some sort of research behind this. He's a smart guy, and while I could see that *maybe* there's something in it, I just kind of let it slide. I have obviously not done any first hand research nor do I have a submarine... the clown part is how he spends years saying one thing... then when there is just no way he can possibly cling to that anymore he immediately swings to some other fringe theory and is immediately all in on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgottwald Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 10 hours ago, pazzo83 said: the high elevations of NC basically have a similar climate to areas hundreds of miles to the north. It's wild. I'm wondering, if Florida had a mountain range with 10,000'+ peaks running down its spine, how would that affect the climate? Would there be a rain-shadow and if so on which side? How high would the snowline be at Miami's latitude? Would we have a domestic coffee industry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2023 Author Share Posted January 30, 2023 9 minutes ago, kgottwald said: I'm wondering, if Florida had a mountain range with 10,000'+ peaks running down its spine, how would that affect the climate? Would there be a rain-shadow and if so on which side? How high would the snowline be at Miami's latitude? Would we have a domestic coffee industry? The elevation at which snow would regularly occur in winter at Miami's latitude would likely be about 10,000 feet. It could sporadically snow below that and it would snow a lot more above obviously...but that is roughly the elevation where you would see snow on a regular basis in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2023 Author Share Posted January 30, 2023 It snow's in Hawaii above 10,000 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: In the eastern US every 1000 ft of elevation equates to about 2 degrees of latitude in terms of climate. My climate at 1100 ft is closer to sea level places in southern New England. Snowshoe at 4800 ft in WV is closer to sea level at 44-45 degrees. Yeah I feel like Mount Mitchell in NC is similar to what you'd find in Ontario or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 47 minutes ago, HighStakes said: He really has destroyed his legacy. I really believe the falling out at AccuWeather put him on an extreme path. Part of it could be just getting a little whacky with age and burnt out from all the years. Does the guy ever get more than 4 hours sleep in a night? The other part of the explanation belongs in the political forum so I digress. yeah maybe it's because i was much younger, but in the early 2000s he seemed pretty reasonable. It's quite a shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: OMFG apparently this has been going on for a while but I just found out...JB has now fully conceded its warming BUT is blaming it on geothermal activity in the oceans, without any evidence and despite the fact the heat content of the ocean is increasing the most closest to the surface! He is getting roasted. What happened that he turned himself into a whole clown. He’s been on the underwater volcano thing for awhile now. Complete joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 1 minute ago, pazzo83 said: yeah maybe it's because i was much younger, but in the early 2000s he seemed pretty reasonable. It's quite a shame. Yes he was! In recent years he gets destroyed and bashed on here much to his own doing but there was a time years ago he was very good. In 2002 he kept insisting the cold and snow was coming and of course it never did but after that he had a good run and made some excellent seasonal forecasts. He had a good call on the flip to cold in late January 2007 and went warm the following winter which turned out accurate in 2008. I would say stubbornness in the 2011/2012 winter started his downhill spiral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: He’s been on the underwater volcano thing for awhile now. Complete joke Probably where my Dad got it from. He has always been an AccuWeather guy (almost went to work for them as a sales guy years ago), so he probably just continued following Bastardi after he left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 I spy a 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 on this list as well. All years from this recent stretch of futility, and all but one (2021) went on to have an AN February. If there was any wonder as to why we've been reliably snowless during this past 7 year stretch, reliable warmth is an easy culprit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 10 hours ago, psuhoffman said: It snow's in Hawaii above 10,000 feet I've hiked in Dominica where it can be 85F with 70DP at the port in Roseau and a jacket is required to maintain comfort in the mountain peaks. (over 4,000 feet) Easily 35-40 degrees colder. It's amazing how much different it feels 1500' AGL (compared to ground) on a transmitting tower. The increase in wind is enormous as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 4 hours ago, Cobalt said: I spy a 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 on this list as well. All years from this recent stretch of futility, and all but one (2021) went on to have an AN February. If there was any wonder as to why we've been reliably snowless during this past 7 year stretch, reliable warmth is an easy culprit. Man, 1932 must have been a dog. Also interesting to note that 2016 is on that list. Sometimes even in the midst of warmth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Starting to feel a legit concern I'm going to witness the first winter of my life without seeing measurable snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Looking at that CWG post I'm struck that if this year was in isolation, it would be frustrating but not overly alarming. In good company with 1932 and 1950 and 1890, and so forth. Any year can be a stinker. But the pattern is obvious. All we can do is hope that there is some natural suckage that is adding on top of the other suckage that we shall not discuss. And maybe we can have at least somewhat better times in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Is it ever gonna snow again? The answer is, It will. This winter. All over the Mid Atlantic. It is going to be plowable and eminently shovelable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 6 hours ago, Jebman said: Is it ever gonna snow again? The answer is, It will. This winter. All over the Mid Atlantic. It is going to be plowable and eminently shovelable. They brine the roads before rain. Might as well plow those puddles too! After all, folks waiting for the bus need 'deluge protection' from speeding motorists! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Being a snow lover no regrets leaving VA for high desert in OR very near high Cascades. Actually ready for spring and warmer weather. it's been a long winter. 8 + years here and always snow nearby (year round glaciers above 9000’ ) stunningly gorgeous * low humidity summers for every outdoor activity you can imagine. . * ( except when we have smoke from wildfires ☹️) If you really love snow? now is the easiest time to move. There are so many work remote options. Get away from the mid-Atlantic! West of the high midwest plateau is full of snowy locations. Elevation consistently works for snow. It even snows in the Dominican Republic! http://mydominicanvacation.com/attractions/Pico-Duarte-Dominican-Republic.html https://www.dominicanabroad.com/hiking-pico-duarte-dominican-republic/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Again, what is the point? There were warmer climate periods in the past. Maybe we are cycling into another warmer period on a longer time scale. I don't understand this argument, why say its natural cycles when this graph really tells you all you need to know, unless you are trying to work around not saying cc so you don't upset the people who upset the mods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 21 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I don't understand this argument, why say its natural cycles when this graph really tells you all you need to know, unless you are trying to work around not saying cc so you don't upset the people who upset the mods. Things were looking so good for us up until about 1800. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 @donsutherland1 with some good data on his Twitter 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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