The “is it ever going to snow again” discussion.

[JenkinsJinkies]

https://old.reddit.com/r/climatechange/comments/192j7e2/has_winter_become_cancelled_indefinitely/

[PrinceFrederickWx]

On 12/29/2023 at 8:44 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

It’s not just the lack of snow that bothers me, it’s also that lately we seem to be unable to get a significant wintry event outside of January. I haven’t had a WSW event in February since 2016 and in March since 2018. Most Feb/Mar now here have been a near-shutout.

Everyone says peak climo is until March 15, but increasingly it looks like it ends around January 31. So tbh, I’d like it even more if we really do score big this year in February or March. That would give me a lot more hope that winter isn’t being boxed in.

I was shocked to find out it's even worse for BWI; they haven't had a WSW in February or March since 2015!

If we can't score in February in this Nino, then idk what to say....

[Steve25]

1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I was shocked to find out it's even worse for BWI; they haven't had a WSW in February or March since 2015!

If we can't score in February in this Nino, then idk what to say....

Maybe that's the reason I keep feeling horrible about the remarks that late February is our best time to cash in this winter. I'm near BWI, getting big snows in late February FEELS like it just doesn't happen. 

[Yeoman]

On 3/10/2023 at 10:06 AM, psuhoffman said:

I also don't think my "emotions" are driving my points here.  Actually, what I am doing runs contrary to emotions.  I don't want this to be true.  I think emotions are actually the reason many are so hostile and resistant to some of this data and get upset when it's presented.  Actually 90% of what I have posted in this thread isn't predictive at all...its simply pointing out data and evidence of trends that have already happened.  

First of all this trend is not just the last 7 years.  Snowfall is a very anomalous fluky thing in our region.  It runs in cycles some of which have some regularity based on decadal cycles and some of which is pure fluke luck mixed in.  So if you focus only on one small sample size you can skew the picture.  But when you pull back and look at 100 years or more the patterns become more meaningful.  Yes there are up and down cycles within the trend line but there is a downward trend within that chaos.  The up periods are less up and the down periods are more down.   This current down cycle is no doubt a "down period" but it's worse than the last comparable down periods of this type.  This trend has been going on for a long time not just recently.  

It's definitely more apparent in the median than the mean because within this trend there is a phenomenon that we are also getting a few super crazy snowy years mixed in.  Part of this seems to be because the frequency of HECS events has increased.  This can also logically be explained by the same phenomenon causing the lowering of the snowfall median as a warmer base state with both reduce the number of snowfalls but also increase the chances of a super big snowstorm in the rarer instances that it is cold enough.  

There are a lot of factors here going on that in isolation each one might be hard to attribute a significant portion of this but the issue is all of these factors are all influencing things the same way, and if taken in totality I don't think its a stretch to say that is what is impacting our snow climo.  Unfortunately we are in a region that is being most affected by several of these factors when it comes to snowfall, at least median, like I said the mean is less affected because of HECS events skewing the mean.  But factors like the expanded Pacific Hadley cell, the Indo-PAC warm pool, and the warming gulf and atlantic basin are all impacting our area specifically more so than some other places.  We don't have the latitude or elevation to survive even a small push northwest of the boundary during winter along the east coast, and unfortunately all of those factors lead to that end result.  

The indo pac warm pool is favoring hostile mjo phases which leaves more of our winter in shit the blinds patterns.  The expanded hadley cell is shifting the jet north and causing a compressed flow over the north pacific (pac firehose) directing more warmth into the CONUS than was typical in the past.  The warmer gulf and atlantic is feeding the SER.  The warmer base state of the pac is favoring la nina's in the effort to balance the heat which is a bad thing for us.   It's a nasty feedback loop for our snow hopes and dreams.  

My emotions actually make me want to resist this some.  That is why I almost always bust high on my seasonal predictions.  You know from my posts all summer and fall i knew this year was going to be awful.  I think everyone got tired of me saying how god awful things looked wrt prospects for this winter.  Part of that was a generally bad longwave configuration but a lot was me knowing what that imposed onto the current warm base state would look like for us.  But when it came time for me to make a seasonal forecast I did go below avg snowfall but not nearly enoough below.  Because I just didn't want to fathom a snowless winter, but in my gut I kinda knew this was very possible if not likely.  But I went more hopeful in my forecast.  I did that again with right now.  I knew in my gut that given the extreme warm base state it was unlikely any patter was going to work out in a big way for us in March...but I didn't want to just give up on winter totally and I knew March was likely to be our only chance at a decent longwave pattern so I held out hope and said maybe we do get something in March.  I am actually to optimistic wrt our snow chances because of my emotions.  I sometimes ignore the data and evidence because I want it to snow and I want the data to be wrong.  

All that said I am also sure this is also a down cycle.  We have had a run of hostile longwave pattern seasons where even in a better climo period it was likely to be a down period.  This period can be analogous to similar periods in the 1950's, 1970s, and late 80's into early 90s.  Those were all bad too...just not as bad.  I am sure we will have a better period ahead at some point...but will it be as good as past good periods... probably not and that is the issue.  I am sure the next time we get a 30" winter some will say "see the doom and gloom was wrong, everything is fine" but that isn't the point.  No one is saying it can't snow anymore.  We are saying it is snowing less.  ANd all the data proves that.  That isn't predictive its a reality we have been living for a while now.  The only valid question is "how much less".  

The author of this novel, driven by data rather than emotions, highlights a long-term downward trend in snowfall in their region, attributing it to various climatic factors and acknowledging their own emotional bias in wanting more optimistic snow forecasts despite the evidence.