The “is it ever going to snow again” discussion.

[psuhoffman]

This is another good one... in a nina... Pac puke pattern...extremely -PNA, very warm profile in N America.  

we got a 3-6" snowstorm during this pattern... 10" up here!  It was warm...like 50 degrees a day before and a couple days after the snow, but it snowed because we got lucky and a feature within this otherwise horrible pattern with warmth everywhere took a perfect track and so despite a pac puke regime and a horrible longwave pattern it snowed and turned what could have been a really horrible shutout season into just a bad one.  Now we just say "it can't snow in that" and dismiss it.  

[psuhoffman]

And somehow this pac puke pattern didn't prevent us from getting 2 snowfall events across our area during this pattern in an otherwise bad year...but again not a total dreg year because we found a way to get some snow in what now would be a shutout no hope pattern.  

[psuhoffman]

Last one...I could do this for day's but I wont...but this one is a good comp to this week coming up.  We got 2 snows during THIS LOOK....

But one of them was especially similar to the cutter front end snow setup this week.   This was a similar system during a somewhat similar pattern.  We didn't need a perfect track to get some front end snow out of this one.  It was a couple inches in the metro areas and like 2-5" for the NW areas.  But compare this to todays 12z GFS run where some where saying "we need more confluence" or other imperfections.  But todays 12z GFS setup was infinitely better than this.  More confluence.  Same track.  It was just...not as cold.  Look at what did work in 91 and compare that to this weeks setup...

Again, this wasn't a big snowstorm.  Most probably don't remember it, just a couple inches of snow in a bad year.  But storms like this are why that year wasn't a total shutout.  We need to hit on these flawed setups sometimes.  It shouldn't only snow here when the pattern is freaking awesome.  We used to get snow from bad patterns also just not a lot of snow and not usually big snowstorms.  But now...anything other than a good pattern is a garbage torch pattern and everyone makes excuses like "its the pac" or "the PNA" or "the NAO" but we didn't used to need all those damn things to be absolutely perfect to have any chance at snow.  Those things are rarely ever going to all line up.  We need to snow in flawed patterns.  

End of case.  

 

[psuhoffman]

@WxUSAF @Bob Chill @CAPE @Terpeast Wanted your thoughts on this.  Related to the topic above but a side note kinda.  For the past several years we have consistently had an issue where really good looking patterns day 10-15 become just blah patterns, not awful really but just flawed enough that in reality they can't bring snow.  But I've noticed something.  They aren't failing because the guidance is way off on the major pattern drivers usually.  What they are off on is that the boundary ends up further north than expected.  Let me give an example.  The December pattern didn't fail because guidance was way off at long leads on the blocking or any major feature.  But what happened is as we got closer the -PNA/SE ridge equation changed.  The SE ridge pumped a little bit more that expected from long range.  But should it have?  This wasn't a case like a year ago where we had a crazy -PNA.  Why wasn't a -4 std dv block able to bully a slightly negative PNA?  From range the guidance thought it would.  Then in the end what failed was there was just more SE ridge than expected.  The rest of the pattern happened exactly as projected but under the block was a huge SE ridge that linked with the blocking.  BTW this is like 3 times in 4 years where we got great blocking and then a SE ridge links up, and that is unheard of!  

What I am getting at is this...are patterns really being progged wrong...or is guidance from long leads simply repeatedly missing the warmth and the associated ridging?  

[CAPE]

Without overthinking it as I don't have the energy, TNH + Nina is problematic, and add warming on top of that.

Still hoping for a CP moderate Nino next winter. See how we roll with that.

[MacChump]

also it’s Friday night

[CAPE]

23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Without overthinking it as I don't have the energy, TNH + Nina is problematic, and add warming on top of that.

One thing that can overcome all that is a mechanism for injecting cross polar flow into the pattern, with a trough carved into the central US that progresses eastward bringing legit cold. That's basically what happened early last Jan, but ofc that set up requires a lot to go right to get a storm to develop in time. Wet got the cold though. 

Cold is building in our source region now but going forward there is no mechanism for it push southward in the presence of a SE ridge. The hope on the guidance to suppress the ridge and shift  the boundary just a bit further south was a -NAO period in conjunction with a -EPO. The former has (pretty suddenly) completely disappeared, and the EPO looks to trend positive towards early Feb, with an already -PNA. Ouch.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, MacChump said:

also it’s Friday night

It is and I am currently drinking an incredibly delicious 120 min IPA, had half a gummy, and about to eat sushi. 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

@WxUSAF @Bob Chill @CAPE @Terpeast Wanted your thoughts on this.  Related to the topic above but a side note kinda.  For the past several years we have consistently had an issue where really good looking patterns day 10-15 become just blah patterns, not awful really but just flawed enough that in reality they can't bring snow.  But I've noticed something.  They aren't failing because the guidance is way off on the major pattern drivers usually.  What they are off on is that the boundary ends up further north than expected.  Let me give an example.  The December pattern didn't fail because guidance was way off at long leads on the blocking or any major feature.  But what happened is as we got closer the -PNA/SE ridge equation changed.  The SE ridge pumped a little bit more that expected from long range.  But should it have?  This wasn't a case like a year ago where we had a crazy -PNA.  Why wasn't a -4 std dv block able to bully a slightly negative PNA?  From range the guidance thought it would.  Then in the end what failed was there was just more SE ridge than expected.  The rest of the pattern happened exactly as projected but under the block was a huge SE ridge that linked with the blocking.  BTW this is like 3 times in 4 years where we got great blocking and then a SE ridge links up, and that is unheard of!  

What I am getting at is this...are patterns really being progged wrong...or is guidance from long leads simply repeatedly missing the warmth and the associated ridging?  

I don’t have the answers as I’m no expert on models. It does seem to me that they consistently underestimate the SER/WAR. Maybe they need to update them to account for that, especially if it’s become a permanent fixture. I hope I’m wrong and that all we need is a few cyclones to churn up those waters and when this nina is finally dead, maybe the whole thing can get a nice reset. 

[BristowWx]

26 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It is and I am currently drinking an incredibly delicious 120 min IPA, had half a gummy, and about to eat sushi. 

That’s how you handle not getting snow like a boss.  Hats off to you sir.  A second 120min IPA and you won’t care if it rains dog turds. 

[psuhoffman]

having a whiskey sour at the only bar in Manchester. 

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

That’s how you handle not getting snow like a boss.  Hats off to you sir.  A second 120min IPA and you won’t care if it rains dog turds. 

lol too funny.

One will put you in a nice place. 2? I actually did that once, on tap at Rehoboth, and I was down for the count, sleeping like a baby not long after.

[BristowWx]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

having a whiskey sour at the only bar in Manchester. 

The snow may never show…to the bar we must go

[CAPE]

Moved on to this.

Black Flag never fails me. Very good. With sooo many hazy NE/WC style IPAs out there, more bad than good, THIS is very nice.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

My guess would be that we have a window mid-Late February, the dates when last year's -PNA peaked.. March is not going to snow probably, as I am looking at -PNA for March

[Terpeast]

Drinking a St Benardus Abt 12 tonight. Big bottle. 

[clueless]

Well, while we’re at it - Metro Red, Port City Brewing. 

[nw baltimore wx]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Moved on to this.

Black Flag never fails me. Very good. With sooo many hazy NE/WC style IPAs out there, more bad than good, THIS is very nice.

Totally agree on Black Flag’s brews, but I can’t bring myself to give that label a like.

[Terpeast]

Wow that beer was good. Nice to not think about winter on a Friday night for once 

[cbmclean]

@psuhoffman So we here (at least most of us) know what "it" is that is the ultimate villain behind the scenes.  What has worked for you guys before just isn't working now and you are heading towards my climatology (let's not talk about where mine is headed ).  

The only meaningful question that I think we can consider here is: to what extent, if any, is the current absolute record-setting crap stretch also due to a natural down cycle that happens to be compound the background warming?  Put another way, what reasons if any, do you feel we have for optimism that we see less-bad times in the near future?  

I can only think of one major argument which is what appears to be the relative suddenness of the collapse into the complete fail stretch pattern.  We went from "loosing around the margins" to the pit of despair in like a 5 year span, which could be interpreted to fit the pattern of natural variation instead of the gradual decline we were used to.  However, the counterpoint to that that Climate Cassandras for years now have been warning about sudden non-linear tipping points.  Maybe we just passed one?  Maybe the 2016 mega Nino was the harbinger of the new regime? 

If you have any other possibilities, I'm interested to hear them.  If not, then I'd like to face our future with dignity, shitting the blinds as I go.    

[Ji]

No

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, cbmclean said:

@psuhoffman So we here (at least most of us) know what "it" is that is the ultimate villain behind the scenes.  What has worked for you guys before just isn't working now and you are heading towards my climatology (let's not talk about where mine is headed ).  

The only meaningful question that I think we can consider here is: to what extent, if any, is the current absolute record-setting crap stretch also due to a natural down cycle that happens to be compound the background warming?  Put another way, what reasons if any, do you feel we have for optimism that we see less-bad times in the near future?  

I can only think of one major argument which is what appears to be the relative suddenness of the collapse into the complete fail stretch pattern.  We went from "loosing around the margins" to the pit of despair in like a 5 year span, which could be interpreted to fit the pattern of natural variation instead of the gradual decline we were used to.  However, the counterpoint to that that Climate Cassandras for years now have been warning about sudden non-linear tipping points.  Maybe we just passed one?  Maybe the 2016 mega Nino was the harbinger of the new regime? 

If you have any other possibilities, I'm interested to hear them.  If not, then I'd like to face our future with dignity, shitting the blinds as I go.    

Just one question: Who the frickle is Cassandra?

[jayyy]

[mention=2304]psuhoffman[/mention] So we here (at least most of us) know what "it" is that is the ultimate villain behind the scenes.  What has worked for you guys before just isn't working now and you are heading towards my climatology (let's not talk about where mine is headed ).  
The only meaningful question that I think we can consider here is: to what extent, if any, is the current absolute record-setting crap stretch also due to a natural down cycle that happens to be compound the background warming?  Put another way, what reasons if any, do you feel we have for optimism that we see less-bad times in the near future?  
I can only think of one major argument which is what appears to be the relative suddenness of the collapse into the complete fail stretch pattern.  We went from "loosing around the margins" to the pit of despair in like a 5 year span, which could be interpreted to fit the pattern of natural variation instead of the gradual decline we were used to.  However, the counterpoint to that that Climate Cassandras for years now have been warning about sudden non-linear tipping points.  Maybe we just passed one?  Maybe the 2016 mega Nino was the harbinger of the new regime? 
If you have any other possibilities, I'm interested to hear them.  If not, then I'd like to face our future with dignity, shitting the blinds as I go.    

I think it’s a legit theory that we may have entered a new regime of extremes. CC is certainly making marginal setups harder to overcome, which has pretty much been every potential we’ve come across for the past 2 years.

Shitty winters may be god awful going forward. Good winters could still be big winners; with fewer “average” winters in between. We’ll have a much better idea next winter when we finally enter a more favorable base state -- modoki anyone?! — whether or not we can still do sustained cold and snow or if we truly are fucked.

Winter 2010 and 2015 weren’t THAT long ago, but it’s possible that period panned out so well because we were in a transition period where we saw larger storms due to AGW but had not quite crossed over the warmth threshold yet.

I’m still in the “we don’t have enough data to make a full determination” camp, as it’s possible that we see another stretch of great winters and that we have just been extremely unlucky, but it’s become VERY obvious that CC has seriously harmed our chances at scoring in marginal setups. The thought of us getting a significant snowfall in a +NAO is laughable nowadays, but that wasn’t always the case.


.

[cbmclean]

11 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Just one question: Who the frickle is Cassandra?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassandra

[psuhoffman]

30 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

LOL. climate crisis has nothing to do with shitty storm tracks.  When low pressure is tracking through Indiana, its wont snow here, no matter how cold it is. 

ETA.. Actually I take this back.. I really dont know enough about the interplay between our warming climate and atmospheric synoptic patterns.. but yay fantasy snow!  

@Ji You know I am not a climate crusader on here.  My concern (on here) is only related to one specific thing on here and that is our snowfall. And it's related to 3 specific factors (Pac Hadley Cell expansion, MJO changes, and the prevalence of the SE ridge) that have all been linked to the recent warming SST's.  If it makes you feel better you can pretend its a cyclical thing and this recent SST warming is not at all related to AGW.  I don't need to go there as when it comes to my discussions on here it is 100% related to our snowfall and factors impacting it whether they are cyclical or a longer term trend is irrelevant to how they impact us RIGHT NOW.  If you read to the end of this there is a nugget you might even like, I promise!

@MDScienceTeacher I do not think the couple degrees of warming in the atmosphere is primarily to blame for our struggles.  What I think is having a bigger impact are 3 specific side affects of warming.  Specifically the warming waters.  3 affects of that are directly impacting our snowfall in a negative correlation imo.

1) The expanding indo-pac warm pool is affecting the MJO in a way hostile to our snowfall.  Due to the impacts of warmer waters there the MJO is being suppressed in phases 1-2 and enhanced it phases 3-5.  Phases 1-2 correlate to troughs in the eastern US and phases 3-5 correlate to an eastern ridge.

2) The warmer waters in general are correlated to the expansion of the pacific hadley cell.  This is having 2 negative impacts.  It is encouraging a central pacific ridge which sets up a hostile wavelength for cold in the eastern US, and its shifting the whole thermal boundary in the Pac north, which means when we do get a somewhat hostile flow off the pacific, the air is even warmer.  Pac puke is getting worse.  Worse than that I see signs that even a mix of pac and continental polar air, a mix that used to work for us, is becoming hostile because the pac part of that equation is so warm it dominates the equation. 

3) The warming Gulf and Atlantic waters have been correlated with enhancing the SE ridge.  Any wave approaching across the CONUS has more heat to draw upon in the southerly flow ahead of it.  This will push the boundary north and pump the ridge changing the storm path further north.  

All 3 of these factors are in a feedback loop working against us.  All 3 in tandem are enhancing the SE ridge and pushing the boundary north.  The first 2 are affecting what kind of airmasses are likely to even be available over North America.  Together I think these 3 specific factors, which are side affects of the recent warming, are severely hurting our snow prospects here.  

@cbmclean @jayyy I can't say for sure exactly how much these factors have degraded our longer term chances for snow and how much have been a convergence of a cyclical down period with these CC issues.  But here is my best educated guess.   I do think we have had a relatively unfavorable period that would have been a down cycle in any era.  But I also think this down period is worse because of these factors.  Much worse.  I also think the last up period was already somewhat suppressed here.  We did not do as well in the last 2 "snowy" periods in the early 2000s and early 2010's as places a little colder and less latitudinally challenged.  We decoupled for example with places like NYC.  What I mean is...there was always a pretty consistent relationship between DC or Baltimore and some cities that got more snow in that they should, over a set period, get 30% more snow.  Then suddenly they were getting 75% more snow!  And it happened over 2 decades!  I don't think that was a fluke...we were already not taking as much advantage of the last 2 snowy cycles as colder places were.  I think that is likely to continue.  There will probably be another "snowy" cycle ahead but there is a real chance for us it will be muted and yes we will do better than we have been...I don't think DC will continue to average 7" a season, but maybe in the next snowy period DC averages 15" instead of 20 or 25" in past 7 year snowy periods.  

The reason for my thoughts on this are I do think we will get years where the dominant pattern is so favorable it can offset these negative factors I listed above.  But those factors will still fight and so we might still lose out on some snow we might have got before those factors were all lined up against us.  But will a year like 2003 and 2010 suddenly be awful with like 5", I doubt that, god I hope not.  My guess is the really good years will still be really good.  And I do agree with @brooklynwx99 that there will be instances where warming enhances our snowfall and we might get a 20" snowstorm that would only have been 12" in the past...but I think on the whole that is not worth it and these changes are a net negative.  We are hurt way more than we are helped.  

@Ji @Maestrobjwa @WxUSAF here is one nugget of hope...I have read a study that hypothesizes that as the oceans continue to warm as a whole...eventually the affects of the indo-pac warm pool will be muted and the longer term impact of warming might be to enhance MJO waves into the central and eastern pacific which are cold phase locations.  I obviously had no part in this study but it makes logical sense to me.  Right now one part of the ocean has warmed faster and is enhancing convection in places we don't want it.  But as the whole ocean warms more the overall impact could just be a stronger wave in general which would make it more likely these waves make it into phase 7-8-1, which historically are the hardest locations for MJO waves to sustain.  This could be a net benefit to us at some point in the future assuming the whole thermal profile of the northern hemisphere isn't too wrecked by that point for it to matter.  

[cbmclean]

Not making this up, I dreamed of snow last night.  Even in my dreams it was marginal mess.  

[WxUSAF]

@psuhoffman re: why the pac is bad, you have to consider the -PDO. We had a very favorable PDO during our 09-10 through 15-16 winters. There were news stories about the “ridiculously resilient ridge” and associated west coast drought and ocean ecosystem impacts. Now that’s flipped and a -PNA is favored by that alone. 

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@psuhoffman re: why the pac is bad, you have to consider the -PDO. We had a very favorable PDO during our 09-10 through 15-16 winters. There were news stories about the “ridiculously resilient ridge” and associated west coast drought and ocean ecosystem impacts. Now that’s flipped and a -PNA is favored by that alone. 

I think the pdo is part of a larger equation. But it can’t be IT.  The correlation between the pdo and our snow isn’t THAT  high. It’s real but not enough to account for all this. First of all the last -pdo cycle lasted 35 years. And yes there were bad periods in the 50s and 70s but we had a great run in the 60s in a -pdo. 1979 was a -pdo. We had some awful cycles during the + pdo cycle also. 2018 was a +pdo and this phenomenon kept happening anyways. Dec-Jan 2011 had a -pdo and there wasn’t this issue. We had other issues lol.  In past -pdo periods blocking was able to overcome and cause the trough to be more broad and suppress the SE ridge.  A +AO in a -PDO was always a really bad deal but a -AO used to offset a -pdo.  That’s why the +AO periods during the last -pdo cycle were bad. But the -AO periods were still very good.
 

Maybe that’s changed but that’s a big deal. Especially since this -pdo could dominate the next 25 years based on past cycles. This isn’t a temporary problem if we can’t overcome a -pdo we’re in big trouble. The last -pdo period from the 40s to the mid 70s we were able to.  
 

 

[MDScienceTeacher]

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji You know I am not a climate crusader on here.  My concern (on here) is only related to one specific thing on here and that is our snowfall. And it's related to 3 specific factors (Pac Hadley Cell expansion, MJO changes, and the prevalence of the SE ridge) that have all been linked to the recent warming SST's.  If it makes you feel better you can pretend its a cyclical thing and this recent SST warming is not at all related to AGW.  I don't need to go there as when it comes to my discussions on here it is 100% related to our snowfall and factors impacting it whether they are cyclical or a longer term trend is irrelevant to how they impact us RIGHT NOW.  If you read to the end of this there is a nugget you might even like, I promise!

@MDScienceTeacher I do not think the couple degrees of warming in the atmosphere is primarily to blame for our struggles.  What I think is having a bigger impact are 3 specific side affects of warming.  Specifically the warming waters.  3 affects of that are directly impacting our snowfall in a negative correlation imo.

1) The expanding indo-pac warm pool is affecting the MJO in a way hostile to our snowfall.  Due to the impacts of warmer waters there the MJO is being suppressed in phases 1-2 and enhanced it phases 3-5.  Phases 1-2 correlate to troughs in the eastern US and phases 3-5 correlate to an eastern ridge.

2) The warmer waters in general are correlated to the expansion of the pacific hadley cell.  This is having 2 negative impacts.  It is encouraging a central pacific ridge which sets up a hostile wavelength for cold in the eastern US, and its shifting the whole thermal boundary in the Pac north, which means when we do get a somewhat hostile flow off the pacific, the air is even warmer.  Pac puke is getting worse.  Worse than that I see signs that even a mix of pac and continental polar air, a mix that used to work for us, is becoming hostile because the pac part of that equation is so warm it dominates the equation. 

3) The warming Gulf and Atlantic waters have been correlated with enhancing the SE ridge.  Any wave approaching across the CONUS has more heat to draw upon in the southerly flow ahead of it.  This will push the boundary north and pump the ridge changing the storm path further north.  

All 3 of these factors are in a feedback loop working against us.  All 3 in tandem are enhancing the SE ridge and pushing the boundary north.  The first 2 are affecting what kind of airmasses are likely to even be available over North America.  Together I think these 3 specific factors, which are side affects of the recent warming, are severely hurting our snow prospects here.  

@cbmclean @jayyy I can't say for sure exactly how much these factors have degraded our longer term chances for snow and how much have been a convergence of a cyclical down period with these CC issues.  But here is my best educated guess.   I do think we have had a relatively unfavorable period that would have been a down cycle in any era.  But I also think this down period is worse because of these factors.  Much worse.  I also think the last up period was already somewhat suppressed here.  We did not do as well in the last 2 "snowy" periods in the early 2000s and early 2010's as places a little colder and less latitudinally challenged.  We decoupled for example with places like NYC.  What I mean is...there was always a pretty consistent relationship between DC or Baltimore and some cities that got more snow in that they should, over a set period, get 30% more snow.  Then suddenly they were getting 75% more snow!  And it happened over 2 decades!  I don't think that was a fluke...we were already not taking as much advantage of the last 2 snowy cycles as colder places were.  I think that is likely to continue.  There will probably be another "snowy" cycle ahead but there is a real chance for us it will be muted and yes we will do better than we have been...I don't think DC will continue to average 7" a season, but maybe in the next snowy period DC averages 15" instead of 20 or 25" in past 7 year snowy periods.  

The reason for my thoughts on this are I do think we will get years where the dominant pattern is so favorable it can offset these negative factors I listed above.  But those factors will still fight and so we might still lose out on some snow we might have got before those factors were all lined up against us.  But will a year like 2003 and 2010 suddenly be awful with like 5", I doubt that, god I hope not.  My guess is the really good years will still be really good.  And I do agree with @brooklynwx99 that there will be instances where warming enhances our snowfall and we might get a 20" snowstorm that would only have been 12" in the past...but I think on the whole that is not worth it and these changes are a net negative.  We are hurt way more than we are helped.  

@Ji @Maestrobjwa @WxUSAF here is one nugget of hope...I have read a study that hypothesizes that as the oceans continue to warm as a whole...eventually the affects of the indo-pac warm pool will be muted and the longer term impact of warming might be to enhance MJO waves into the central and eastern pacific which are cold phase locations.  I obviously had no part in this study but it makes logical sense to me.  Right now one part of the ocean has warmed faster and is enhancing convection in places we don't want it.  But as the whole ocean warms more the overall impact could just be a stronger wave in general which would make it more likely these waves make it into phase 7-8-1, which historically are the hardest locations for MJO waves to sustain.  This could be a net benefit to us at some point in the future assuming the whole thermal profile of the northern hemisphere isn't too wrecked by that point for it to matter.  

Yeah that is the best explanation I have seen.. ever about this... and it makes sense to me.  The one thing that really stands out over the last couple of years is that we haven't been able to pad our stats with the early December event.. (remember the Dec 5th series?).  It is purely anecdotal but it just feels we don't snow in December any more.   On a positive note, I do think we are getting close to our typical climatological window where we see 2-4 weeks of solid storm tracks and persistent cold air.  What happens during this period will be crucial in determining whether or not we score or we are left to hoping for a late season miracle while fighting sun angle.    

[Cobalt]

On 1/19/2023 at 5:37 PM, psuhoffman said:

We need the cold to have enough depth to resist when waves try to push the boundary north. 
 

let me simplify this. We have always had 3 basic ways to get snow. 
 

1) perfect track and a cold airmass 

2) a wave attacking a cold airmass

3) a lucky perfect track in an otherwise crap pattern 

I think it would be interesting to go back and categorize past snowfall events based on this criteria. From purely anecdotal evidence (and using what you've mentioned), it feels like 1 and 3 are happening less, but for whatever reason 2 might be happening more, or at least those events end up having more QPF than they used to. In just about every recent winter that has had at least some sustained cold (not just transient cold shots), those seem to follow. We got 1 or 2 of those last year, I can recall a few in 18-19, one in Feb 2016 (which dropped a surprise 8-12" in Stafford county), several back in 14-15, and so on. They're obviously not incredibly numerous, but I think those are events we're maximizing on more than we used to. They're replacing our bread and butter 3-6" events, and sometimes with more upside (like that one event in Feb 2015 after the brutal arctic shot where the track was awful but the cold was so entrenched that areas out near Leesburg got 10-14" before things warmed up enough). Of course the issue is that based on all of the data presented, none of that is enough to mitigate the loss of margins on the other two types of snow which in total likely add up to many more opportunities, but it is an interesting anecdote nonetheless.