The “is it ever going to snow again” discussion.

[psuhoffman]

Let’s move all this discussion here for maestro’s sanity sake. 

[nj2va]

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Ji said:

I'm going with the jma

Always a good idea, the snowiest model always performs well, especially when it’s a lone outlier!  

3 hours ago, Ji said:

MSP has 15 inches in January....and there is still 17 days left lol. In December they recorded, 19 inches. I am not sure what their average is but i am sure nobody there is crying about Global Warming taking their snow. Maybe next year...when DC gets all the snow and they are high and dry haha

MSP snowfall has absolutely no correlation to us. They’re 5 degrees north of us!   I don’t have the data analysts to be conclusive of these yet but to make my point, an expanding pacific Hadley cell would likely be a net benefit to their snow climo but negative to us. A more prominent SE ridge from a hotter gulf and Atlantic would also help them and hurt us. Anything that shifts the baroclinic boundary north hurts us way more than them.   Again using locations with vastly different climates isn’t valid to the case you’re trying to make.  I’ve never claimed it’s getting harder to snow everywhere. I’ve said it’s become harder to snow HERE!  What it does in MSP is irrelevant. 

2 hours ago, Ji said:

we can snow with this...its also a mean...maybe a few members are so deep with the SW Trough that its skewing things.

 

That’s one of the coldest individual frames. That’s bad because we’re still not on the cold side and rarely will the wave occur at the coldest point.  Actually the waves are likely to happen at the warmest point due to basic physics of waves and the flow ahead of any wave. We really want to be well into the cold side of the boundary on a mean to survive the push north of the boundary ahead of any reasonable wave. It’s not an impossible look. But it would require a lot of luck. The last 7 years hasn’t made me feel lucky. 

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

I will probably get blasted for this but science has become a religion to some. When the entire goal of science used to be debating differing opinions. Now if you differ from the main stream you get cancelled. That isnt science. That is conforming to the status quo. 

That article us junk. There is good science and bad. People need to use their brains and identify when something is based on sound evidence and analysis and when it’s sensationalism and click bait. 

36 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

NINA

Nina’s strongly correlate to below avg snow here. Not no snow. Actually it’s almost unheard of to get this far into a Nina in this area with no snow, or like 2” in your case.  Typically Nina’s have way less spread that other years and the vast majority historically end up near median snowfall in the area.  Most of our truly god awful years we’re enso neutral (which can be great or awful, see 2014 and 2020) or super ninos like 73 & 98.  This is very abnormal for a Nina. 

[Jersey Andrew]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Always a good idea, the snowiest model always performs well, especially when it’s a lone outlier!  

MSP snowfall has absolutely no correlation to us. They’re 5 degrees north of us!   I don’t have the data analysts to be conclusive of these yet but to make my point, an expanding pacific Hadley cell would likely be a net benefit to their snow climo but negative to us. A more prominent SE ridge from a hotter gulf and Atlantic would also help them and hurt us. Anything that shifts the baroclinic boundary north hurts us way more than them.   Again using locations with vastly different climates isn’t valid to the case you’re trying to make.  I’ve never claimed it’s getting harder to snow everywhere. I’ve said it’s become harder to snow HERE!  What it does in MSP is irrelevant. 

That’s one of the coldest individual frames. That’s bad because we’re still not on the cold side and rarely will the wave occur at the coldest point.  Actually the waves are likely to happen at the warmest point due to basic physics of waves and the flow ahead of any wave. We really want to be well into the cold side of the boundary on a mean to survive the push north of the boundary ahead of any reasonable wave. It’s not an impossible look. But it would require a lot of luck. The last 7 years hasn’t made me feel lucky. 

That article us junk. There is good science and bad. People need to use their brains and identify when something is based on sound evidence and analysis and when it’s sensationalism and click bait. 

Nina’s strongly correlate to below avg snow here. Not no snow. Actually it’s almost unheard of to get this far into a Nina in this area with no snow, or like 2” in your case.  Typically Nina’s have way less spread that other years and the vast majority historically end up near median snowfall in the area.  Most of our truly god awful years we’re enso neutral (which can be great or awful, see 2014 and 2020) or super ninos like 73 & 98.  This is very abnormal for a Nina. 

How unusual is it for West Coast sopping rains in a La Niña? 

[IronTy]

It's over.  

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There is good science and bad

And yet Einstein's theory of relativity was considered bad science for a decade. 

 

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nina’s strongly correlate to below avg snow here. Not no snow

Agree. We have been very unlucky so far this year. But the overall pattern with the never ending Northern Pacific HP is PURE Nina. You are FAR MORE educated in meteorology than me. But I know a shit pattern when I see it. And the Pac has been absolute garbage. 

[clskinsfan]

5 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

How unusual is it for West Coast sopping rains in a La Niña? 

Not unusual at all. Normally northern Pac. But yeah. We are done. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

And yet Einstein's theory of relativity was considered bad science for a decade. 

 

Agree. We have been very unlucky so far this year. But the overall pattern with the never ending Northern Pacific HP is PURE Nina. You are FAR MORE educated in meteorology than me. But I know a shit pattern when I see it. And the Pac has been absolute garbage. 

Actually the north pac has had low pressure much of the time which is more Nino.  That’s why the super Nino ish temp profile and CA precip.  
 

As for your first part, I’m not the arbiter of truth. I try to present evidence. Sometimes I make a claim and always back it up with the reasons why I feel that way. But I’ve never told anyone to shut up or tried to stop any conversations. Never will. 

[Cobalt]

It's crazy how DCA averaged just 18" during this stretch. Even with the 11-12 and 12-13 duds in there, that's one of the better h5 looks you could expect over such a long average.

For reference, here's a stretch in the 80s where DCA averaged around 20". Definitely didn't need an insane +PNA/-EPO + cross-polar flow to pull that off. Of course the selected periods end up a bit arbitrary, but this is just meant to show two periods of similar snowiness in separate eras. 

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

It's crazy how DCA averaged just 18" during this stretch. Even with the 11-12 and 12-13 duds in there, that's one of the better h5 looks you could expect over such a long average.

For reference, here's a stretch in the 80s where DCA averaged around 20". Definitely didn't need an insane +PNA/-EPO + cross-polar flow to pull that off. Of course the selected periods end up a bit arbitrary, but this is just meant to show two periods of similar snowiness in separate eras. 

Look at the Aleutians. Huge difference between a LP and HP there. It sets up the position of the ridge on the west coast. We cannot score consistently with an HP there. That is a cutter pattern almost always.

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Look at the Aleutians. Huge difference between a LP and HP there. It sets up the position of the ridge on the west coast. We cannot score consistently with an HP there. That is a cutter pattern almost always.

This is true. If anything, it shows how lucky we were in the 13-14 and 14-15 winters. Without the major PNA/EPO help, this isn't far from being a pattern where we're on the wrong side of the gradient (possibly like what we're about to deal with in the D8-14 range):

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

This is true. If anything, it shows how lucky we were in the 13-14 and 14-15 winters. Without the major PNA/EPO help, this isn't far from being a pattern where we're on the wrong side of the gradient (possibly like what we're about to deal with in the D8-14 range):

Yep. I am not great at this stuff. I look for a few indicators whether we actually have chance. An Aleutian low is one of them. It forces the west coast ridge to a far better position for us. Other people here are far better at smaller scale stuff. For me it is about seeing the larger Conus and knowing when we have a chance. IF the op models are right. We have no chance for a while. 

[cbmclean]

Was curious about how the PDO might interact with the AMO, so reading about the AMO on Wikipedia yesterday.  Apparently there is no consensus that it even exists.  Some think it's just noise.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Was curious about how the PDO might interact with the AMO, so reading about the AMO on Wikipedia yesterday.  Apparently there is no consensus that it even exists.  Some think it's just noise.

Maybe it is noise but the effect of the warmer waters isn’t. So even if there is no cyclical cause and it’s just random it still matters to our sensible weather. 

[cbmclean]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe it is noise but the effect of the warmer waters isn’t. So even if there is no cyclical cause and it’s just random it still matters to our sensible weather. 

Certainly, my point was if it isn't an oscillation we have no reason to expect it to "change states" at some future point.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Certainly, my point was if it isn't an oscillation we have no reason to expect it to "change states" at some future point.

Ya I was thinking “ you better hope it’s real” because if it’s not and it’s just been “randomly” this way that’s a lot worse. 

[Ji]

Ya I was thinking “ you better hope it’s real” because if it’s not and it’s just been “randomly” this way that’s a lot worse. 

You just got 50 inches....then last winter...central Virginia was well above normal with snow and we had a ton to track. Its snowing in the area just fine. Can we just have a bad year in peace

[Maestrobjwa]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Let’s move all this discussion here for maestro’s sanity sake. 

That last part wasn't necessary. This is for everybody because we don't need this ad nauseum in the other thread...and I know I ain't the only one who feels that way. Making this about just me sounds defensive (yeah I'm defensive too because ya just attacked me by making it look like I was the only one with an issue)

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Ji said:

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ya I was thinking “ you better hope it’s real” because if it’s not and it’s just been “randomly” this way that’s a lot worse. 

You just got 50 inches....then last winter...central Virginia was well above normal with snow and we had a ton to track. Its snowing in the area just fine. Can we just have a bad year in peace

50“ is only slightly above avg for me. And it was preceded by the least snowy winter in 50 years, followed by a horrible season and surrounded by 5 below avg years.  That’s doing fine?  DC and Baltimore are in the midst of the least snowy 7 year period in recorded history. But that’s doing fine?  You’re bringing up MSP which is 5 degree north of us and half a continent away in relation to our snow!  

This isn’t about one or two storms or some anecdotal examples.  It has been the least snowy period ever for much of this forum.  That’s just pure numbers.  

Seriously what is your agenda here because your points are not even close to grounded in reality right now. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That last part wasn't necessary. This is for everybody because we don't need this ad nauseum in the other thread...and I know I ain't the only one who feels that way. Making this about just me sounds defensive (yeah I'm defensive too because ya just attacked me by making it look like I was the only one with an issue)

This is twice now you’ve reacted this way to a joke. 

[psuhoffman]

@Ji Baltimore snowfall (Avg 19.3)

2017 3”

2018 15.4”

2019 18.3” (in a Nino!!!)

2020 1.8”

2021 10.9”

2022 14.4

2023 0 through Jan 15

Least snowy 7 years in recorded history 

This isn’t about one storm. Ya it can still snow. It likely will snow this winter at some point.  This isn’t about one bad year. It’s literally been the least snowy period ever over 7 years now and you’re acting like it’s just some bad luck for a month or two. 

[Ji]

50“ is only slightly above avg for me. And it was preceded by the least snowy winter in 50 years, followed by a horrible season and surrounded by 5 below avg years.  That’s doing fine?  DC and Baltimore are in the midst of the least snowy 7 year period in recorded history. But that’s doing fine?  You’re bringing up MSP which is 5 degree north of us and half a continent away in relation to our snow!  

This isn’t about one or two storms or some anecdotal examples.  It has been the least snowy period ever for much of this forum.  That’s just pure numbers.  
Seriously what is your agenda here because your points are not even close to grounded in reality right now. 

Im saying...im not worried. Between 2009-2016 we had so much snow...my kids thought severe winters were normal lol. Now we're in a bad cycle but even that cycle has given us many trackable threats. We've had bad luck

When truckee stops getting snow in 2 decades...ill start to panic

[cbmclean]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji Baltimore snowfall (Avg 19.3)

2017 3”

2018 15.4”

2019 18.3” (in a Nino!!!)

2020 1.8”

2021 10.9”

2022 14.4

2023 0 through Jan 15

Least snowy 7 years in recorded history 

This isn’t about one storm. Ya it can still snow. It likely will snow this winter at some point.  This isn’t about one bad year. It’s literally been the least snowy period ever over 7 years now and you’re acting like it’s just some bad luck for a month or two. 

2019 was a grave disappointment.

[Ji]

2019 was a grave disappointment.

That was a overatted weak nino right?

[cbmclean]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

13 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

2019 was a grave disappointment.

That was a overatted weak nino right?

Well, we all had high hopes, so I guess in that sense it was over-rated.  That was the year I learned to hate the MJO.

[Ji]

Hmmm

[fujiwara79]

Unless February temperatures end up significantly below average, this will be the eighth consecutive winter (DJF) that will finish with warmer-than-average temperatures.  That's also the longest streak on record.  We're in a historically bad period.  

Over the past thirty years or so, our "cold" winters usually end up at -1 or -2 below average.  But our warm winters are around +4 to +6 above average.  Our cold winters just aren't that cold anymore.  But we've been overperforming on the warm winters.

[psuhoffman]

38 minutes ago, Ji said:

45 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

2019 was a grave disappointment.

That was a overatted weak nino right?

Sure but it’s revisionist. Going into that winter most we’re calling for epic snow then when it didn’t happen (our region even did better than most) the excuses came out.  

[psuhoffman]

26 minutes ago, Ji said:

Hmmm

No one has claimed it’s not snowing at all. But it’s snowed less over the last 7 years than any previous period in history. Posting examples of when it did snow some doesn’t refute my point. 

[WinterFire]

52 minutes ago, Ji said:

Hmmm

Hmmmmm not sure you’re the one to be making the point you think you’re making here chief.