Jan 19-20: Hoosier is not allowed to start this thread

[RCNYILWX]

Obviously southern convection can rob cold sector precip, but can it also force the low to form/kinda tug it more south or straight east as it moves along?

That can happen, but the exact track of the consoliated surface low might not matter as much if the convection forces much of the warm sector precip to shoot eastward. That plus a more limited duration of sufficient moisture in the DGZ would really truncate the time window of accumulating snow.

A problem I'm seeing with the double barrelled low is that it holding on longer ties some of the deformation type precip to that low, with a massive dry slot surging northward. Loop 700 mb RH to see the effects of the dry slot. By the time better moisture wraps back in, the forcing weakens as the consolidated surface low to the east exits off to the northeast. Also that western low may have a pretty wound up 850 mb low resulting in warmer thermal profiles (ie. 12z GEM and 06z Euro).



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[Baum]

The guy with the green grass better get the tarp out. Metro Chicago headed, if lucky, for a 1-2" thump followed by drizzle and white slush balls falling from tree limbs. Sadly, if you like winter, this is a huge improvement.

[Powerball]

Setup has potential for a Milwaukee crusher, but trends die hard. Still a solid chance this will just unravel into another long-duration advisory event (2-4" or 3-6") for the CHI-DET corridor.

[dmc76]

13 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Setup has potential for a Milwaukee crusher, but trends die hard. Still a solid chance this will just unravel into another long-duration advisory event (2-4" or 3-6") for the CHI-DET corridor.

What is suggesting that ?

[Baum]

58 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

What is suggesting that ?

the weather models

[dmc76]

1 minute ago, Baum said:

the weather models

Weenie weather models? 

[hawkeye_wx]

12z Euro - Trending stronger in the plains and weaker and north around here.  

[cyclone77]

5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

12z Euro - Trending stronger in the plains and weaker and north around here.  

If that is verbatim the outcome then I'd rather just have all rain and go for futility lol.

[Hoosier]

Where's the south trend when we need it?

I do wonder if this may be less prone to trending materially south than other storms we have seen.  A lot of times when the models trend south, it's because they botched a phase.  We don't really have that kind of setup this time.  Not that it still couldn't trend south though.

[Chicago Storm]

This is still a pre-pattern shift thread the needle-ish kind of setup for most.

Definitely wouldn’t get too invested for a few more days, but consistency/support at D5 is at least good for now.

bump.


.

[Baum]

right where we want it.

[michsnowfreak]

 I'm not feeling this one for Detroit. I think we will get some of the following ones. Just my gut instinct though, as we all know nothing is certain until show time.

 

 

 

 

[RCNYILWX]

Where's the south trend when we need it?
I do wonder if this may be less prone to trending materially south than other storms we have seen.  A lot of times when the models trend south, it's because they botched a phase.  We don't really have that kind of setup this time.  Not that it still couldn't trend south though.

The element that needs to change is the 850 mb low from the initial Plains sfc low tracking so far north. Even though a stronger surface low eventually evolves farther east, the current forecast 850 mb low path will make it tough to get good snow farther south.

Plus the air mass is marginal to begin with, especially with southward extent. In addition, early maturing of the Plains low with a messy transfer and early dry slot intrusion (before considering how warm sector convection might interfere) look to cut into accums even where it does snow.

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[sbnwx85]

Punting this one. The next one looks too far north at this time, too, but we’ll see. At least there are storms to track. 

[Hoosier]

9 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Punting this one. The next one looks too far north at this time, too, but we’ll see. At least there are storms to track. 

This.

Pattern looks to remain active, with the gradient being somewhere around the area.  Throw enough stuff at the wall and something is bound to stick at some point, especially for those of us north of 40N.

[Hoosier]

31 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The element that needs to change is the 850 mb low from the initial Plains sfc low tracking so far north. Even though a stronger surface low eventually evolves farther east, the current forecast 850 mb low path will make it tough to get good snow farther south.

Plus the air mass is marginal to begin with, especially with southward extent. In addition, early maturing of the Plains low with a messy transfer and early dry slot intrusion (before considering how warm sector convection might interfere) look to cut into accums even where it does snow.

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Yeah, the progged 850 mb low track is not going to work for us.  Need an adjustment.

The 850 mb 0C line is already north of I-80 in our region even while the 850 mb low is back in Kansas.  While there is better antecedent cold than there was for the system that recently moved through, it's still pretty pathetic.  There probably won't be the classic "front end thump" with this anywhere, because it's simply too warm.  You start as snow, you'll likely be mostly snow.  You start as rain, you'll likely be mostly rain.

[Powerball]

8 hours ago, dmc76 said:

What is suggesting that ?

The general theme with storms at this range have been for them to trend weaker/SE (thus getting sheared apart) with time as models keep underestimating how progressive the flow is.

This system *COULD* defy that trend given the strength of the jet streak involved and the wave being more compact than others, which is why it does have big dog potential for places such as Milwaukee, Des Moines and Northern Michigan. But the wave following closely on its heels and the residual blocking/confluence across Ontario/Quebec are both concerning.

Regardless of the outcome, it's likely going to end up being an underwhelming storm for majority of folks on here.

[hawkeye_wx]

It's always fun to go from middle of the heavy band to little or nothing in 24 hours.

[Radtechwxman]

#torch

[Baum]

33 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

#torch

your local forecast:

WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
RAIN IN THE EVENING, THEN RAIN LIKELY WITH  
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE  
MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.    
THURSDAY  
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE  
MORNING. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.  

[Radtechwxman]

Just now, Baum said:

your local forecast:

WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
RAIN IN THE EVENING, THEN RAIN LIKELY WITH  
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE  
MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.    
THURSDAY  
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE  
MORNING. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.  

Yep not expecting anything. Story of this winter so far. Lol

[chuckster2012]

5 hours ago, sbnwx85 said:

Punting this one. The next one looks too far north at this time, too, but we’ll see. At least there are storms to track. 

They all look way too

far north for me for the rest of the month at least.

[Baum]

27 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Yep not expecting anything. Story of this winter so far. Lol

I'm not sure your area was ever in the game here. But a torch for the Wednesday/ Thursday time period is an exaggeration per your current forecast. Slightly above average with a good chance of rain might be more realistic, 

[Radtechwxman]

21 minutes ago, Baum said:

I'm not sure your area was ever in the game here. But a torch for the Wednesday/ Thursday time period is an exaggeration per your current forecast. Slightly above average with a good chance of rain might be more realistic, 

I don't think you picked up on my sarcasm sir. Lol. I know my area was never really in play. At best looked like rain/snow mix ending in light snow accumulation. But I was joking with torch because latest runs look mostly like a miserable cold rain. 

[hawkeye_wx]

00z Euro says Minneapolis bulls-eye yet again.  Unreal.

[cyclone77]

14 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

00z Euro says Minneapolis bulls-eye yet again.  Unreal.

 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

5 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

00z Euro says Minneapolis bulls-eye yet again.  Unreal.

Hey we are getting 0.50” of rain today, we need this. 

[Baum]

observation: The Milwaukee NWS office has perhaps the most bland AFD write ups I have ever seen. Perhaps it's from being mesmerized by staring out the window  at the palm trees in the perpetual 33 and cloudy climate of their tropical paradise.

[roardog]

Sorry Minnesota posters but today will probably start the SE and weaker trend. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

3 hours ago, roardog said:

Sorry Minnesota posters but today will probably start the SE and weaker trend. 

Have no pity on us, we’ve had an A grade winter here. Let’s spread the wealth.