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January 15-16 2023 Storm Potential


Baroclinic Zone
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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The Blue could certainly be an issue lol. 
I think all your points are correct and throw in there was zero mention of freezing rain in any local, media , or NWS outlet last night that no one had any idea. Even me the weenie had no idea until I stepped outside to run . This was a recipe for disaster .

And it's really freezing drizzle, which is harder to forecast and more dangerous for accretion. 

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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The Blue could certainly be an issue lol. 
I think all your points are correct and throw in there was zero mention of freezing rain in any local, media , or NWS outlet last night that no one had any idea. Even me the weenie had no idea until I stepped outside to run. This was a recipe for disaster .

Variety of items are allowing or allowed this to occur; moist / damp near surface air layer; no meaningful drying late yesterday or overnight; apparent condensation frost / dew on some roads; hard to detect drizzle / light rain producing processes and borderline cold road surfaces?  Tremendous variations in road surfaces across relatively short distances which gave many drivers a false sense of security...  Last night's RGEM did suggest some possible troubles, but had literally no other model support...  

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16 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Variety of items are allowing or allowed this to occur; moist / damp near surface air layer; no meaningful drying late yesterday or overnight; apparent condensation frost / dew on some roads; hard to detect drizzle / light rain producing processes and borderline cold road surfaces?  Tremendous variations in road surfaces across relatively short distances which gave many drivers a false sense of security...  Last night's RGEM did suggest some possible troubles, but had literally no other model support...  

Just a bevy of things came together. There is still a solid mix of tiny flakes and freezing drizzle falling now at 27. I think the hills may have helped provide a bit of lift as well . Traffic thru Town is a disaster with Tr highway closed. Happens everytime they shut 84 here. Weekends make it worse with all the travelers. All out of state plates .. learning about good old hick town Tolland . It is gridlock right now down 74

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m still not really feeling this. Too many things could go wrong. 

I’d be pretty surprised if anyone got more than 2 or 3 inches. Most will prob just get a C-1” type deal. You want solid lift for at least 6 hours if we’re talking plowable and most guidance is keeping the goods offshore. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I’d be pretty surprised if anyone got more than 2 or 3 inches. Most will prob just get a C-1” type deal. You want solid lift for at least 6 hours if we’re talking plowable and most guidance is keeping the goods offshore. 

Not to mention temps are tied to lift too. Whole thing is a disorganized mess. I hope to be surprised, but my gut is meh.

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m still not really feeling this. Too many things could go wrong. 

Yeah...never have been myself.   The situational synopsis is basically the same.  Historically these backing occluded core wrapped gyres are both over sold in model QPF plumes (...verified to have been the case), but there are physical reasons to go lower.  

There are rare events, but with no way to know if this is one of those...  I'd almost argue that relative to this sort of phenomenon, exceeding  3 inches is rarer.  ..I'd also be suspect of west penetration, too

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