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January 15-16 2023 Storm Potential


Baroclinic Zone
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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I enjoyed the 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation.

Well it's 0% because they get to make the call on whether it's tropical or not. :lol:

Strictly speaking I would say it's a decidedly non-zero percent chance that it is subtropical. 

Right :lol: 

Not to sound like some of the yahoos on the board, but you can bank that some slop early in the 2023 season will get named while this one is quietly sent to the historical trash heap. 

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, hence "reasonable compromise" 

It was too robust with QPF, but it was also better continuity, consistently west of other guidance where that seemed to do okay. So we trade off in disappointing amounts for actually getting something/anything to happen in 2022-2023

Just my take - doesn't have to be the best version.

How far off was QPF from the 3 or 4 run average on the EC? Or was it more the 3rd party clown maps that were off?

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47 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I don't like to use that word in general around here because it evokes 1998, but coupled with words like major the messaging can get out of control quickly. 

We'll see how it plays out Downeast, but with a forecast of 0.5-0.75" flat ice I could live with significant ice storm. Major? That's like 1" radial (so more like 1.5" flat).

There was a wicked wedge up there around 925. Probably quite a bit of sleet contamination overnight into this morning. Temps also get kinda borderline today to max accretion across Downeast ME. 

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4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

wunderground can be pretty good at times, often cutting or raising accums before the official forecast.  Now it says steady snow developing the afternoon and an inch.  Looking at radar, its coming.

That forecast gets some hourly high res influence in the short term (IBM Graf), so it can sometimes align with radar trends. 

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7 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

There was a wicked wedge up there around 925. Probably quite a bit of sleet contamination overnight into this morning. Temps also get kinda borderline today to max accretion across Downeast ME. 

The most difficult thing about forecasting ice is that it's such a narrow variable space to maintain that as the dominant ptype. I typically lean heavy on sleet because of that.

The problem I'm having with some of the forecasts I'm seeing is like for BGR: Roughly over the rest of the event there a forecast of 1 inch snow, 1 inch sleet, and 0.33 inches ice - off 1 inch QPF. 

If you take conservative ratios of 2:1 sleet, 10:1 snow, and 0.7:1 FZRA, that's already over 1" QPF. I just don't think there's enough QPF for all these things to happen, either sleet robs from FZRA or vice versa.

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000
NOUS41 KBOX 161529
PNSBOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-RIZ001>008-170329-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1029 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023

...SNOWFALL REPORTS...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Provider

...Connecticut...

...Hartford County...
Suffield Depot 6.0 WNW       0.5 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
4 N Enfield                  0.5 in    0512 AM 01/16   Trained Spotter
North Granby 1.3 ENE         0.3 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
1 SSW Vernon                 0.2 in    0730 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Bradley AP                   0.2 in    0700 AM 01/16   ASOS
Enfield 1.5 SE               0.2 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
West Hartford 1.1 NNE        0.1 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS

...Tolland County...
Staffordville                0.5 in    0500 AM 01/16   COOP
1 NE Somers                  0.4 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Central Somers 0.3 N         0.4 in    0600 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Somersville 0.2 ENE          0.2 in    0745 AM 01/16   COCORAHS

...Massachusetts...

...Barnstable County...
East Falmouth 0.7 NW         3.7 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Falmouth 3.1 NNW             3.1 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Waquoit 0.6 SSW              2.0 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Mashpee 4.6 S                1.5 in    0637 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
East Sandwich                1.4 in    0830 AM 01/16   COOP
3 ESE Sandwich               1.4 in    0659 PM 01/15   NWS Employee
5 WNW Barnstable             1.2 in    0100 PM 01/15   NWS Employee
South Dennis 1.0 NW          0.2 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS

...Bristol County...
Acushnet                     2.0 in    0600 AM 01/16   Amateur Radio
1 W Taunton AP               1.5 in    1020 PM 01/15   Amateur Radio
2 SSE New Bedford            1.4 in    0630 AM 01/16   Trained Spotter
Fairhaven 2.2 ESE            0.8 in    0855 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Westport 6.6 SSE             0.5 in    0800 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Norton 0.8 S                 0.5 in    0915 PM 01/15   COCORAHS
Dighton 3.3 NNW              0.4 in    0800 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Dartmouth 2.5 SSW            0.4 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
NWS Boston/Norton            0.3 in    0700 AM 01/16   COOP
Somerset 2.3 NNE             0.2 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Norton                       0.2 in    0711 PM 01/15   Official NWS Obs

...Dukes County...
Vineyard Haven 0.8 WSW       0.5 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
West Tisbury                 0.5 in    0633 AM 01/16   Amateur Radio

...Essex County...
North Andover 0.3 NW         3.5 in    0800 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Newburyport 1.3 WNW          3.5 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Topsfield                    3.4 in    0908 AM 01/16   Public
Newbury                      3.3 in    0830 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
1 SE Haverhill               3.0 in    0755 AM 01/16   Trained Spotter
Middleton 1.4 SSW            2.9 in    0800 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
2 NW Peabody                 2.5 in    0855 AM 01/16   Amateur Radio
Groveland 1.2 NE             2.5 in    0831 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Nahant 0.4 N                 2.5 in    0730 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
West Newbury 1.1 ESE         2.5 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Andover 0.6 E                2.5 in    0500 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Beverly Coop                 2.4 in    0830 AM 01/16   COOP
Boxford 2.4 S                2.4 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Rowley                       2.3 in    0900 AM 01/16   Public
1 N Methuen                  2.0 in    0753 AM 01/16   Trained Spotter
Amesbury 2.6 WSW             2.0 in    0729 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
1 W Gloucester               2.0 in    0620 AM 01/16   Trained Spotter
Rockport 1.0 E               1.0 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS

...Franklin County...
Conway 0.9 SW                3.0 in    0800 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Greenfield                   2.5 in    0600 AM 01/16   COOP
Buckland 1.8 ESE             2.0 in    0800 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Bernardston 1.0 SW           2.0 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Sunderland                   1.8 in    0700 AM 01/16   COOP
Colrain 3.7 WNW              0.6 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Shutesbury 2.9 SW            0.5 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
New Salem 3.1 S              0.3 in    0900 AM 01/16   COCORAHS

...Hampden County...
Westfield 2.8 SE             0.7 in    0600 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
2 SE West Springfield        0.5 in    0823 AM 01/16   Amateur Radio
Hampden 2.0 NW               0.4 in    0800 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Agawam 1.1 SSW               0.2 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS

...Hampshire County...
1 ESE Plainfield             3.0 in    0810 AM 01/16   Trained Spotter
Williamsburg 1.2 WSW         3.0 in    0630 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Westhampton 1.8 SW           2.5 in    0805 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Northampton 0.4 S            1.3 in    0850 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Easthampton 1.0 E            1.2 in    0810 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Amherst                      0.9 in    0715 AM 01/16   COOP
Florence 1.9 SW              0.5 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS

...Middlesex County...
Littleton 2.8 NNW            3.0 in    0735 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
2 SSE Dunstable              2.7 in    1200 AM 01/16   Public
Billerica 2.3 NNW            2.5 in    0830 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
2 SSW Reading                2.5 in    0805 AM 01/16   Trained Spotter
1 WNW Pepperell              2.5 in    0745 AM 01/16   Trained Spotter
2 SW Tewksbury               2.5 in    0730 AM 01/16   Trained Spotter
Ayer                         2.5 in    0610 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
2 SE Carlisle                2.2 in    0630 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Winchester 0.7 SE            2.1 in    0750 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
2 E Acton                    2.1 in    0700 AM 01/16   Amateur Radio
Westford                     2.0 in    0800 AM 01/16   Amateur Radio
Maynard 0.7 ESE              1.9 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Acton 1.3 SW                 1.8 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Lexington 0.6 SW             1.5 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Framingham 2.0 NNE           1.5 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Sudbury 3.6 W                1.5 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Reading 1.2 N                1.5 in    0600 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Natick 1.9 NNE               1.3 in    0800 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Melrose 0.5 NE               1.2 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Hudson 0.5 SSE               1.2 in    0615 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Melrose                      1.0 in    0815 AM 01/16   Trained Spotter
Sherborn 1.1 NW              1.0 in    0705 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Medford 1.2 W                1.0 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Hopkinton                    0.9 in    0855 AM 01/16   Public
Stow                         0.8 in    0905 AM 01/16   Broadcast Media

...Norfolk County...
1 SSW Walpole                2.1 in    0930 AM 01/16   Public
2 SSW Norwood                1.2 in    0840 AM 01/16   Amateur Radio
1 ESE Randolph               1.2 in    0558 AM 01/16   Trained Spotter
Blue Hill Coop               1.1 in    0700 AM 01/16   COOP
Braintree 1.5 SE             0.8 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Foxborough 3.1 E             0.2 in    0710 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Norwood 1.3 NW               0.2 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS

...Plymouth County...
Kingston 3.3 WNW             3.7 in    0600 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
3 NNW Wareham                3.0 in    0830 AM 01/16   Public
Whitman                      2.6 in    0951 AM 01/16   Trained Spotter
Hingham 0.8 ESE              2.6 in    0804 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Carver 2.3 E                 2.5 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
East Bridgewater             2.5 in    0955 PM 01/15   Trained Spotter
Marshfield 1.5 NNW           2.3 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Wareham 5.6 NE               2.2 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Bridgewater                  1.0 in    0720 AM 01/16   COOP
Rochester                    1.0 in    0700 AM 01/16   COOP

...Suffolk County...
Logan AP                     3.4 in    0936 AM 01/16   ASOS
Chelsea 0.8 N                3.0 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Jamacia Plain                0.9 in    0800 AM 01/16   COOP

...Worcester County...
Ashburnham                   2.7 in    0700 AM 01/16   COOP
1 SE Hubbardston             2.3 in    0710 AM 01/16   Trained Spotter
1 NE Lunenburg               2.0 in    0935 AM 01/16   Amateur Radio
Fitchburg 1.6 SSW            2.0 in    0715 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
1 ESE Fitchburg              2.0 in    0715 AM 01/16   Trained Spotter
Ashburnham North             2.0 in    0700 AM 01/16   COOP
Westminster 0.6 WSW          1.9 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Sterling                     1.8 in    0700 AM 01/16   Trained Spotter
Northborough 2.3 N           1.5 in    0800 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Berlin 1.3 WSW               1.4 in    0736 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Barre 1.4 NNE                1.2 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Warren 2.4 WSW               1.1 in    0715 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
1 ENE Oakham                 1.0 in    0757 AM 01/16   Trained Spotter
Milford                      1.0 in    0700 AM 01/16   COOP
Worcester 1.6 SE             0.7 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Auburn 2.6 SW                0.5 in    0800 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Holden 0.9 SSE               0.5 in    0630 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Athol 2.8 NNE                0.3 in    0741 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Douglas 1.9 NNE              0.3 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Worcester AP                 0.3 in    1150 PM 01/15   ASOS
Southbridge                  0.1 in    0700 AM 01/16   COOP

...Rhode Island...

...Newport County...
Little Compton 1.7 NW        0.3 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
Tiverton 4.4 SSE             0.1 in    0632 AM 01/16   COCORAHS

...Providence County...
Greenville 0.7 NNW           0.1 in    0700 AM 01/16   COCORAHS
&&
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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

The most difficult thing about forecasting ice is that it's such a narrow variable space to maintain that as the dominant ptype. I typically lean heavy on sleet because of that.

The problem I'm having with some of the forecasts I'm seeing is like for BGR: Roughly over the rest of the event there a forecast of 1 inch snow, 1 inch sleet, and 0.33 inches ice - off 1 inch QPF. 

If you take conservative ratios of 2:1 sleet, 10:1 snow, and 0.7:1 FZRA, that's already over 1" QPF. I just don't think there's enough QPF for all these things to happen, either sleet robs from FZRA or vice versa.

Every time I've taken LE from a purely sleet event, the ratio has been ~3:1.

Reported 0.03" to cocorahs with trace accretion and a few pingers.  Since then we've probably had twice the LE in ZR/IP with 0.1-0.2" of the pellets.  Western edge effect.  (Though some bright echoes are moving our way.)

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