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January 15-16 2023 Storm Potential


Baroclinic Zone
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39 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Yeah, my gripe is when there is a dry slot or at least saturation that mimics a dry slot. The 06z Euro had over 0.33" QPF through 18z today at PYM. Clearly that didn't happen, but would certainly drive some big modeled snow totals. 

yea definitely.

I also believe the combination of showery precip with temps oscillating above freezing further worsened the issue. Persistent Moderate rates in banding would sufficiently cool the column, with Td’s where they are; but once rates diminish surface temps creep back above freezing, melting ensues, until the next shower moves in. 

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49 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Yeah, my gripe is when there is a dry slot or at least saturation that mimics a dry slot. The 06z Euro had over 0.33" QPF through 18z today at PYM. Clearly that didn't happen, but would certainly drive some big modeled snow totals. 

Why experience comes in to play.  Kudos to BOX.

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