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January 15-16 2023 Storm Potential


Baroclinic Zone
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Forecast soundings were showing rolling waves of lift in the DGZ, so a ragged radar does not surprise me one bit. This band more or less should hold together through 1 to 4 AM, so once the sun lowers in the sky snow will start to stick more readily. 

It really is a perfect storm for things models handle poorly. They don't do well estimating QPF when there is dry air aloft. They don't do well estimating snowfall in marginal environments. 

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

Forecast soundings were showing rolling waves of lift in the DGZ, so a ragged radar does not surprise me one bit. This band more or less should hold together through 1 to 4 AM, so once the sun lowers in the sky snow will start to stick more readily. 

It really is a perfect storm for things models handle poorly. They don't do well estimating QPF when there is dry air aloft. They don't do well estimating snowfall in marginal environments. 

Felt this way for days.  Been trying to be optimistic like @WinterWolf wants me to be.  I feel icky now.

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