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January 15-16 2023 Storm Potential


Baroclinic Zone
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Is very much of this even reaching the ground down there ?

I'm wondering because as I've driven around town up here in Ayer, looking S, there's virga plumes ...I'm wondering if much of this under the western edge is a virga event, or will turn out that way. That's not uncommon for model error in backed deals, to see/think virga is ground materialized. 

This should be a great sunset day, by the way. 

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This thing really was a head-fake in every aspect.

Gloucester rips for 15 min, but then flurries for the next hour…

The patchy-ness look to the radar is indicative of a storm winding down; it’s just doing so at its closest approach. The model qpf output had misleading looks of banding features setting up and intensifying along the coast. Instead it looks like we have scattered snow showers pin-wheeling through with most decaying once near land. Scattered snow showers don’t stack up. So those clown maps clownin’. 

 

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3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

This thing really was a head-fake in every aspect.

Gloucester rips for 15 min, but then flurries for the next hour…

The patchy-ness look to the radar is indicative of a storm winding down; it’s just doing so at its closest approach. The model qpf output had misleading looks of banding features setting up and intensifying along the coast. Instead it looks like we have scattered snow showers pin-wheeling through with most decaying once near land. Scattered snow showers don’t stack up. So those clown maps clownin’. 

 

Bingo.

Glad I didn't fall for this head-fake and start spending hours blogging over bands of non accumulating snowshowers.

Winter 2022-2023 #bendover

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Bingo.

Glad I didn't fall for this head-fake and start spending hours blogging over bands of non accumulating snowshowers.

Winter 2022-2023 #bendover

Yea once again: for most it’s a lot of snow obs with very little to show for it on the ground.

Mid coast to DE Maine maybe cashes in with 6”+ but I haven’t looked at it in any detail to wager one way or the other. 

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Jay woke up and is trying to infuse some forum energy into what, up to now, has been MEH for accum.  

Bob knows me well. Plus I love weird events. And this is beyond weird. I think it's still backing in, which means the bands are a little progressive, but someone just off the coast away from ocean will get a nice surprise here when these bands stall out and ppl wetbulb down. 

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