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January 15-16 2023 Storm Potential


Baroclinic Zone
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7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Took about an hour but finally coming down heavily and accumulating on grass and cartops lol. Fighting the warm ground a bit. 

I think a met mentioned there was a DGZ growth issue for a while since what was falling didn't match the radar. looks like it's better saturated now

 

You’re not extremely far from the radar, but with 30-40kt 10m winds you’re going to have some drift below the beam too. So what’s reaching the ground at your place is a little to your NNE at beam level.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Euro hit quite a few spots up here hard too, One thing i will say, There's going to be some pretty large model bust each side of the totals one way or another.

I buy some of the Cape/SE MA totals, but otherwise there's just too much contamination with sleet for these modeled snow amounts to be real. Any time steps with sleet dominating are going to be like 3 to 5 times too high in snow amounts. 

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5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I buy some of the Cape/SE MA totals, but otherwise there's just too much contamination with sleet for these modeled snow amounts to be real. Any time steps with sleet dominating are going to be like 3 to 5 times too high in snow amounts. 

I think where you have the map totals up here are very reasonable, Your bringing in moisture off the atlantic with some warmer air too, So that right there is more of a IP signal and even some ZR.

 

StormTotalSnowWeb1_ME.jpg

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I think where you have the map totals up here are very reasonable, Your bringing in moisture off the atlantic with some warmer air too, So that right there is more of a IP signal and even some ZR.

 

StormTotalSnowWeb1_ME.jpg

I think we need to deep six that 4-6" area, or at least shove it way in and up. My ideal might be to take all our totals down a category (i.e. 4-6 becomes 3-4 etc). 

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I think we need to deep six that 4-6" area, or at least shove it way in and up. My ideal might be to take all our totals down a category (i.e. 4-6 becomes 3-4 etc). 

Its like the models try to firehose the mid coast region, Foothills mtns northern maine would have a better chance at snow if it gets up there.

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