January 12th 2023 Enhanced Severe Threat

[WxSynopsisDavid]

11 minutes ago, kayman said:

From The Weather Channel  App: https://weather.com/storms/severe/video/drone-footage-from-selma-alabama-reveals-extent-of-tornado-damage?pl=pl-latest-forecasts

Tornadic damage in Selma is the catastrophic with whole neighborhoods destroyed

Definitely a very bad situation for Selma. I wouldn’t use “catastrophic” to describe that damage though. Appears to be EF2/EF3 as there’s a lack of completely destroyed and slabbed buildings. A lot of interior/exterior walls still standing. For that reason I highly doubt it gets higher than a weak EF3 when survey teams assess the damage. Very fortunate this thing didn’t hit in April with a more amplified jet and rich gulf moisture. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Pretty epic outbreak for January. Selma damage doesn’t look above EF3 but that’s a bad hit and it doesn’t matter if your house is totaled, slabbed or walls still standing, it’s still totaled. Hopefully deaths and injuries are at a minimum 

[LakeNormanStormin]

Tornado warned storm came through my area of North Mecklenburg around 6:30

Pea-sized hail, 50-60 mph gusts, and torrential rain

Lots of branches down

Rotation got stronger as it passed to our east

[Calderon]

1 hour ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Definitely a very bad situation for Selma. I wouldn’t use “catastrophic” to describe that damage though. Appears to be EF2/EF3 as there’s a lack of completely destroyed and slabbed buildings. A lot of interior/exterior walls still standing. For that reason I highly doubt it gets higher than a weak EF3 when survey teams assess the damage. Very fortunate this thing didn’t hit in April with a more amplified jet and rich gulf moisture. 

Problem is in Selma is that you can see a lot of subpar, older, and/or poor construction and a good majority of homes will probably be totaled. 

[LithiaWx]

3 hours ago, LithiaWx said:

Mother in law in locust grove can’t get to her house due to downed trees.  She isn’t sure if her house was hit or not yet.  

She made it home and her house is ok.  The damage in Locust grove/ Jenkinsburg is pretty decent.  Based on what I’ve heard probably EF-1+ but curious what the experts see during the survey.  Lots of trees down and some damage to buildings.  

[nwohweather]

   Mesoscale Discussion 0055
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023
 
   Areas affected...central AL
 
   Concerning...Tornado Watch 18...
 
   Valid 121900Z - 122000Z
 
   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 18 continues.
 
   SUMMARY...A strong to intense tornado (~EF3) is likely ongoing
   across central AL and after tornado demise, a wind-damage risk will
   likely continue into east-central AL.
 
   DISCUSSION...KBMX radar imagery shows an intense low-level
   mesocyclone moving through an adequately moist/moderately buoyant
   airmass across central AL. SPC data analytics indicates a
   strong/intense tornado is likely ongoing across Autauga County, AL. 
   The area VAD/s show large hodographs with 300 m2/s2 0-0.5 km
   effective SRH. The strong shear/buoyancy will likely aid in
   sustaining the supercell after eventual tornado demise once the
   squall line overtakes the supercell. Nonetheless, a significant
   wind-damage threat and some tornado risk will likely continue into
   eastern AL through the mid afternoon.
 
   ..Smith.. 01/12/2023
 
   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
 
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...
 
   LAT...LON 32638663 32998588 33028569 32888557 32778559 32488627
               32508662 32638663 
 

It’s so cool how they post these live now. To say look there’s an EF3-4 barreling through as we speak really gives clarity to all

[WxSynopsisDavid]

12 hours ago, nwohweather said:

It’s so cool how they post these live now. To say look there’s an EF3-4 barreling through as we speak really gives clarity to all

I remember back during the 2020 Easter Outbreak they posted one of these for the Bassfield, MS violent tornado. It gave me goosebumps/chills to read it.

“Confirmed large, deadly violent tornado. Likely ongoing EF5 in progress”

For me that was the first time seeing a Mesoscale Discussion used in that manor for a violent tornado. They actually noted in the text for the MD that the gate-to-gate signature on radar was maxing out with velocities on the higher-end spectrum well exceeding 200mph. 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

15 hours ago, Calderon said:

Problem is in Selma is that you can see a lot of subpar, older, and/or poor construction and a good majority of homes will probably be totaled. 

Exactly, I didn’t mean to take away from that perspective. That was one of the issues during the 2011 Super Outbreak that was noted by the survey teams and engineers. The construction throughout MS, AL, GA was weak and poorly constructed. Sad when you think about it. But of course, what isn’t demolished or completely destroyed will have to be bulldozed. The only point I noted was that I thought the terminology “catastrophic” was too much. It seems like every outbreak that happens now the media and enthusiasts through that terminology around frequently. Should be reserved terminology, only used for the Joplin/Moore/Birmingham type tornado events.

[kayman]

https://wvtm13.com/article/deadly-alabama-tornado-on-ground-for-over-80-miles-autauga-coosa-tallapoosa/42575822

80+ miles in length and confirmed EF-3