John1122 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Big time thunder here. You don't often see tornado watches/severe warnings butted up to winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories, but we do seem to get them on occasion. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 Wind picking up here slowly. hrrr is extremely unimpressed for Unicoi county. Barely gives me a dusting.. it's not the best on qpf outside 12hrs or so. But it's got me very conservative this afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Big time thunder here. You don't often see tornado watches/severe warnings butted up to winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories, but we do seem to get them on occasion.The lightning is incredible here. Pea size hail for about 30 seconds. The line is still 45 min away. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 12 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Wind picking up here slowly. hrrr is extremely unimpressed for Unicoi county. Barely gives me a dusting.. it's not the best on qpf outside 12hrs or so. But it's got me very conservative this afternoon. It's not been great at any range this year tbh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 JKL says it best in their AFD this morning. The favored NWF areas will see snow, perhaps a lot of it. Other areas will probably need at least a WWA based on where bands off Lake Michigan set up. If you get one, you're liable to get a few inches, if not, dusting to maybe an inch in their CWA. Right now, they just have no idea where that band may be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 TYS just gusted to 69mph. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 I put this in the main pattern thread, but it probably needs to be here as well. To tag onto what @John1122said earlier... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Wow, a tornado warning has been issued for Jefferson County. Stay safe, folks. Pretty intense storms so far. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Just had a tornado warning issued for Greene Co 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 I see MRX just took even their less than .05 in chance of snow OUT of my area in West Knox. It does seem like we have a better chance of getting a stray band in NWF events when we have a slightly more northern component but who knows? It is hard to get any accumulation in these situations when you are right in the middle of the valley. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Thunder IMBY @Holston_River_Rambler 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 For posterity....and why following the weather is sometimes boring.............and sometimes not. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 14 minutes ago, bearman said: I see MRX just took even their less than .05 in chance of snow OUT of my area in West Knox. It does seem like we have a better chance of getting a stray band in NWF events when we have a slightly more northern component but who knows? It is hard to get any accumulation in these situations when you are right in the middle of the valley. They just use the model NMB or whatever it's called and pretty much stick to their guns, regardless of actual falling weather. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 I do expect a WWA for Cumberland and Fentress counties from the NWS Nashville office. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Thunder, lightning, torrential rain, and wind gusts over 40 mph in Colonial Heights. Something wicked this way comes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Likewise, lots of lightning, thunder, wind, and even a Tornado warning here in Hamblen Co. this afternoon. Thunder is still rumbling in the distance off and on. Reminds me really of a summertime MCS where the main line comes through and you just keep getting occasional lightning and thunder for an hour or two later. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Time to fire up the 10 day lightning/thunder snow theory. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 So, did the 12z Euro get the thunder in the mountains message? Indeed. Reel that baby in! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Haven’t been able to post since the storms but I must say that was one of the most intense squall line I’ve seen in a long time. There’s trees down everywhere in Knox Co. One thing you don’t see very often is a squall line that intensified after it came off the plateau. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Haven’t been able to post since the storms but I must say that was one of the most intense squall line I’ve seen in a long time. There’s trees down everywhere in Knox Co. One thing you don’t see very often is a squall line that intensified after it came off the plateau. . I thought the same thing. That line meant business as it came through! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Nashville goes with the WWA for their Plateau areas. They mentioned the Eastern Plateau as being favored. Nothing here from MRX yet, I'll doubt they issue anything for my area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Something noticed on the models last few runs, (outside the Cherohala Skyway, Monroe Co usually doesn't do well in NW flow events..so haven't been following that closely). The Euro/Canadian/RGEM usually pick up on the elevation change fairly well and don't show much for Tellico/Sweetwater/Athens area, but this event they have the 1" line creeping into those areas. Highly unusual, and something to keep an eye on. If they are picking up on something, may be a surprise bust high in the central valley even. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8283 El Nino Baby Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Two lines of storms have come through thus far and this last one lining up looks to be the strongest yet if it holds together. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 The NAM and 3k NAM are very determined for my area. I suspect they aren't handling this well. LeConte probably won't get 6 feet of snow either. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 22 minutes ago, John1122 said: The NAM and 3k NAM are very determined for my area. I suspect they aren't handling this well. LeConte probably won't get 6 feet of snow either. Exactly. They're showing way more than typical elevation differences. Could be there factoring boundary layer heavier than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 13, 2023 Author Share Posted January 13, 2023 Hard for me to get onboard with the hrrr being so dry. I feel like this one may slip through our hands even for NW areas. Of course the tip top peaks will score but hrrr keeps most areas with a dusting at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 If Mt Leconte would donate a couple of inches of snow for MBY(from its 600 inches of predicted snow), that would be good. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 3 hours ago, TellicoWx said: Something noticed on the models last few runs, (outside the Cherohala Skyway, Monroe Co usually doesn't do well in NW flow events..so haven't been following that closely). The Euro/Canadian/RGEM usually pick up on the elevation change fairly well and don't show much for Tellico/Sweetwater/Athens area, but this event they have the 1" line creeping into those areas. Highly unusual, and something to keep an eye on. If they are picking up on something, may be a surprise bust high in the central valley even. It looks like the RGEM is picking up the "streamers" a bit better than the NAM, which shows no real evidence of them on the snow maps. Now, even if the RGEM is correct on some streamers bursting through the valley, where they set up is anyone's guess. Places could get blanked, while others could get a dusting to an inch. These things are very hard to predict. NAM seems convinced this is a typical elevation event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Won’t be surprised if MRX is having to scramble in the 11th hour for counties that border Ky and Virginia. Maybe even on the plateau down towards the southern Valley. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 It looks like the RGEM is picking up the "streamers" a bit better than the NAM, which shows no real evidence of them on the snow maps. Now, even if the RGEM is correct on some streamers bursting through the valley, where they set up is anyone's guess. Places could get blanked, while others could get a dusting to an inch. These things are very hard to predict. NAM seems convinced this is a typical elevation event. That’s what stinks with these streamers is one might be 5 miles wide but there’s 10 miles between it and the next one. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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