BackpackingWeather Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Hey guys long time lurker (thanks to Powell over on Volquest) but first post. I do a ton of winter backpacking (and sometimes showshoeing) in the smokies and have always wondered how accurate the website ATweather.org is. They use data from NOAA point and click forecasts. Does 3-5” tonight, 8-12” tomorrow, 8-12” tomorrow night and 1-3” Saturday morning sound accurate for this weekend above 5,000 feet or way overblown? Full disclosure…I hope it’s accurate ha!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Heading up to Gatlinburg from Atlanta thru Saturday morning. Staying at one of the condos by Ober that’s at around 2900 feet. Hoping for 4-6” at that elevation but I’m wary of disappointment. We will see! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 17 minutes ago, BackpackingWeather said: Hey guys long time lurker (thanks to Powell over on Volquest) but first post. I do a ton of winter backpacking (and sometimes showshoeing) in the smokies and have always wondered how accurate the website ATweather.org is. They use data from NOAA point and click forecasts. Does 3-5” tonight, 8-12” tomorrow, 8-12” tomorrow night and 1-3” Saturday morning sound accurate for this weekend above 5,000 feet or way overblown? Full disclosure…I hope it’s accurate ha! . I'd say that could happen at LeConte and around it. It's the best location for upslope in the entire southern Appalachians. I've seen it get 24-36 inches from upslope before but I'm not sure it will this time, but it's entirely possible. Other areas above 5000 aren't as favorable, according to how they are situated. Honestly it's really above 6000 that seems to be the most prone. I've seen LeConte get 20 inches of upslope but Newfound Gap gets only 5-6. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 How many rounds of thunder and rain did the TN Valley have today? 3? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 This is the actual LeConte NWS point forecast. It's for 6499 feet as close to LeConte as you can click. Tonight Rain and snow likely before 10pm, then snow. Patchy fog. Low around 22. Breezy, with a west wind around 25 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Friday Snow. Patchy fog before 1pm. High near 25. Blustery, with a northwest wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Friday Night Snow before 10pm, then snow showers, mainly between 10pm and 4am. Patchy fog before 3am, then patchy fog after 5am. Low around 15. Wind chill values between -2 and 6. Blustery, with a north wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Saturday A chance of snow showers before 10am, then a chance of flurries between 10am and 1pm. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 22. Wind chill values between -3 and 7. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BackpackingWeather Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 This is the actual LeConte NWS point forecast. It's for 6499 feet as close to LeConte as you can click. Tonight Rain and snow likely before 10pm, then snow. Patchy fog. Low around 22. Breezy, with a west wind around 25 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Friday Snow. Patchy fog before 1pm. High near 25. Blustery, with a northwest wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Friday Night Snow before 10pm, then snow showers, mainly between 10pm and 4am. Patchy fog before 3am, then patchy fog after 5am. Low around 15. Wind chill values between -2 and 6. Blustery, with a north wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Saturday A chance of snow showers before 10am, then a chance of flurries between 10am and 1pm. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 22. Wind chill values between -3 and 7. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.Thanks, John. Looks like “atweather.org” has pretty inflated snow totals. Either way I have a fairly high level of confidence that the upper ridges in the smokies may approach a foot with this system. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Just now, BackpackingWeather said: Thanks, John. Looks like “atweather.org” has pretty inflated snow totals. Either way I have a fairly high level of confidence that the upper ridges in the smokies may approach a foot with this system. . Honestly, the point forecasts aren't all that great a lot of the time either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BackpackingWeather Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Honestly, the point forecasts aren't all that great a lot of the time either. Do you have a recommendation for something else to use for relatively accurate mountain forecasts?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Just now, BackpackingWeather said: Do you have a recommendation for something else to use for relatively accurate mountain forecasts? . The best would probably be the zone forecast by county. Should be a Southeast Sevier, Southeast Blount etc. Those are or were written by actual Mets at one point and not computer generated. Even then, the mountain weather is very unpredictable and there's very few actual data points. That honestly goes for a lot of the area. Knowing your micro climates in East Tennessee is about as good a way as any to speculate on the forecast. For the Smokies the next 48 hours, extremely wintery, especially above 4000 feet is probably a good rule of thumb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BackpackingWeather Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 The best would probably be the zone forecast by county. Should be a Southeast Sevier, Southeast Blount etc. Those are or were written by actual Mets at one point and not computer generated. Even then, the mountain weather is very unpredictable and there's very few actual data points. That honestly goes for a lot of the area. Knowing your micro climates in East Tennessee is about as good a way as any to speculate on the forecast. For the Smokies the next 48 hours, extremely wintery, especially above 4000 feet is probably a good rule of thumb. Awesome. Thanks. I looked up the sevier smoky mountains and it appears to have the most accurate descriptions I’ve seen.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 @BackpackingWeather Here is a video I took several years ago at approx this location on Bullhead Trail: This was pretty early in to a NW flow event at about 5700 feet. The video is only in SD, so it doesn't do the conditions justice. The wind was gnarly. I've seen hip high drifts (3.5') on the AT near Mt Cammerer after one of these events. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 And when I say "early" I mean within 3 hours of it starting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BackpackingWeather Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 And when I say "early" I mean within 3 hours of it starting. This is great thanks! I’m heading to the Cammerer area on the AT tomorrow morning so this gives me hope. I live for backpacking in weather like this. Thanks to everyone for all of the help. I’m slowly learning…lol. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 When a CAM model (0z HRRR) streaks this heavily almost into Gwinnet Co, GA at that range...definitely peaks my attention level lol. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 @BackpackingWeather Here is a photo of one of the more photogenic drifts on the AT near Cammerer : And this is at a pretty low elevation on the trail up to the AT from Cosby: https://i.imgur.com/LRLnICP.mp4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BackpackingWeather Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 [mention=20204]BackpackingWeather[/mention] Here is a photo of one of the more photogenic drifts on the AT near Cammerer : And this is at a pretty low elevation on the trail up to the AT from Cosby:https://i.imgur.com/LRLnICP.mp4 You are making me one happy camper (erm…backpacker)! Thanks for all of the info. I haven’t experienced one of these NW flow events since I’ve been in Knoxville, so I’m looking forward to it!. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Interesting tweet from MRX… this feed looks like it’s on the Knox, Jefferson to Sevier Co lines. . 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 34 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Interesting tweet from MRX… this feed looks like it’s on the Knox, Jefferson to Sevier Co lines. . That will have to rise from about 800 feet to 3000ish as it moves right across my area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 2 hours ago, BackpackingWeather said: This is great thanks! I’m heading to the Cammerer area on the AT tomorrow morning so this gives me hope. I live for backpacking in weather like this. Thanks to everyone for all of the help. I’m slowly learning…lol . Have a Safe & fun adventure! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Still a light rain a few miles west of Gatlinburg at 2900’ 33.3 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Been pouring snow up here since about 4am, just now starting to accumulate. Some of the heaviest snowfall I've ever seen! 32° 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 10 minutes ago, Knoxtron said: Been pouring snow up here since about 4am, just now starting to accumulate. Some of the heaviest snowfall I've ever seen! 32° That's awesome! Still rain here. You're above 2000' now, if I remember correctly? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 13 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: That's awesome! Still rain here. You're above 2000' now, if I remember correctly? Yeah about 2100', radar isn't showing much over us even though it's still lightly snowing. Got a good dusting so far! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 That will have to rise from about 800 feet to 3000ish as it moves right across my area. Enjoy, send us some pictures . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Light Dusting NW of Crossville already. Nothing on radar. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Man these streamers mean business coming through Knox Co. almost white out conditions with 15mph winds. Unfortunately they only last for 10 minutes. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 For my sake I hope this is the streamer set up, I’m in a good spot. Puking it right now. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 13, 2023 Author Share Posted January 13, 2023 Daytime, temps above 32, warmer ground, and spotty nature of snowfall doesn't bode well for much accumulation throughout the day. Hopefully we have plenty of moisture tonight! 37 and rain here currently. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Nothing at 2900 feet next to Ober yet. Really banking on tonight and this afternoon being the good stuff. . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Nothing at 2900 feet next to Ober yet. Really banking on tonight and this afternoon being the good stuff. .This is déjà vu… don’t you go up there every year and it seems like a few years ago you got 4-6” in a NW flow? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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