fountainguy97 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Figured we can keep the main topic clean and talk about the weekend here. 18Z NAM tilted our trough much more neutral vs positive which is really helping to stack up significant qpf across the NW prone regions. Every tick more neutral will add to totals quietly. Even a good bit of moisture up to 700mb now. RGEM is on board as well. High mountains should see 6+ easily in a setup like this. Should see some thunder as well with temps in the upper 60s, DPs in the upper 50s, and Cape into the 500 range. Exciting weekend ahead! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 In for later! Thanks for the thread. Should be some fun amounts above 3000’ or those living in foothills communities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 @John1122the 18z 3k NAM was decent for your area I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrorr Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 What is the thinking for the lower foothills? I think we're at around 1500-2000' most places around Cooper Gap/Picture Pine in the Pleasant Mountain area of Citico. Is that too low for snow for this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 16 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: @John1122the 18z 3k NAM was decent for your area I think. It and the 12k are. Encouraging that MRX said this one was actually trending colder and that it should be all snow for everyone except possibly the southern areas. They mentioned advisories for my area and Southwest VA. They also mentioned the vorts Holston talked about earlier. These will have the potential why snow squalls that spread into the valley areas the way things look now. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, Maestrorr said: What is the thinking for the lower foothills? I think we're at around 1500-2000' most places around Cooper Gap/Picture Pine in the Pleasant Mountain area of Citico. Is that too low for snow for this one? How do you normally do in flow snow set ups? Higher is always better but you need to be in a favorable location for NW flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 KTRI could see an inch or so of accumulation. Sometimes these NW flow events can surprise and produce with enough lingering 700mb moisture in the Holston River Valley. That is if the EKY ranges and Clinch Mountain doesn't steal our bands. I'd imagine Holston Mountain, Shady Valley, Mountain City, Erwin and the Blue Ridge province areas like Roan Mountain, Boone, NC, etc. will get a 6+ thumping regardless. I don't think KTRI will get shut out, but I doubt anything more than an inch or two totals. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrorr Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 42 minutes ago, John1122 said: How do you normally do in flow snow set ups? Higher is always better but you need to be in a favorable location for NW flow. It's a new situation for us, so I'm not sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 How do you normally do in flow snow set ups? Higher is always better but you need to be in a favorable location for NW flow. Can we get an idea yet on wind direction? Does this look like a typical NW wind direction? I’m not in a good location for NW flow but a little more NNW helps me. I basically need my feed coming from the middle of Campbell Co. if it’s more from Scott Co I’m screwed. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Can we get an idea yet on wind direction? Does this look like a typical NW wind direction? I’m not in a good location for NW flow but a little more NNW helps me. I basically need my feed coming from the middle of Campbell Co. if it’s more from Scott Co I’m screwed. . Powell, not sure if this is what you are looking for, but you can see the banding which should indicate the winds. Winds are slightly more WNW prior to this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 Wow NAM even better at 500mb. This is a doozy. man closed off ULL at hr 51. This thing is cranking big time on NAM. Going to be some big totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Maps please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Powell, not sure if this is what you are looking for, but you can see the banding which should indicate the winds. Winds are slightly more WNW prior to this. Yes perfect. That streamer up in NE Tennessee is a good direction for me. Or I should say it’s a better flow that the alternative because NW flow is never good in the valley unless there’s a wave to work with. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Yes perfect. That streamer up in NE Tennessee is a good direction for me. Or I should say it’s a better flow that the alternative because NW flow is never good in the valley unless there’s a wave to work with. . That is 18z BTW. I doubt 0z changed by much in terms of wind direction. I am going to try to get up to the mountains(as far as I can safely anyway) to see it. I hope the ski resorts make out like bandits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 Let's keep this trend going. The more neutral and cutoff we can get the more moisture we will have to work with. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 RGEM follows suite with a cutoff trough just like NAM. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 hour ago, PowellVolz said: Can we get an idea yet on wind direction? Does this look like a typical NW wind direction? I’m not in a good location for NW flow but a little more NNW helps me. I basically need my feed coming from the middle of Campbell Co. if it’s more from Scott Co I’m screwed. . Pure NW flow per MRX. They noted near perfect 320 degrees wind direction. If we can hook up with Lake Michigan that could allow more widespread banding to move into the Central Valley of East Tennessee. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 5 hours ago, Maestrorr said: It's a new situation for us, so I'm not sure. NW flow tends to be like lake effect snow. You can rack up and a few miles away gets almost nothing. This will be an opportunity to learn more about your microclimate. East Tennessee has more than almost any place in the United States. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Add the GFS to the streamer party. NAM, RGEM, and GFS have all ramped up to start 00z. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 The 0z NAM nest and RGEM are looking really good for my area. I won't believe until I see it but I'm gonna hope they're right. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 The Canadian shows a great band from Lake Michigan all the way into my back yard. I got 7 inches in about 4 hours from one of those back about 15 or so years ago. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 I hope all of you in the favored areas get a hefty dose of snow! Please share pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 Models holding steady this morning. For my back yard NAM and HRRR both advertise an extreme cutoff with about an inch for me. Hoping to squeeze that out! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 NAM still adding to the totals at the end of the run mid day Sat. I am solidly in the blues according to these maps... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 that is hands down the best LeConte/ Clingman's NAMing I've ever seen 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Kinda weird how MRX doesn’t even like the plateau in this setup. Saying in their MFD, that the plateau will likely change back to rain Friday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Kinda weird how MRX doesn’t even like the plateau in this setup. Saying in their MFD, that the plateau will likely change back to rain Friday morning. It's odd. Modeling didn't change but that's literally the exact opposite of what the previous shift said 12 hours before regarding cold and all areas except the far southern valley staying snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Numerous reports of storm damage associated with the tornado warned storms in Morgan and Madison counties. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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