January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[Ji]

You see a map like this 10 days out and your like...its gonna snow. It's raining and 45

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2023011300&fh=12

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But if speculation the WAR is a result of warming SSTs and if those are permanent umm…

 

It may just be more the warm AMO which we really should be coming out of soon

[Ji]

But if speculation the WAR is a result of warming SSTs and if those are permanent umm…

You had 50 inches 2 years ago and Texas froze to death. Winter can still be fierce thankfully

[Deck Pic]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

We have a 90 day window for snow every year and it snows 1 day of that window. This hobby is as unhealthy a hobby as you can find. The only benefit is its educational but 99% of the people who get snow make no effort tracking it. They just wake up and say....oh look its snowing

I stopped looking at mid/long range the last couple winters except here and there. It’s not worth it. Nothing ever works. So I refuse to get interested until 48-72 hours. We might not get a large scale pattern change this winter. But we’ll still probably score some front end thumps and other minor events. I think we’ll have more 3-4 day artic blasts. 

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But if speculation the WAR is a result of warming SSTs and if those are permanent umm…

You had 50 inches 2 years ago and Texas froze to death. Winter can still be fierce thankfully

Even in that month (Feb 2021) there was a ridge present off of the East Coast, so despite a -NAO and a part of the TPV entering the country, it was all dumped in the Midwest/Western US.

There's definitely been quite the persistent SE ridge ever since the 2015-16 winter.

Corresponding temperature anomalies show this as well

Perhaps it is just a major extreme that will regress closer to the mean in the coming years, or a product of the warm SSTs. A stout favorable El Nino would definitely be a test of which teleconnections are truly running things around here. 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But if speculation the WAR is a result of warming SSTs and if those are permanent umm…

You had 50 inches 2 years ago and Texas froze to death. Winter can still be fierce thankfully

Of course it can but we’re talking degrees. The AMO point is valid and we’ve struggled in previous AMO periods but not to this extent!  In 2021 I was the southern edge of snow when past comps said it should have been snowing into VA. Look at the analogs this winter. Everytime I check they’ve been bad but not shutout bad. Most of the years that have been spit out at various times were low snowfall pwriods. Not no snowfall!  

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm trying to understand what happened in 2015-16 though. Why was that different from the other super niños?

December I believe most felt the wildly strong MJO wave through 3-4-5 caused the SER

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Even in that month (Feb 2021) there was a ridge present off of the East Coast, so despite a -NAO and a part of the TPV entering the country, it was all dumped in the Midwest/Western US.

There's definitely been quite the persistent SE ridge ever since the 2015-16 winter.

Corresponding temperature anomalies show this as well

Perhaps it is just a major extreme that will regress closer to the mean in the coming years, or a product of the warm SSTs. A stout favorable El Nino would definitely be a test of which teleconnections are truly running things around here. 

I'm trying to understand what happened in 2015-16 though. Why was that different from the other super niños? And let's just say it's the SSTs...how did the switch flip to...whatever that quickly as opposed to gradually?

[Heisy]

It seems the energy that goes over the ridge around the 20th is being handled differently by each model and causing some issues. 00z euro tonight isn’t burying that energy like the 00z GFS.

Compare euro and gfs @ 192 hours, not even close,


.

[Heisy]

It seems the energy that goes over the ridge around the 20th is being handled differently by each model and causing some issues. 00z euro tonight isn’t burying that energy like the 00z GFS.

Compare euro and gfs @ 192 hours, not even close,


.

Euro not dumping that energy out there then leads to this headed forward…

Hope it’s right…




.

[DE2PA]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Euro not dumping that energy out there then leads to this headed forward…

Hope it’s right…




.

Euro definitely brings the colder air in from around 186 through the end of the run.

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

24 minutes ago, DE2PA said:

Euro definitely brings the colder air in from around 186 through the end of the run.

That’s a great look… if it holds true.?

[DE2PA]

11 minutes ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said:

That’s a great look… if it holds true.?

As is the case with everything this winter 

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 hours ago, Heisy said:

CMC looks like it was going to cut energy under the ridge at end of run too


.

Day 10+ on an op tho? I mean, the GEPS do look a hell of alot better than the GEFS but can it be trusted?

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s my point. There is resistance somewhere else also. Im not saying we haven’t had a hostile pac much of the time. But the times we didn’t the SE ridge has still been winning. 

look at this. Aleutian trough. Trough east of Hawaii. Fill latitude epo ridge centered into Canada, east of AK even!  The pac isn’t causing whatever went wrong on the Gfs. Just from the pac longwave pattern you would think the whole US is being overrun by cold not a trough digging to San Diego and a torch east of the Rockies. Our issues run way deeper than just the past.  The pac is amazing here and 

Fwiw 3 massive solar flares from different areas of the sun in a 4 day period a few days back. Pretty unprecedented from what I've read. 

Eta: deleted non PC sarcasm

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 hours ago, Ji said:

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Nina’s cause a -pna because a canonical Nina causes a central pac ridge which naturally favors a pna trough. That doesn’t explain why when we get rare favorable pac forcing to press that ridge east the trough still doesn’t progress but just cuts off under it. That has to be resistance downstream.  Troughs either lift or cut off out west even when the longwave pattern upstream suggests otherwise. Something on the Atlantic side is a problem also imo.    
 
 

Troughs are amplifying way sooner than I ever remember...I've literally seen 15 straight cutters on the gfs since mid dec

1997-98. It happens. We have these stretches...decades at times. 80s sucked. Big chunks of the 90s sucked. We had a pretty amazing stretch for a while before 2016. Nina DOES have alot to do with it. Especially when you get one for years in a row this stuff happens. It likely wont change until we get out of this enso phase or something flukey happens to counter the Nina canonical base. Long term enso phase locks  tend to strengthen the base state tendencies to suck ass. Once we get a major shakeup in the equatorial PAC ssts I'm willing to bet things change. Would love to have the time and energy to dig as deeply as PSU likes to, and I know this is somewhat simplistic, but this string of several Nina years in succession isn't common....and neither are the pattern analogs so methinks there is a correlation between the 2. Until Nina wanes, we are fucked imho.

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

But if speculation the WAR is a result of warming SSTs and if those are permanent umm…

But is the WAR really something new? And have we seen this feature be predominant for an anomalously longer stretch? Like a decade or more?

If the enso phase shifted and we were snowy with a Nino, for ezample, would any of us really be talking about WAR and SER and troughs not aligning the way we like? And before you get to "but marginal Nino events don't work for us anymore", can you answer my last question?

I don't think it's a simple answer wrt the pattern. I do think a massive chunk has to do with enso however. With that said, I also think we tend to over complicate things at times.

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 hours ago, Cobalt said:

Even in that month (Feb 2021) there was a ridge present off of the East Coast, so despite a -NAO and a part of the TPV entering the country, it was all dumped in the Midwest/Western US.

There's definitely been quite the persistent SE ridge ever since the 2015-16 winter.

Corresponding temperature anomalies show this as well

Perhaps it is just a major extreme that will regress closer to the mean in the coming years, or a product of the warm SSTs. A stout favorable El Nino would definitely be a test of which teleconnections are truly running things around here. 

You mention SER persistence since 2016. Aside from a brief Nino blip in 2019 we have overall been stuck in a La Nina phase since  2016 which features the weak WAR and a SER canonical base. Too much of a good thing isn't always good either....we had a string on Nino years in the early.90s and we sucked it up. When we see ENSO fluctuate YOY is 'generally' when we do ok (normal?). 

We can either hope the SSWE helps us do a backloaded thing or we pray we come out of this succession of -ENSO. Again, maybe simplistic in my approach but truly think these are related to why we score or suck in winters among other factors.

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

December I believe most felt the wildly strong MJO wave through 3-4-5 caused the SER

And mjo looks to progress from 1->2->3 in the coming weeks so of course we are seeing the SER starting to show up again on some of the lr ens. 

[Bob Chill]

4 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

I stopped looking at mid/long range the last couple winters except here and there. It’s not worth it. Nothing ever works. So I refuse to get interested until 48-72 hours. We might not get a large scale pattern change this winter. But we’ll still probably score some front end thumps and other minor events. I think we’ll have more 3-4 day artic blasts. 

We're the same now. Beat into submission or had some sense knocked into us. One or the other lol. 

I also agree with your thoughts. Epic turnaround is possible but imho, winter has spoken and it will make few happy in the east no matter what.

I don't agree that this is the "new normal". The mid Atlantic has had terrible stretches going back to the early 70s when my memory tape ends. Early 70s totally sucked until 76-77 and that was just frigid. Feb 79 turned me into a weenie. Then the early 80s came... I have plenty of memories of absent winter...

It may not snow as often but the string of big storms since 2000 is absolutely not what the 80s or 90s looked like. Or even the 70s. It's not like things fells off a cliff. Lol. It's pretty much the same types of winters we've been having. Mostly warm and disappointing with some zingers. 

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

And mjo looks to progress from 1->2->3 in the coming weeks so of course we are seeing the SER starting to show up again on some of the lr ens. 

Typical Nina. Take a look at the current SST anomalies. Favors convection closer to the MC.

[CAPE]

I am sure the gloom and doom meter will be higher once folks see the latest ens means in the LR lol. It's way out there, but probably the most likely progression, and the extended products have been depicting it. Not an awful look(typical Nina), and it is just a smoothed mean- the actual longwave pattern will vary. We aren't likely going to see some classically favorable h5 pattern lock in at this juncture. Chances will come in the usual ways- well timed wave on the the backside of a bigger storm with the boundary pulled south, front end snow to mix etc.

[WxUSAF]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I am sure the gloom and doom meter will be higher once folks see the latest ens means in the LR lol. It's way out there, but probably the most likely progression, and the extended products have been depicting it. Not an awful look(typical Nina), and it is just a smoothed mean- the actual longwave pattern will vary. We aren't likely going to see some classically favorable h5 pattern lock in at this juncture. Chances will come in the usual ways- well timed wave on the the backside of a bigger storm with the boundary pulled south, front end snow to mix etc.

EPS and GEPS still look quite favorable. GEFS never moves the trough east of the Rockies and the SE ridge flexes. Differences are only in the D9-11 range too, so we should start to see some convergence in the next couple days? I think the GEFS evolution makes sense eventually where it goes toward a more canonical  Niña pattern…but hopefully rushing it?

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

EPS and GEPS still look quite favorable. GEFS never moves the trough east of the Rockies and the SE ridge flexes. Differences are only in the D9-11 range too, so we should start to see some convergence in the next couple days? I think the GEFS evolution makes sense eventually where it goes toward a more canonical  Niña pattern…but hopefully rushing it?

Agreed. Wrt the SER and WAR 'concern' posts, there is going to be some degree of that without a doubt. Some -NAO action will help counter it.

[WxUSAF]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Agreed. Wrt the SER and WAR 'concern' posts, there is going to be some degree of that without a doubt. Some -NAO action will help counter it.

In any of the longwave patterns depicted, if they remain as active as advertised with cold air nearby at least, you’d think we’d almost have to stumble into either a front end snow to ice/rain deal or a follow up wave running the boundary. Those are bread and butter events for us and this will be happening at peak climo… can’t totally fail…right??

[DE2PA]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

In any of the longwave patterns depicted, if they remain as active as advertised with cold air nearby at least, you’d think we’d almost have to stumble into either a front end snow to ice/rain deal or a follow up wave running the boundary. Those are bread and butter events for us and this will be happening at peak climo… can’t totally fail…right??

I vote running the boundary. Seeing the EURO go damn near West to East in a straight line got me jimmies going.

 

Albeit with out moisture present 

[Weather Will]

The definition of insanity is repeating the same thing but expecting a different result…

Let’s see if we get something to track inside five days…nothing in the next five….

Enjoy the chilly holiday weekend!

[AtlanticWx]

The LR pattern around the 27th looks pretty favorable for something around here if a wave rides up that boundary along the SE ridge.

[CAPE]

42 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

In any of the longwave patterns depicted, if they remain as active as advertised with cold air nearby at least, you’d think we’d almost have to stumble into either a front end snow to ice/rain deal or a follow up wave running the boundary. Those are bread and butter events for us and this will be happening at peak climo… can’t totally fail…right??

lol you would think. Waves running the boundary with cold pressing seems to be the simplest way given the pattern progression as depicted. Pretty persistent hints of that on the means beyond the 20th. Eff anything complicated or amped.

[WinterWxLuvr]

SSDD