January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[Maestrobjwa]

17 minutes ago, Ji said:

99.9999 percent of the country is below normal....guess which .000001 isnt

Alright so that's two caniptions over hr 384 today...lol (despite this look being better than 12z I think)

[peribonca]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

99.9999 percent of the country is below normal....guess which .000001 isnt

Alaska?

[psuhoffman]

The biggest reason I remain skeptical is in recent years when we did get a poleward epo ridge, even an eastward one banked up into western Canada, instead of dumping cold into the central US it digs a trough Into the southwest and pumps the SE ridge. This has happened several times. 
 

Frankly the reason I’m tired of the “it’s the pac” excuse it that’s lazy. We’ve had different pac longwave patterns that all end the same for us. Flat central pac ridge…raging pos AO western trough we torch. Pacific trough, floods pac puke, we torch. Epo ridge, digs trough deep down the west we torch. 
 

No matter what the pac longwave pattern we can’t get a pna ridge for long. And I suspect there is more effect than cause there.  It seems to me there is resistance to a trough progressing east so even when we do get a pac that should work, and yea that’s been a minority, it still doesn’t it just digs a -pna even more instead, even when the pac ridge is far enough east it should press the trough east more.  The Atlantic is just as big a problem Imo.  There has to be a reason other than just the pac why troughs want to dig to Mexico out west no matter where the pac ridge is centered. 

[Ji]

Gfs horrible run so far

[Ji]

Time to call it

Winter is over. Time of death....midnight Jan 13

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gfs horrible run so far

What tropical forcing there is should be favorable to the trough shifting more east.  The pac ridge extends all the way into western Canada. But the trough just cuts off into the west instead of pressing east. This has happened each time we’ve had a -epo recently.  

[Ji]

No blue on the gfs between Jan 13 and Jan 27. Wft

[brooklynwx99]

it’s a long range OP run

[Ji]

What tropical forcing there is should be favorable to the trough shifting more east.  The pac ridge extends all the way into western Canada. But the trough just cuts off into the west instead of pressing east. This has happened each time we’ve had a -epo recently.  

I think all the ridging in the 50 50 region is helping force the trough to the sw

[Ji]

it’s a long range OP run

Yes but if it was good...you'd be all over it

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it’s a long range OP run

My point about troughs digging into the SW regardless of how far east we get the pac ridge…there have been times it was well into Canada and the trough just cut off under it,  was not made because of the Gfs. It’s just ironic the Gfs does exactly what I said. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

My point about troughs digging into the SW regardless of how far east we get the pac ridge…there have been times it was well into Canada and the trough just cut off under it,  was not made because of the Gfs. It’s just ironic the Gfs does exactly what I said. 

I know what you mean. not really sure why it happens, either. probably a mixture of some bad luck and Nina crap, who knows

[Ji]

My point about troughs digging into the SW regardless of how far east we get the pac ridge…there have been times it was well into Canada and the trough just cut off under it,  was not made because of the Gfs. It’s just ironic the Gfs does exactly what I said. 

More to come apparently at 384

[Ji]

I hardly here anyone mention the pdo anymore but back in the day...when it was positive..like 2....you at least had a decent chance of a good winter

[Heisy]

CMC looks like it was going to cut energy under the ridge at end of run too


.

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What tropical forcing there is should be favorable to the trough shifting more east.  The pac ridge extends all the way into western Canada. But the trough just cuts off into the west instead of pressing east. This has happened each time we’ve had a -epo recently.  

I think all the ridging in the 50 50 region is helping force the trough to the sw

That’s my point. There is resistance somewhere else also. Im not saying we haven’t had a hostile pac much of the time. But the times we didn’t the SE ridge has still been winning. 

look at this. Aleutian trough. Trough east of Hawaii. Fill latitude epo ridge centered into Canada, east of AK even!  The pac isn’t causing whatever went wrong on the Gfs. Just from the pac longwave pattern you would think the whole US is being overrun by cold not a trough digging to San Diego and a torch east of the Rockies. Our issues run way deeper than just the past.  The pac is amazing here and we still torch! 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s my point. There is resistance somewhere else also. Im not saying we haven’t had a hostile pac much of the time. But the times we didn’t the SE ridge has still been winning. 

look at this. Aleutian trough. Trough east of Hawaii. Fill latitude epo ridge centered into Canada, east of AK even!  The pac isn’t causing whatever went wrong on the Gfs. Just from the pac longwave pattern you would think the whole US is being overrun by cold not a trough digging to San Diego and a torch east of the Rockies. Our issues run way deeper than just the past.  The pac is amazing here and we still torch! 

So then...what's causing the SE ridge being as strong as modeled? Warm ocean or?

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I know what you mean. not really sure why it happens, either. probably a mixture of some bad luck and Nina crap, who knows

Nina’s cause a -pna because a canonical Nina causes a central pac ridge which naturally favors a pna trough. That doesn’t explain why when we get rare favorable pac forcing to press that ridge east the trough still doesn’t progress but just cuts off under it. That has to be resistance downstream.  Troughs either lift or cut off out west even when the longwave pattern upstream suggests otherwise. Something on the Atlantic side is a problem also imo.    

 

 

[DE2PA]

I may need to put a parental block on Tropical Tidbits and Pivotal Weather.

 

This is not great for me mental health.

[Ji]

So then...what's causing the SE ridge being as strong as modeled? Warm ocean or?

The se ridge is just a response to when a trough dives into Los Angeles. His question is why is that happening no matter how the pac looks. I'd say the last 5 winters...the blue is on the west coast 80% of the time lol

[Ji]

Nina’s cause a -pna because a canonical Nina causes a central pac ridge which naturally favors a pna trough. That doesn’t explain why when we get rare favorable pac forcing to press that ridge east the trough still doesn’t progress but just cuts off under it. That has to be resistance downstream.  Troughs either lift or cut off out west even when the longwave pattern upstream suggests otherwise. Something on the Atlantic side is a problem also imo.    
 
 

Troughs are amplifying way sooner than I ever remember...I've literally seen 15 straight cutters on the gfs since mid dec

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, DE2PA said:

I may need to put a parental block on Tropical Tidbits and Pivotal Weather.

 

This is not great for me mental health.

Ain't good for anybody mental health, lol I am finding that too much exposure makes ya see the lack of snow as a bigger catastrophe in life than it actually is. Disappointing? Absolutely. But in life context? Not as big as it appears...but when you're on here all the time when we're struggling for snow, you'd think the world is literally ending--but it's not quite reality.

[Ji]

Also we get a western trough with a negative ao and nao....like in December? Seems like a physical impossibility but here we are

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nina’s cause a -pna because a canonical Nina causes a central pac ridge which naturally favors a pna trough. That doesn’t explain why when we get rare favorable pac forcing to press that ridge east the trough still doesn’t progress but just cuts off under it. That has to be resistance downstream.  Troughs either lift or cut off out west even when the longwave pattern upstream suggests otherwise. Something on the Atlantic side is a problem also imo.    

 

 

So are you genuinely perplexed or are you trying not to say what it is?

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Also we get a western trough with a negative ao and nao....like in December? Seems like a physical impossibility but here we are

Its most likely that the 50/50 low has been nonexistent and there has been somewhat of a ridge there...this probably is the ultimate problem

[Ji]

Ain't good for anybody mental health, lol I am finding that too much exposure makes ya see the lack of snow as a bigger catastrophe in life than it actually is. Disappointing? Absolutely. But in life context? Not as big as it appears...but when you're on here all the time when we're struggling for snow, you'd think the world is literally ending--but it's not quite reality.

No its actually ending. We have a mental illness that nobody wants to admit

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So then...what's causing the SE ridge being as strong as modeled? Warm ocean or?

The se ridge is just a response to when a trough dives into Los Angeles. His question is why is that happening no matter how the pac looks. I'd say the last 5 winters...the blue is on the west coast 80% of the time lol

There could be something too that though.  Think about the flow. As the flow goes up just off the west coast and into western Canada the wave in the west SHOULD be forced east. If there is nothing causing a kink in the flow. But if there is resistance to the flow east (think of putting a stick in the water and watching the flow back up around it) that would cause what we’re seeing. Something on the Atlantic side is resisting troughs professing east. 

[Ji]

We have a 90 day window for snow every year and it snows 1 day of that window. This hobby is as unhealthy a hobby as you can find. The only benefit is its educational but 99% of the people who get snow make no effort tracking it. They just wake up and say....oh look its snowing

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Its most likely that the 50/50 low has been nonexistent and there has been somewhat of a ridge there...this probably is the ultimate problem

But if speculation the WAR is a result of warming SSTs and if those are permanent umm…

[DE2PA]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ain't good for anybody mental health, lol I am finding that too much exposure makes ya see the lack of snow as a bigger catastrophe in life than it actually is. Disappointing? Absolutely. But in life context? Not as big as it appears...but when you're on here all the time when we're struggling for snow, you'd think the world is literally ending--but it's not quite reality.

Absolutely. Much bigger problems in the world. This just used to be one of those hobbies that was innocent and pure enjoyment. Those are based off of the expectations though. Which clearly do not add up with the reality. 
 

The hope is still there, I likely will not stop until St Patricks day or when the true heavy hitters in here raise the white flag.