January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[AtlanticWx]

for those hoping for a big one with this pattern, probably gonna be a long stretch to hope for that. however, i think this is more of a CAD pattern where we get snow -> ZR/sleet -> rain events which can rack up pretty fast and bring us to at least not well below normal. i think all of us here would take a nice 1-3"/2-4"/3-6" event out of desperation lmao

the pattern does look kinda similar to feb 2021 imo, w/ less amplitude ofc

[osfan24]

I hate those events. Never understood the fascination with them. Get some snow and then see it washed away hours later. Fun.

[AtlanticWx]

4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I hate those events. Never understood the fascination with them. Get some snow and then see it washed away hours later. Fun.

i understand where ur coming from tbh but for me atl snow is snow so i'll take whatever i can get. living in dc and wanting all snow events prob won't end well so atl imo i just hope for whatever we can get

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I hate those events. Never understood the fascination with them. Get some snow and then see it washed away hours later. Fun.

Yeah I mean you can barely enjoy the scenery before it goes poof! And then you're imagining what could've been, lol (like the storm last year that got yanked NW by another NS piece) Just doesn't quite satisfy, lol

[osfan24]

Part of the enjoyment is having a snowpack, getting out there and shoveling it, taking the kids sledding and playing in it with them, etc.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, osfan24 said:

Part of the enjoyment is having a snowpack, getting out there and shoveling it, taking the kids sledding and playing in it with them, etc.

Assuming it happens during the day, lol But ya got a limited time and then...splish splash

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Part of the enjoyment is having a snowpack, getting out there and shoveling it, taking the kids sledding and playing in it with them, etc.

 

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Assuming it happens during the day, lol But ya got a limited time and then...splish splash

Ok I’m full tilt right now too but this is silly. Think about what you’re doing. In most waves like we’re discussing the distance between nothing, all snow, mix, all rain isn’t nearly enough to be worrying where that will be 15 days away. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

 

Ok I’m full tilt right now too but this is silly. Think about what you’re doing. In most waves like we’re discussing the distance between nothing, all snow, mix, all rain isn’t nearly enough to be worrying where that will be 15 days away. 

Oh no I wasn't talking about a specific threat. Someone commented on the setup in general and why some like the thump-rain scenarios.

[frd]

I can see this happening ............................................. and I am not high        

[frd]

If you build it they will come    

 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

@psuhoffman You jotting down notes after this GFS run? 

[wxdude64]

18 minutes ago, frd said:

I can see this happening ............................................. and I am not high        

Well, it is a month out, so possible... It SURE would fix/cure a lot of the angst out there. 

[Rtd208]

DT (WxRisk) not buying any kind of pattern change for at least two more weeks.

 

[Weather Will]

Remember expectations 10-14 days ago and where we are with the storm this weekend.  Hopefully the last 7-10 days of January will deliver. but we are still too far away for any details….HOPEFULLY we will get some of that record cold in Siberia to come over this way….WB EURO Asian cold

[clskinsfan]

48 minutes ago, frd said:

I can see this happening ............................................. and I am not high        

If I can snag 20 more inches this year I will run down my street naked. And no one wants to see that. Just saying. 

[clskinsfan]

25 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

DT (WxRisk) not buying any kind of pattern change for at least two more weeks.

 

I mean. Yeah. No model is showing a pattern change for at least two weeks.....

[DE2PA]

29 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

DT (WxRisk) not buying any kind of pattern change for at least two more weeks.

 

Based on his rep, this is good for us right?

 

Fade DT

[AtlanticWx]

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18z gefs looking a lot more like EPS/GEPS in the long range now. fwiw the baroclinic boundary might still be too far north on that map but we can certaintly still produce in that fs. 18z gefs looking a lot more enthusiastic snow-wise on indies but probably best to refrain from posting that.

[Solution Man]

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Actually trended the wrong way (West) with the mean Western Ridge axis longitude vs 0z run. Soooo, the chase continues:

 

[snowfan]

1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

Part of the enjoyment is having a snowpack, getting out there and shoveling it, taking the kids sledding and playing in it with them, etc.

We don’t live in an area that excels at retaining snowpack for long periods of time. Even those living in the mountains of northern carroll suck at retaining their pack. 

[AtlanticWx]

12 minutes ago, snowfan said:

We don’t live in an area that excels at retaining snowpack for long periods of time. Even those living in the mountains of northern carroll suck at retaining their pack. 

exactly, js setting urself up for failure tbh

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

If I can snag 20 more inches this year I will run down my street naked. And no one wants to see that. Just saying. 

Stevie Wonder wouldn't mind. 

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Stevie Wonder wouldn't mind. 

He would when his wife told him what she was seeing running down the road. 

[ravensrule]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

He would when his wife told him what she was seeing running down the road. 

Such small problems in life. I think she would be fine. 

[clskinsfan]

5 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

small problems

Exactly

[jayyy]

Keep the faith ladies. Have a pretty good feeling that we’ll be able to eek a win or two out of this upcoming pattern. My main concern is the duration of said pattern change. How long do we get the -EPO and some relief from the PAC onslaught? Do we get a couple of weeks? A few days? That’s my main concern. Any relief we’ve gotten from the PAC as of late has been very short lived. Hoping we can get at least 2-3 workable setups out of this. Nice to see the GEFS move toward the EPS / GEPS over the last couple of days and not the other way around.


.

[Ji]

If I can snag 20 more inches this year I will run down my street naked. And no one wants to see that. Just saying. 

You have zero right?

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

2 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

If I can snag 20 more inches this year I will run down my street naked. And no one wants to see that. Just saying. 

You have zero right?

A whopping 2.2.... Heres the amazing "storm" we had. And remember. I live in bumbfuck nowhere:

 

[BristowWx]

17 minutes ago, Ji said:

2 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

If I can snag 20 more inches this year I will run down my street naked. And no one wants to see that. Just saying. 

You have zero right?

I have zero.  Yes yes I do.  And no functioning gauges.  Not a one

[Ji]

99.9999 percent of the country is below normal....guess which .000001 isnt