January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[psuhoffman]

@Ji @CAPE ya but look at HOW the euro gets to that awful look day 10. 
It goes from this 

to this 

in 24 hours!!! Then 24 more and…

from a cold front just clearing and a full lat trough to a full on torch in 24 hours!  We used to rely on waves attacking cold but what chance do we have when the warm air masses win in a rout that quickly without there even needing to be a wave.  It’s not like that’s from some amplified cutter. That’s just ordinary return flow touting all cold from 1000 miles in 24 hours!  
 

But look HOW that happened… and yea I know this is just one projection but we’ve seen this exact progression over and over and no one is talking about it or asking WHY does this keep happening when it goes against historical wave spacing  

Look at the longwave pattern here  look at the next wave X.  Where should that go given this longwave setup?

 

Now see what actually happens, follow X

Follow X

WTF?  Why is every pac wave digging to Baja regardless of the longwave pattern.  It didn’t do that because if the pac.  The epo ridge is extending into western Canada.  The trough is east of Hawaii still, that wave should progress into the central US.  
 

Over and over systems keep digging into the SW even if the pac ridge is over the top into Canada.  The same happened in December.  The same happened 2 years ago during blocking!  The same happened over and over in 2019.  Ppl keep saying “the pac” but even when we get a favorable pac for short periods it doesn’t matter the same conus effect remains.  
 

I think the SE ridge is actually as much a cause as effect here.   That system is digging way west of where the longwave alignment suggests because the SE ridge is trying to resume and is resisting.  No one is pointing this out because it’s true much of the time the problem has been “the pac” but we’re ignoring the times we get a window where the pac jet is actually favorable the pattern over the US still ends up sucking monkey nuts  

 

 

 

[CAPE]

This is actually a pretty cold look for the MA. Problem is it's also dry.

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji @CAPE ya but look at HOW the euro gets to that awful look day 10. 
It goes from this 

to this 

in 24 hours!!! Then 24 more and…

from a cold front just clearing and a full lat trough to a full on torch in 24 hours!  We used to rely on waves attacking cold but what chance do we have when the warm air masses win in a rout that quickly without there even needing to be a wave.  It’s not like that’s from some amplified cutter. That’s just ordinary return flow touting all cold from 1000 miles in 24 hours!  
 

But look HOW that happened… and yea I know this is just one projection but we’ve seen this exact progression over and over and no one is talking about it or asking WHY does this keep happening when it goes against historical wave spacing  

Look at the longwave pattern here  look at the next wave X.  Where should that go given this longwave setup?

 

Now see what actually happens, follow X

Follow X

WTF?  Why is every pac wave digging to Baja regardless of the longwave pattern.  It didn’t do that because if the pac.  The epo ridge is extending into western Canada.  The trough is east of Hawaii still, that wave should progress into the central US.  
 

Over and over systems keep digging into the SW even if the pac ridge is over the top into Canada.  The same happened in December.  The same happened 2 years ago during blocking!  The same happened over and over in 2019.  Ppl keep saying “the pac” but even when we get a favorable pac for short periods it doesn’t matter the same conus effect remains.  
 

I think the SE ridge is actually as much a cause as effect here.   That system is digging way west of where the longwave alignment suggests because the SE ridge is trying to resume and is resisting.  No one is pointing this out because it’s true much of the time the problem has been “the pac” but we’re ignoring the times we get a window where the pac jet is actually favorable the pattern over the US still ends up sucking monkey nuts  

 

 

 

Too much analysis for an op run at range lol. I just got a kick out of it because it somehow ended up the exact inversion of what we would want. EPS isn't bad end of the month considering we have a far less than ideal look up top- but there is a TPV lobe with anomalously low heights in a pretty good position to our NE. Looks dry as a bone though.

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Too much analysis for an op run at range lol. I just got a kick out of it because it somehow ended up the exact inversion of what we would want. EPS isn't bad end of the month considering we have a far less than ideal look up top- but there is a TPV lobe with anomalously low heights in a pretty good position to our NE. Looks dry as a bone though.

The EPS AFTER that period rotates a lobe of the PV into a favorable spot in SE Canada. And yea it’s an op at range but the eps agrees and we’ve seen this exact progression happen numerous times and no one is talking about it or if they do it’s only to say “but the pna is awful”. Ya but WHY?  Why does the pna continuously do that even when other longwave features are aligned in a way to argue against that!  I think there’s more going on than these “but the pac” or “but the pna” comments account for. I think there is more than ample proof there is another additional cause here. And I’m totally ok with the possibility it has nothing to do with warming. Maybe it’s something else. But I’m not ok with just blowing it off with “but the pac”. It’s more than that.  

[cbmclean]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The EPS AFTER that period rotates a lobe of the PV into a favorable spot in SE Canada. And yea it’s an op at range but the eps agrees and we’ve seen this exact progression happen numerous times and no one is talking about it or if they do it’s only to say “but the pna is awful”. Ya but WHY?  Why does the pna continuously do that even when other longwave features are aligned in a way to argue against that!  I think there’s more going on than these “but the pac” or “but the pna” comments account for. I think there is more than ample proof there is another additional cause here. And I’m totally ok with the possibility it has nothing to do with warming. Maybe it’s something else. But I’m not ok with just blowing it off with “but the pac”. It’s more than that.  

First obvious thought would be the SER is on steroids due to the bath water in the gulf, and just off the east coast.  Seems like you had mentioned that yourself earlier as a possibility.  Is there some reason why you doubt that hypothesis?    

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

First obvious thought would be the SER is on steroids due to the bath water in the gulf, and just off the east coast.  Seems like you had mentioned that yourself earlier as a possibility.  Is there some reason why you doubt that hypothesis?    

No I do. But that’s not being discussed.  I see a ton of discussion about enso and pna and epo. And when one of those things isn’t directly to blame it’s “just the pac” as some carte Blanche. 
 

There isn’t enough discussion on how the SE ridge and WAR have been an issue even when larger pattern drivers say they shouldn’t. Like im December when a SE ridge linked with a -4 block. That’s the 3rd time that’s happened recently and that’s unheard of. A SE ridge pops on the face of global teleconnections that argue for a trough in the east or in the least a suppressed ridge and no one says anything. 
 

My guess is because if the SE ridge is an artifact of the warmer Gulf than 1 it’s kinda a permanent issue and that’s depressing and 2 it’s related to something a large cohort doesn’t want to even hint at because it starts a shit storm. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Not enough gulf hurricanes

[CAPE]

54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The EPS AFTER that period rotates a lobe of the PV into a favorable spot in SE Canada. And yea it’s an op at range but the eps agrees and we’ve seen this exact progression happen numerous times and no one is talking about it or if they do it’s only to say “but the pna is awful”. Ya but WHY?  Why does the pna continuously do that even when other longwave features are aligned in a way to argue against that!  I think there’s more going on than these “but the pac” or “but the pna” comments account for. I think there is more than ample proof there is another additional cause here. And I’m totally ok with the possibility it has nothing to do with warming. Maybe it’s something else. But I’m not ok with just blowing it off with “but the pac”. It’s more than that.  

Yeah I was actually referring more specifically to around Feb 2nd per my previous post.

There are likely multiple factors to explain what's behind a progression like that op run and other examples of similar outcomes. Some of it is just cyclical like TNH etc, combined with Nina tendencies; the rest is that 'other stuff', which also helps explain the Pac jet on steroids/persistent -PNA etc.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

591+dm ridge on the coldest day of the year (average) lol

Draw over it all you want hr150 and 174 same thing 593dm maybe even.. last time models did this was for the pattern right after this Christmas.

(Jan 27th the coldest high/low day of the year, script?)

[Ruin]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji @CAPE ya but look at HOW the euro gets to that awful look day 10. 
It goes from this 

to this 

in 24 hours!!! Then 24 more and…

from a cold front just clearing and a full lat trough to a full on torch in 24 hours!  We used to rely on waves attacking cold but what chance do we have when the warm air masses win in a rout that quickly without there even needing to be a wave.  It’s not like that’s from some amplified cutter. That’s just ordinary return flow touting all cold from 1000 miles in 24 hours!  
 

But look HOW that happened… and yea I know this is just one projection but we’ve seen this exact progression over and over and no one is talking about it or asking WHY does this keep happening when it goes against historical wave spacing  

Look at the longwave pattern here  look at the next wave X.  Where should that go given this longwave setup?

 

Now see what actually happens, follow X

Follow X

WTF?  Why is every pac wave digging to Baja regardless of the longwave pattern.  It didn’t do that because if the pac.  The epo ridge is extending into western Canada.  The trough is east of Hawaii still, that wave should progress into the central US.  
 

Over and over systems keep digging into the SW even if the pac ridge is over the top into Canada.  The same happened in December.  The same happened 2 years ago during blocking!  The same happened over and over in 2019.  Ppl keep saying “the pac” but even when we get a favorable pac for short periods it doesn’t matter the same conus effect remains.  
 

I think the SE ridge is actually as much a cause as effect here.   That system is digging way west of where the longwave alignment suggests because the SE ridge is trying to resume and is resisting.  No one is pointing this out because it’s true much of the time the problem has been “the pac” but we’re ignoring the times we get a window where the pac jet is actually favorable the pattern over the US still ends up sucking monkey nuts  

 

 

 

Models suck man every since they so called upgraded them in 2015ish they throw out some wild junk both ways 

[North Balti Zen]

Quote

 it’s related to something a large cohort doesn’t want to even hint at because it starts a shit storm. 

there's literally two forums on this board AND a special thread in this sub-forum that YOU started for that discussion. It can be discussed plenty. I read in that thread, the discussion is good!  But why can't you just keep it there? How is that so hard for you to adhere to? You are a teacher, you cool with your class rules just being ignored by your students? 

[Amped]

I give us a 50/50 shot at getting a flake within a 75 mile radius in that pattern

[peribonca]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

I give us a 50/50 shot at getting a flake within a 75 mile radius in that pattern

that'll double my seasonal snowfall (if it was in fact a snowflake and not a small bird feather)! Can't wait. 

[windycutter]

The SER is relentless.

[windycutter]

2 minutes ago, windycutter said:

The SER is relentless.

Like a brick wall.

[Heisy]

The SER is relentless.

It’s more because energy keeps dumping into the southwest. Just a natural response to that


.

[windycutter]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

It’s more because energy keeps dumping into the southwest. Just a natural response to that


 

Why are so many vorts heading that way?

[North Balti Zen]

3 minutes ago, windycutter said:

Why are so many vorts heading that way?

that discussion has been had and is being had in a thread on this sub-forum. Read there. Good discussion there. 

 

[windycutter]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

It’s more because energy keeps dumping into the southwest. Just a natural response to that


.

Is it the ridge off the Western Canadian coast? I am trying to learn/understand the multiple pieces.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Feb 5-21 +PNA possibility (I think the dates surrounding.. Feb 1-4 and Feb 22-28 into March will go -PNA)

 

It's verifying.. scientific-math. validity vs random

[windycutter]

14 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

that discussion has been had and is being had in a thread on this sub-forum. Read there. Good discussion there. 

 

Thanks. Kinda new here.

[North Balti Zen]

No worries, and, welcome to the forum!

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS for Wed.  I am hoping for my first car topper of the season…

[WinterFire]

If we can’t discuss why long range patterns are progressing the way they are being modeled to progress in the literal long range thread, what the actual fuck is the point of a long range thread?

1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

that discussion has been had and is being had in a thread on this sub-forum. Read there. Good discussion there. 

 

 

[Weather Will]

The point is that having two pages between every model run about the base state being warmer is not necessary.  It disrupts the flow of those trying to track the differences between model runs.  We all know the base state is warming and whether it is a natural cycle, man-made or a combination of both is a topic to discuss in other threads.  We don’t need to be told every run that if this were the 1960s this pattern would result in a snowier outcome… PEACE OUT….

[North Balti Zen]

28 minutes ago, WinterFire said:

If we can’t discuss why long range patterns are progressing the way they are being modeled to progress in the literal long range thread, what the actual fuck is the point of a long range thread?

 

If that is what it is, that would be one thing. But it is not what that is. It immediately drifts to climate change stuff and that is, by request of those who run this site, to be had elsewhere. In plenty of places.

take it up with a mod. Take it up with Randy. But for godssake, please take it up with them elsewhere. 

[TSSN+]

What happened to the midweek threat thread? Lol. Anyway 18z Euro looks threatening at 90.

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

What happened to the midweek threat thread? Lol. Anyway 18z Euro looks threatening at 90.

If it happens… heads are going to roll. 

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

What happened to the midweek threat thread? Lol. Anyway 18z Euro looks threatening at 90.

Was told by the mods that allow the word F* and selectively enforce other rules (sorry the lawyer in me) no thread for Wed Storm until Tuesday.  I plan to break the rule at 12Z tomorrow if warranted.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS shows that the upcoming period can deliver with a little luck….