January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

Bwahahaha the DC snow hole large and in charge.  I'm going to Meadow mountain on the weekend of 2/4.  Hopefully the 15" of snow is legit.  

I hope it goes down like that for the central region meltdowns…especially mine

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Bwahahaha the DC snow hole large and in charge.  I'm going to Meadow mountain on the weekend of 2/4.  Hopefully the 15" of snow is legit.  

That’s +10,000 on the bet line

[Weather Will]

It is fantasy range beyond 5 days but it is nice to see something at range to our south….

[IronTy]

Just now, Weather Will said:

It is fantasy range beyond 5 days but it is nice to see something at range to our south….

At that range in order for it to be in play for us on the GFS the low needs to be crossing the everglades.  

[Chris78]

12 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Best op run in a long time fwiw.

Heck yeah. The first week in February cold should be established by then. (Hopefully).

If we can have STJ waves ride the boundary it could make this winter not so God awful.

[CAPE]

This is the period the ensembles have been hinting at for awhile now with the boundary finally to our south. Cold HP to the north and multiple waves on the GFS.

[MDScienceTeacher]

13 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

It is fantasy range beyond 5 days but it is nice to see something at range to our south….

It has been so warm.. with the dominant SE ridge. When we start seeing cold air sinking in to our area, seeing that big boundary layer is not surprising. I like the look!

[MDScienceTeacher]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

lets go. We need something to shut down climate crisis talk

LOL. climate crisis has nothing to do with shitty storm tracks.  When low pressure is tracking through Indiana, its wont snow here, no matter how cold it is. 

ETA.. Actually I take this back.. I really dont know enough about the interplay between our warming climate and atmospheric synoptic patterns.. but yay fantasy snow!  

[Kevin Reilly]

51 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Bwahahaha the DC snow hole large and in charge.  I'm going to Meadow mountain on the weekend of 2/4.  Hopefully the 15" of snow is legit.  

Hmmm must be a warm tongue of air just above the surface coming off the Atlantic another way to fail.  The hits keep coming.

[Solution Man]

Maybe the Euro has another good run in it for us…kinda feeling it

[Kevin Reilly]

49 minutes ago, IronTy said:

At that range in order for it to be in play for us on the GFS the low needs to be crossing the everglades.  

Cuba more like it

[windycutter]

Not to bad

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

Bwahahaha the DC snow hole large and in charge.  I'm going to Meadow mountain on the weekend of 2/4.  Hopefully the 15" of snow is legit.  

To be fair, that's a i95 snow hole from DC thru NYC. 

[Ji]

Gfs looks epic late Jan early Feb. Winter saving

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Gfs looks epic late Jan early Feb. Winter saving

I/we've been teased enough with the 10+ day stuff. I don't buy it this time which is exactly why it will probably happen. Get it within 5 or 6 days and I'll jump on the Roger Smith spaceship bandwagon thing.

[Paleocene]

If this map comes anywhere CLOSE to verifying and we don't get at least an inch of snow inside the beltway by feb 10th, I'm throwing in the towel. We've got the modeled cold finally

 

[Steve25]

5 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

If this map comes anywhere CLOSE to verifying and we don't get at least an inch of snow inside the beltway by feb 10th, I'm throwing in the towel. We've got the modeled cold finally

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but that cold hasn't fully shown up on the other models recently, has it? 

[Kevin Reilly]

8 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

If this map comes anywhere CLOSE to verifying and we don't get at least an inch of snow inside the beltway by feb 10th, I'm throwing in the towel. We've got the modeled cold finally

 

Remember February 11th, 1983!

[Paleocene]

Just now, Steve25 said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but that cold hasn't fully shown up on the other models recently, has it? 

Canadian ensemble also has a half decent cold push around that time frame. I don't know (not an expert) if any of teh other ensembles/ops go past 240?

 

meanwhile euro not bad with the front end thump mid week for northern forum:

[Ji]

I created a storm thread...

https://r.tapatalk.com/shareLink/topic?url=https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58753-jan-25-front-end-threat/&share_tid=58753&share_fid=13197&share_type=t&link_source=app

[TSSN+]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

I created a storm thread...

https://r.tapatalk.com/shareLink/topic?url=https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58753-jan-25-front-end-threat/&share_tid=58753&share_fid=13197&share_type=t&link_source=app

Guess you missed the memo not to make one till Tuesday lol 

[Ji]

Guess you missed the memo not to make one till Tuesday lol 

Why? The storm is coming. It's been well modeled for days lol

[Wxdavis5784]

56 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gfs looks epic late Jan early Feb. Winter saving

Until the 18z unhappy hour

[Ji]

the euro looks awful at d10 geez...nothing like gfs with its handling of pv

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Guess you missed the memo not to make one till Tuesday lol 

Why? The storm is coming. It's been well modeled for days lol

The dumb jinx thing I am guessing.

Why not have a thread for a discrete threat, so we can focus on more pattern chasing here for the big snow that will save this winter? 

[Interstate]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

the euro looks awful at d10 geez...nothing like gfs with its handling of pv

You killed it. 

[pazzo83]

Ji strikes again

[Ruin]

1 hour ago, Paleocene said:

If this map comes anywhere CLOSE to verifying and we don't get at least an inch of snow inside the beltway by feb 10th, I'm throwing in the towel. We've got the modeled cold finally

 

iIll put 5.00 in the pot to say the cold gets pushed back a few days to a week then it just vanishes heh.

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

the euro looks awful at d10 geez...nothing like gfs with its handling of pv

lol

Hell of a dipole(rex) block. The mirror image of what we want.

[RedSky]

12z ECM is a horror show