January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[Weather Will]

It is fantasy range beyond 5 days but it is nice to see something at range to our south….

[IronTy]

Just now, Weather Will said:

It is fantasy range beyond 5 days but it is nice to see something at range to our south….

At that range in order for it to be in play for us on the GFS the low needs to be crossing the everglades.  

[Chris78]

12 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Best op run in a long time fwiw.

Heck yeah. The first week in February cold should be established by then. (Hopefully).

If we can have STJ waves ride the boundary it could make this winter not so God awful.

[CAPE]

This is the period the ensembles have been hinting at for awhile now with the boundary finally to our south. Cold HP to the north and multiple waves on the GFS.

[MDScienceTeacher]

13 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

It is fantasy range beyond 5 days but it is nice to see something at range to our south….

It has been so warm.. with the dominant SE ridge. When we start seeing cold air sinking in to our area, seeing that big boundary layer is not surprising. I like the look!

[MDScienceTeacher]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

lets go. We need something to shut down climate crisis talk

LOL. climate crisis has nothing to do with shitty storm tracks.  When low pressure is tracking through Indiana, its wont snow here, no matter how cold it is. 

ETA.. Actually I take this back.. I really dont know enough about the interplay between our warming climate and atmospheric synoptic patterns.. but yay fantasy snow!  

[Kevin Reilly]

51 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Bwahahaha the DC snow hole large and in charge.  I'm going to Meadow mountain on the weekend of 2/4.  Hopefully the 15" of snow is legit.  

Hmmm must be a warm tongue of air just above the surface coming off the Atlantic another way to fail.  The hits keep coming.

[Solution Man]

Maybe the Euro has another good run in it for us…kinda feeling it

[Kevin Reilly]

49 minutes ago, IronTy said:

At that range in order for it to be in play for us on the GFS the low needs to be crossing the everglades.  

Cuba more like it

[windycutter]

Not to bad

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

Bwahahaha the DC snow hole large and in charge.  I'm going to Meadow mountain on the weekend of 2/4.  Hopefully the 15" of snow is legit.  

To be fair, that's a i95 snow hole from DC thru NYC. 

[Ji]

Gfs looks epic late Jan early Feb. Winter saving

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Gfs looks epic late Jan early Feb. Winter saving

I/we've been teased enough with the 10+ day stuff. I don't buy it this time which is exactly why it will probably happen. Get it within 5 or 6 days and I'll jump on the Roger Smith spaceship bandwagon thing.

[Paleocene]

If this map comes anywhere CLOSE to verifying and we don't get at least an inch of snow inside the beltway by feb 10th, I'm throwing in the towel. We've got the modeled cold finally

 

[Steve25]

5 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

If this map comes anywhere CLOSE to verifying and we don't get at least an inch of snow inside the beltway by feb 10th, I'm throwing in the towel. We've got the modeled cold finally

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but that cold hasn't fully shown up on the other models recently, has it? 

[Kevin Reilly]

8 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

If this map comes anywhere CLOSE to verifying and we don't get at least an inch of snow inside the beltway by feb 10th, I'm throwing in the towel. We've got the modeled cold finally

 

Remember February 11th, 1983!

[Paleocene]

Just now, Steve25 said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but that cold hasn't fully shown up on the other models recently, has it? 

Canadian ensemble also has a half decent cold push around that time frame. I don't know (not an expert) if any of teh other ensembles/ops go past 240?

 

meanwhile euro not bad with the front end thump mid week for northern forum:

[Ji]

I created a storm thread...

https://r.tapatalk.com/shareLink/topic?url=https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58753-jan-25-front-end-threat/&share_tid=58753&share_fid=13197&share_type=t&link_source=app

[TSSN+]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

I created a storm thread...

https://r.tapatalk.com/shareLink/topic?url=https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58753-jan-25-front-end-threat/&share_tid=58753&share_fid=13197&share_type=t&link_source=app

Guess you missed the memo not to make one till Tuesday lol 

[Ji]

Guess you missed the memo not to make one till Tuesday lol 

Why? The storm is coming. It's been well modeled for days lol

[Wxdavis5784]

56 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gfs looks epic late Jan early Feb. Winter saving

Until the 18z unhappy hour

[Ji]

the euro looks awful at d10 geez...nothing like gfs with its handling of pv

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Guess you missed the memo not to make one till Tuesday lol 

Why? The storm is coming. It's been well modeled for days lol

The dumb jinx thing I am guessing.

Why not have a thread for a discrete threat, so we can focus on more pattern chasing here for the big snow that will save this winter? 

[Interstate]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

the euro looks awful at d10 geez...nothing like gfs with its handling of pv

You killed it. 

[pazzo83]

Ji strikes again

[Ruin]

1 hour ago, Paleocene said:

If this map comes anywhere CLOSE to verifying and we don't get at least an inch of snow inside the beltway by feb 10th, I'm throwing in the towel. We've got the modeled cold finally

 

iIll put 5.00 in the pot to say the cold gets pushed back a few days to a week then it just vanishes heh.

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

the euro looks awful at d10 geez...nothing like gfs with its handling of pv

lol

Hell of a dipole(rex) block. The mirror image of what we want.

[RedSky]

12z ECM is a horror show

[psuhoffman]

@Ji @CAPE ya but look at HOW the euro gets to that awful look day 10. 
It goes from this 

to this 

in 24 hours!!! Then 24 more and…

from a cold front just clearing and a full lat trough to a full on torch in 24 hours!  We used to rely on waves attacking cold but what chance do we have when the warm air masses win in a rout that quickly without there even needing to be a wave.  It’s not like that’s from some amplified cutter. That’s just ordinary return flow touting all cold from 1000 miles in 24 hours!  
 

But look HOW that happened… and yea I know this is just one projection but we’ve seen this exact progression over and over and no one is talking about it or asking WHY does this keep happening when it goes against historical wave spacing  

Look at the longwave pattern here  look at the next wave X.  Where should that go given this longwave setup?

 

Now see what actually happens, follow X

Follow X

WTF?  Why is every pac wave digging to Baja regardless of the longwave pattern.  It didn’t do that because if the pac.  The epo ridge is extending into western Canada.  The trough is east of Hawaii still, that wave should progress into the central US.  
 

Over and over systems keep digging into the SW even if the pac ridge is over the top into Canada.  The same happened in December.  The same happened 2 years ago during blocking!  The same happened over and over in 2019.  Ppl keep saying “the pac” but even when we get a favorable pac for short periods it doesn’t matter the same conus effect remains.  
 

I think the SE ridge is actually as much a cause as effect here.   That system is digging way west of where the longwave alignment suggests because the SE ridge is trying to resume and is resisting.  No one is pointing this out because it’s true much of the time the problem has been “the pac” but we’re ignoring the times we get a window where the pac jet is actually favorable the pattern over the US still ends up sucking monkey nuts  

 

 

 

[CAPE]

This is actually a pretty cold look for the MA. Problem is it's also dry.