January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[psuhoffman]

59 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Your weather memory is better than mine but for 2019 I have a distinct memory of the MJO going ape in the warm phases.  That enhanced MC convection drives a SE ridge right?  Now I'm not trying to make an "excuse" because the strengthened Pacific warm pool is one of the mechanisms that has been mentioned for how we have been losing the margins.  

First of all yes and this is from a study published in 2019 

Here we show that rapid warming over the tropical oceans during 1981–2018 has warped the MJO life cycle, with its residence time decreasing over the Indian Ocean by 3–4 days, and increasing over the Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent by 5–6 days. We find that these changes in the MJO life cycle are associated with a twofold expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool, the largest expanse of the warmest ocean temperatures on Earth. The warm pool has been expanding on average by 2.3 × 10⁵ km²(the size of Washington State) per year during 1900–2018 and at an accelerated average rate of 4 × 10⁵ km² (the size of California) per year during 1981–2018. 

So as you point out it’s circular thinking to say “the problem was the mjo not warming” because ocean warming has been shown to be causing the mjo to favor warm phases. So why is anyone confident the same thing won’t happen next El Niño?  
 

But the mjo can’t be blamed fully either. There were plenty of times the pac ridge still was in a decent spot and the pna trough kept cutting off under it instead of progressing east. Just like what happened in Dec this season!!!  I’m seeing familiar fails happen repetitively. 

[psuhoffman]

@cbmclean ugh I just realized we’re in the main thread. If you have anymore questions or points let’s continue in the other thread. 

[Daniel Boone]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

First of all yes and this is from a study published in 2019 

Here we show that rapid warming over the tropical oceans during 1981–2018 has warped the MJO life cycle, with its residence time decreasing over the Indian Ocean by 3–4 days, and increasing over the Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent by 5–6 days. We find that these changes in the MJO life cycle are associated with a twofold expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool, the largest expanse of the warmest ocean temperatures on Earth. The warm pool has been expanding on average by 2.3 × 10⁵ km²(the size of Washington State) per year during 1900–2018 and at an accelerated average rate of 4 × 10⁵ km² (the size of California) per year during 1981–2018. 

So as you point out it’s circular thinking to say “the problem was the mjo not warming” because ocean warming has been shown to be causing the mjo to favor warm phases. So why is anyone confident the same thing won’t happen next El Niño?  
 

But the mjo can’t be blamed fully either. There were plenty of times the pac ridge still was in a decent spot and the pna trough kept cutting off under it instead of progressing east. Just like what happened in Dec this season!!!  I’m seeing familiar fails happen repetitively. 

Good stuff. Thanks for posting! 

[jayyy]

Can confirm that every east coast subforum’s January 2023 thread is just as much of a dumpster fire as ours. Honestly moreso. We at least do a good job analyzing our failures. Glad to call you crazy bastards my weather fam.

[MDstorm]

So far, the only "weather model" for snowfall that one needed to follow this winter:

How Much Snow the DC Area Can Expect for Winter 2022-2023 – NBC4 Washington (nbcwashington.com)

[Ruin]

lol big stretch  warmest winters ever when 5 out of the last 6 were above normal 

[DarkSharkWX]

sadly we've trended away from an -NAO which was helping to push our boundary further south. cold rain tomorrow, maybe some front end slop on wednesday if we're lucky, and potentially something from the very end of jan to very early Feb before we torch and there's no hope for change until maybe late Feb-March if an SSWE happens and we get the downstream effects from it towards us 2-4 weeks later. even if we dont get a SSWE the SPV should still take a beating

[CAPE]

Outside of the far northern and western areas that might see some frozen this week, as depicted this period remains our best shot at something. Plenty of cold across Canada, and perhaps the boundary will be further south during this time.

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

sadly we've trended away from an -NAO which was helping to push our boundary further south. cold rain tomorrow, maybe some front end slop on wednesday if we're lucky, and potentially something from the very end of jan to very early Feb before we torch and there's no hope for change until maybe late Feb-March if an SSWE happens and we get the downstream effects from it towards us 2-4 weeks later. even if we dont get a SSWE the SPV should still take a beating

There is still a transient -NAO for the very end of the month into the first couple days of Feb on the GEFS and GEPS. The EPS was never as enthused about the idea, but overall guidance has backed off and transitions to a +NAO heading into February, for now. We shall see.

[IronTy]

10 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Know any movies where the killer murders the SE ridge?

Only in the tales that humans tell does the SE ridge lose in the end.  

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS and GEFS for midweek.  

 

[Interstate]

11 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS and GEFS for midweek.  

 

If I get 1.5 inches of snow, just like my wife, I will be happy. 

[WxUSAF]

0z euro was also fairly snowy, especially for the M/D line crew. And it’s close to being a decent front end for everyone. Euro sends the bulk of the WAA precip north of us into southern PA. If that could be a more flush hit there’s a legit chance of a 1-3” type front end.

[Solution Man]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

0z euro was also fairly snowy, especially for the M/D line crew. And it’s close to being a decent front end for everyone. Euro sends the bulk of the WAA precip north of us into southern PA. If that could be a more flush hit there’s a legit chance of a 1-3” type front end.

We also have a little time for more improvement or more disaster

[Kevin Reilly]

6 hours ago, MDstorm said:

So far, the only "weather model" for snowfall that one needed to follow this winter:

How Much Snow the DC Area Can Expect for Winter 2022-2023 – NBC4 Washington (nbcwashington.com)

Well, Doug's ideas of what this winter are going to be like are spot on basically to date.  Doug was up here in Philadelphia I liked him, and he is way better than anyone we have up here on NBC now.  Now Doug's numbers in regard to snow may be off but at least his outlook up in my neck of the woods in southern PA indicates 4-10" of snow thus far we have a trace, so I guess there is hope not to shit the blinds still. 

So far up here in southern PA we are 10.3 degrees above normal in January and right to this date the Winter of 2022-2023 is ranked the 2nd warmest on record with an average temperature of 44.6 degrees right behind the warmest winter on record in 1932 of 46.4 degrees. I am guessing that if we did not get that cold snap around Christmas, we would be looking at the warmest winter on record but as Doug said February and March could be very warm, so we aren't done yet. 

[Weather Will]

No thread midweek until 12z tomorrow, let’s not jinx it.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

13 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

No thread midweek until 12z tomorrow, let’s not jinx it.  

The person that makes a thread before Tuesday should get a lifetime ban. 

[Solution Man]

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The person that makes a thread before Tuesday should get a lifetime ban. 

Concur

[WxUSAF]

27 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

We also have a little time for more improvement or more disaster

Yea, plenty of time to shift to Binghamton.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO 

[Rtd208]

21 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The person that makes a thread before Tuesday should get a lifetime ban. 

Hopefully it's Snowman19. 

[Terpeast]

Kinda strange to see the canadian ens being the warmest out of the 3 majors in the LR. 

usually it’s the coldest. This time it’s probably correct

[AtlanticWx]

there's still hope, albeit not much —

all ensembles agree on a cool down after the 27th storm before a transient warm up before the TPV dips down come feb 1st, and ensembles + ops have been consistent on some sort of threat the first few days of feb

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GFS and EURO midweek 

 

[Solution Man]

21 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS….midweek 

 

Headed in the right direction for now, let’s see what Euro has to say. Seems like Euro set table

[Ralph Wiggum]

Roger Smith Storm showing up again on the op for early Feb. LFG!!!

[Weather Will]

Storm 2 Day 9 WB GFS

[HighStakes]

Best op run in a long time fwiw.

[yoda]

Lol I'd like what the 12z GFS is smoking for the first week of Feb 

 

 

 

 

 

[IronTy]

Bwahahaha the DC snow hole large and in charge.  I'm going to Meadow mountain on the weekend of 2/4.  Hopefully the 15" of snow is legit.