January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Maybe we should save the freakout for if it actually happens? Lol  I mean I know it's not impossible, the last 7 years, etc but...we ain't there yet, man. I wouldn't even let my brain go there unless we get closer and it starts getting support.

Question: Is it overly simplistic to say a SE ridge is caused by a warm Atlantic? Not sure I understand exactly what influences it.

The fact it’s even an option is worth noting.  That’s all. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The fact it’s even an option is worth noting.  That’s all. 

I get ya...yeah that option what just be dumbdy-dumb fail, smh So what causes an SE ridge, anyway? Warm water?

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Haven’t seen the GEPS, but hopefully it has that western ridge more onshore. GEFS keeps wobbling it west which will frustrate us.

I joked with you in a post earlier wrt western ridge but if early seasonal history is a thing, yes, frustrating. 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I get ya...yeah that option what just be dumbdy-dumb fail, smh So what causes an SE ridge, anyway? Warm water?

Chicken vs egg. Cutters pump warm air ahead of it, warms the waters, creates a ridge, which forces storms to cut… positivr feedback loop. 

It would take a lot to break it. 

[IronTy]

IronTy, "Ridgehunter", saw the bat signal for the SER go up.  Ospreys have probably already reached the NC coast.   Gonna set my hummingbird feeders out next weekend...

[Paleocene]

Euro trying for d10.  Yeet

[IronTy]

56 minutes ago, Ji said:

we had 2013-2014/2014-2015/2015-2016. We have had decent winters since. PSU just came off a 50 inch winter. Winter is in a bit of a slump but 2013-14 is pretty recent and wouldnt of happened if the Global Warming thing was off the charts. We are just in a general down cycle...we will rebound

Something's rebounding alright.  

[Chris78]

[Heisy]

In what way

Sorry photos not working for me right now, GEPS has PAC ridge farther E


.

[WxUSAF]

I’d be a little surprised if something worked out around the 21st, but not shocked and euro shows that. 

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS is loaded. completely displaces the TPV with a legit -NAO signal to boot

a -EPO/-AO/-NAO pattern like this would be quite fun

[clskinsfan]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS is loaded. completely displaces the TPV with a legit -NAO signal to boot

a -EPO/-AO/-NAO pattern like this would be quite fun

Some action on the STJ as well. Reminds me of 2010 a little bit with the displaced PV. Only 15 more days

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Some action on the STJ as well. Reminds me of 2010 a little bit with the displaced PV. Only 15 more days

Question: How do you identify an STJ at the 500mb level?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Question: How do you identify an STJ at the 500mb level?

You can kind of glean this from 500mb by noting the "bagginess" that extends into the southwest on that plot above, cutting underneath the ridging.  Sort of split-flow like.

[Chris78]

12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Question: How do you identify an STJ at the 500mb level?

That fetch from Hawaii into the SW

[GATECH]

11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Question: How do you identify an STJ at the 500mb level?

See the trough from Hawaii to off San Diego, under the ridge, That’s it.

[FamouslyHot]

With such a strong pattern we've been stuck in a -EAMT event is what we need to get the pacific in check, at least temporarily

 

[mappy]

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

We should have left “shit the blinds” as the title 

agreed

[WxUSAF]

53 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS is loaded. completely displaces the TPV with a legit -NAO signal to boot

a -EPO/-AO/-NAO pattern like this would be quite fun

All 3 ensemble suites show the broader longitudinal trough underneath a growing -NAO late in their runs.  Coupled with a -EPO/-AO, that’s a very nice look as you said. But the GEFS especially keeps that ridge farther off the west coast, which would generate more cutters before that point. And if the -NAO didn’t develop, the SE ridge would pop quickly. GEPS and EPS keep more ridging along the west coast which is far better for us.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

All 3 ensemble suites show the broader longitudinal trough underneath a growing -NAO late in their runs.  Coupled with a -EPO/-AO, that’s a very nice look as you said. But the GEFS especially keeps that ridge farther off the west coast, which would generate more cutters before that point. And if the -NAO didn’t develop, the SE ridge would pop quickly. GEPS and EPS keep more ridging along the west coast which is far better for us.

yeah, the EPS is highly favorable 

[WxUSAF]

@TSG that was a great post and please copy it over to the CC subforum. We’re going to try and keep that conversation there though.

[Kevin Reilly]

6 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Some dude in NY said one and done this year early Feb. Maybe this is setting up for it?

Yep why not February 11th 1983!

[DarkSharkWX]

Isn't there some concerns with WAR and pna ridge being too far west?

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

Isn't there some concerns with WAR and pna ridge being too far west?

Yes. Placement of that ridge is very important. Definitely risks of cold dry/warm wet if the ridge axis is farther west. But if that ridge stays along the coast and we keep the very active pattern that’s ahead, odds are good we’d get some hits.

[AtlanticWx]

WAR can help us too sometimes tbh, really just don't want it building in the 50/50 area as PSU said which looks to be the case as of now

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

Something's rebounding alright.  

This is a nice color palette change for the snowfall map...nice totals 

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This is a nice color palette change for the snowfall map...nice totals 

Jesus.  70 should be in the cards on that map.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, Heisy said:

Sorry photos not working for me right now, GEPS has PAC ridge farther E


.

Actually trended the wrong way (West) with the mean Western Ridge axis longitude vs 0z run. Soooo, the chase continues:

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

That fetch from Hawaii into the SW

Cali is fooked

[IronTy]

14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This is a nice color palette change for the snowfall map...nice totals 

Honestly at 300h+ on the GFS it could mean either +20F DFN or 20" of snow and either would be equally plausible.