January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[Paleocene]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You can't trust any specific details at that range but that is the window, AFTER the 26th Wave IF we can get a wave to ride the boundary before the pac jet retracts too much and the SE ridge pumps to kingdom come.  The question is how long is that window, where does the boundary set up, and do we have an active STJ at the right time.  But its the first time in a long time I think there is even a chance for us.  

I did notice it looks consistently colder north of us after about hour 200, which has been lacking all winter. Montreal has been raining. But I'm sure the little wave D10-11 that runs through the lakes will trend stronger into a massive cutter and pull too much warm in air front of it, so the potential threat that rides the boundary after 300H doesnt have enough cold :-D

[87storms]

How are the spring training ensembles looking?

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm actually curious about the pattern starting next weekend...can we get a 7-10 days of decent cold? Still looks split-flowy to end the month and the start of February...

After the wave on the 26th we might have a window of opportunity.  The TPV gets displaced under the blocking in northern Canada down to hear Hudson bay.  But its not a sure thing.  Actually I would still bet against us getting a significant snow from it.  Because the pac jet is retracting too much and the ridge out west is pulling back off the coast with starts to try to pump a SE ridge.  What makes this run, and some others work...is if the TPV spins long enough and gets displaced far enough south it suppresses the boundary far enough that one of the waves can get under us and there would be cold north of the boundary in that setup with a PV that close to us.  It COULD work at least.  But we still will need a lot to go right, its not a high probability, but its way better than anything we've had so far.  We've scored wins with worse over the years.  

[TSSN+]

Uk still on the snow train midweek 

[Interstate]

3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

How are the spring training ensembles looking?

Warm and Dry

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS is much improved with the confluence for midweek next week

[87storms]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

Warm and Dry

Sounds awesome tbh.

Though GFS does look more ripe for snow chances starting in a week.  This might just be one of those winters where we had to can-kick into prime climo to get frozen.

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS is much improved with the confluence for midweek next week

But isn't that vort stronger and going/about to go negative already, suggesting it could cut?

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

But isn't that vort stronger and going/about to go negative already, suggesting it could cut?

Yep, as soon as that tilt goes neg, it’s going to cut. 

[mappy]

STOP BICKERING WITH EACH OTHER

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

But isn't that vort stronger and going/about to go negative already, suggesting it could cut?

Gunna cut no matter what. Need more confluence to help with front end thump. 

[Interstate]

I will save everyone the pain. This is what every system will do for the rest of the winter. 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Gunna cut no matter what. Need more confluence to help with front end thump. 

Which I’ll take. 

[mattie g]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Gunna cut no matter what. Need more confluence to help with front end thump. 

We need Yellowstone to explode in order to get enough help.

[Ralph Wiggum]

I see the Feb 2-4 Roger Smith storm is still alive and well on the GFS.

If this dude nails our only snow event of the season due to planetary alignments and solar waves I will be convinced he is an alien from another universe. Seriously, he does this like once every year months in advance.

[mattie g]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

I see the Feb 2-4 Roger Smith storm is still alive and well on the GFS.

If this dude nails our only snow event of the season due to planetary alignments and solar waves I will be convinced he is an alien from another universe. Seriously, he does this like once every year months in advance.

My 5-year-old daughter has been locked in on watching Jupiter and Mars every night for the last two months. She's an "interesting" child, so I think she might be channeling Roger's alien brainwaves.

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, nj2va said:

But isn't that vort stronger and going/about to go negative already, suggesting it could cut?

If you want a front end thump before a change to rain, that's what you want

I think everyone would take that at this point

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Sorry mother mappy. Thanks for the cleanup--have a blessed day.

Stop calling me mother mappy. Its sexist and I don't appreciate it. 

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

If you want a front end thump before a change to rain, that's what you want

I think everyone would take that at this point

Absolutely!  I wanted to make sure I was reading that right though.

[WinterWxLuvr]

It’s a modeled vortex, it’s a modeled confluence, and it’s a modeled cut. December 2012, Euro models a low to be in sw Minnesota. It ends up in east Tennnessee. 
 

It was “The Chill Storm”

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z  Can ensembles look pretty good to me for midweek.

[IronTy]

Forsythias at the top of my driveway are in bloom as of this morning.  Crab grass won't be far behind.  Guess I better sharpen the mower blade.  

[Paleocene]

Just now, IronTy said:

Forsythias at the top of my driveway are in bloom as of this morning.  Crab grass won't be far behind.  Guess I better sharpen the mower blade.  

I noticed daffodils sprouting all over the place last week/this week. Snowdrops gonna bloom soon... crocuses before we know it.

[NorthArlington101]

I don't think anyone cares much about the GEPS but it has been growing increasingly in the midweek storm, run-over-run. 

Think @Weather Willbeat me to this punch

[IronTy]

2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

I noticed daffodils sprouting all over the place last week/this week. Snowdrops gonna bloom soon... crocuses before we know it.

Don't sweat it.  GFS has the 300hr storm in play.  The storm(4) after the storm(3) after the storm(2) after the storm(1).  Crocuses will wither at the threat.  

 

 

[WxUSAF]

Interesting the GEPS likes midweek because the 12z GGEM finally loaded and cuts it west of Detroit. I think there’s still some hope for front end slop from that, but nothing more. Any substantial frozen-dominant system has to wait until after. 

[NorthArlington101]

Latest GEPS run has more confluence run-over-run but a stronger vort -- guess that sounds like it works re: front end thump.

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Latest GEPS run has more confluence run-over-run but a stronger vort -- guess that sounds like it works re: front end thump.

Would be nice to get a front end thump Wednesday to cancel school or just enough to cover the grass for a bit, its a low bar.

[HighStakes]

A lot of the worst winters still managed 1 storm that affected mostly the entire region. They were centered around late January/ early February. Hopefully we can scrap something together over the next 2 weeks.

Here's a few:

1. January 2002. Happened on the infamous day of the tuck rule game with Brady.

2. Early February 1992. 

3. Early February 1995. 

4. Early February 1997.

5.  Late January 2008.

1995 storm was the best of the bunch but anything at this point is acceptable.

[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Interesting the GEPS likes midweek because the 12z GGEM finally loaded and cuts it west of Detroit. I think there’s still some hope for front end slop from that, but nothing more. Any substantial frozen-dominant system has to wait until after. 

The GEPS actually did shift towards a cut west, unfortunately. Last GEPS talk I'll add - here are member lows + what its actually outputting. Mix of hits because of a good (coastal) track and some thumps. This doesn't paint the *full* picture -- if people want I could make gifs of both plots. But it's the GEPS so maybe not worth the effort haha