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January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

psuhoffman

By psuhoffman,
in Mid Atlantic

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DE2PA

DE2PA

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13 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I remember literally falling into a depression in high school from the March 2001 bust. That doesn’t happen anymore. I still get a little seasonal depression in April, but I think that’s just because my routine of checking models 20x a day ends. I think a part of me loves this hobby because when a big event happens it takes us away from the worries of real life for a few days. As a kid I loved the hype and how every thing got shut down from a snowstorm. Still do I’ll I guess. If it doesn’t snow this year it will suck, I’ll be a little angry, but that’s about it…


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This ^^

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You will all be glad to know I can no longer make my “when it hasn’t snowed an inch in Manchester by this date the winter was this bad” posts anymore.    Beautiful day at snowshoe 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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14 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I remember literally falling into a depression in high school from the March 2001 bust. That doesn’t happen anymore. I still get a little seasonal depression in April, but I think that’s just because my routine of checking models 20x a day ends. I think a part of me loves this hobby because when a big event happens it takes us away from the worries of real life for a few days. As a kid I loved the hype and how every thing got shut down from a snowstorm. Still do I’ll I guess. If it doesn’t snow this year it will suck, I’ll be a little angry, but that’s about it…
 

It helps me that April has spring break to plan, and I love spring skiing season in New England so often I am occupied planning multiple weekend trips up to Sugarbush or Sugarloaf to get some last turns in.  April skiing up there can be awesome.  

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DE2PA

DE2PA

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It helps me that April has spring break to plan, and I love spring skiing season in New England so often I am occupied planning multiple weekend trips up to Sugarbush or Sugarloaf to get some last turns in.  April skiing up there can be awesome.  

Sugarloaf Maine? I’ll be there next month.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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6 minutes ago, DE2PA said:

Sugarloaf Maine? I’ll be there next month.

Yea, by far my favorite east coast mountain.  But I prefer it late season.  Mid winter it can be icy and cold as hell and it rarely gets as much snow as Vermont.  But it holds snow pack in spring amazing and so April and even May it is awesome.  

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dallen7908

dallen7908

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I spend way too much time checking nordic conditions in New England and Quebec.  Here are the latest for Sugarloaf

 

Good morning all, Due to the snowstorm we are continuing to groom our trails. Trails are expected to open at 10AM this morning. Please check back then for groomed trails. We will groom and set classic tracks on. Warning hut, 7 bridges, snowbrook, sunny breeze, moose pond loop, inferno. We will be checking on bobcat alley and the highland trail in hopes we can have them open for this weekend. We will keep you posted on progress, and update you on our plans for this weekend. Ice rink will be closed until the snow has stopped falling and we have cleared it off. Thank you all! Be safe, think snow! ❄️  ~01/20/23 07:11 am

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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1 minute ago, Interstate said:

If they have snow. 

Yea we will see... but a few times they went into mid winter with almost nothing like this and always recover at some point.  They hold snow pack up there really well...it just doesn't warm up even in a torch pattern once you get into NW Maine.  Even super cutters end up mixed events up there that don't really kill the pack much.  So they just need a 2-3 week period somewhere in winter where they get dumped with like 50" of snow...then they make snow and Spring skiing will be ok.  My guess is they get enough snow the next month that it ends up OK.  Actually...if we get a lot of snow here that's bad for them...they've had almost nothing...if the boundary ends up down here and they are dry now...then it warms up after...that would be a total disaster for them.  

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

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39 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I remember literally falling into a depression in high school from the March 2001 bust. That doesn’t happen anymore. I still get a little seasonal depression in April, but I think that’s just because my routine of checking models 20x a day ends. I think a part of me loves this hobby because when a big event happens it takes us away from the worries of real life for a few days. As a kid I loved the hype and how every thing got shut down from a snowstorm. Still do I’ll I guess. If it doesn’t snow this year it will suck, I’ll be a little angry, but that’s about it…


.

Are we sharing the same emotions/mind bro? Couldn't have said it any better!

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brooklynwx99

brooklynwx99

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11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Long term MJO forecast showing some possibilities of making it to 8/1. Seems it would time well with the expected beatdown of the PV. Maybe we can score in the mid February/early March timeframe. I am so sick of kicking the can at this point. 

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a beatdown is a pretty tame way to put it. I can't really remember the last time I've seen a disruption like this from extended ensembles. the SPV is gone here

obviously this stuff is very mercurial, but it's worth keeping an eye on for late winter shenanigans. in the meantime, we can focus on stuff through the first week of February

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-avg-nhemi-z10_anom-6160000.thumb.png.eb06df489b24e327d2a0a4644f945cd5.png

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dallen7908

dallen7908

Posted
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9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Long term MJO forecast showing some possibilities of making it to 8/1. Seems it would time well with the expected beatdown of the PV. Maybe we can score in the mid February/early March timeframe. I am so sick of kicking the can at this point. 

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That's encouraging (I think).  Hopefully, it doesn't get waylaid during its torturous journey through 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 before reaching the promised land post-Valentine's day

 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

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48 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

I spend way too much time checking nordic conditions in New England and Quebec.  Here are the latest for Sugarloaf

 

Good morning all, Due to the snowstorm we are continuing to groom our trails. Trails are expected to open at 10AM this morning. Please check back then for groomed trails. We will groom and set classic tracks on. Warning hut, 7 bridges, snowbrook, sunny breeze, moose pond loop, inferno. We will be checking on bobcat alley and the highland trail in hopes we can have them open for this weekend. We will keep you posted on progress, and update you on our plans for this weekend. Ice rink will be closed until the snow has stopped falling and we have cleared it off. Thank you all! Be safe, think snow! ❄️  ~01/20/23 07:11 am

"Be safe, think snow!" Haha Love it!

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GFS is trending towards more confluence, which helps for a thump scenario

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh96_trend.thumb.gif.81fee82dfd35643f7521aca3ba6a384c.gif

yea cause this wave spacing

1.thumb.png.59505d376dd4067a1cc75cc4bbae99b7.png

With this confluence/flow over the top

2.thumb.png.3e46904c196c6f2754703ad127f904f2.png

Just isn't good enough on January 25th.  

None of that is the problem.  This is like blaming a loss on the receiver who had 9 catches for 145 yards and 2 TDs by saying...well we just needed him to have 12 catches for 200 yards and 3 touchdowns.  

Maybe the problem is just simple....  on January 25 with a damn perfect setup for an WAA front end thump...the boundary even right behind the last wave never makes it south of the Mason Dixon line...here it is before the southerly flow even begins from the next wave.  It's game over before it even starts. 

3.thumb.png.03cf4ae9af3fe7d146cb8fdc4b3292b3.png

Its just too warm.  

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Crappy airmass in front and a HP off the coast is a little tough. Would need more resistance up top.

1674648000-8rAiZaJdzJE.png

1674648000-rpg1ewNtTJU.png

There isn't really a true high off the coast...the real high is up over Quebec and banana over the top exactly like we want it.  The high to the east is really just an artifact of there having to be higher pressure to the east of the approaching wave.  That's always going to be the case...but its not the problem.  Your first point...there just isn't any cold in front of this wave...is the whole problem.  We can pick apart these different levels and progs all we want but I could throw up a dozen examples where at H5 and H7 you could see an exact same synoptic setup and it was a 3-6" snowstorm in Baltimore, the difference was IT WAS COLDER lol.  

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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7 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Forget next week and come live in digital blue fantasyland with me! Where it always snows!

 

image.thumb.png.0cd0444c759bec4aa302a49368f34d95.png

 

You can't trust any specific details at that range but that is the window, AFTER the 26th Wave IF we can get a wave to ride the boundary before the pac jet retracts too much and the SE ridge pumps to kingdom come.  The question is how long is that window, where does the boundary set up, and do we have an active STJ at the right time.  But its the first time in a long time I think there is even a chance for us.  

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Paleocene

Paleocene

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You can't trust any specific details at that range but that is the window, AFTER the 26th Wave IF we can get a wave to ride the boundary before the pac jet retracts too much and the SE ridge pumps to kingdom come.  The question is how long is that window, where does the boundary set up, and do we have an active STJ at the right time.  But its the first time in a long time I think there is even a chance for us.  

I did notice it looks consistently colder north of us after about hour 200, which has been lacking all winter. Montreal has been raining. But I'm sure the little wave D10-11 that runs through the lakes will trend stronger into a massive cutter and pull too much warm in air front of it, so the potential threat that rides the boundary after 300H doesnt have enough cold :-D

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